January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[WestBabylonWeather]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My friend took a photo of the frozen Great South Bay yesterday just before landing.
 

I’m going there now 

[uofmiami]

1.3 in Syosset & -1.7 in Muttontown this morning.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Radiational cooling did its job last night. Starting the day at -7 this morning. 

Off to get the DN and Skeeter ice boats ready for this afternoon

Send us a picture, or maybe a short video!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

It wasn't a lock here and I can radiate pretty good, especially with snow on the ground, low of +1 (+.6). I've been dead calm since 3am, clouds must've messed it up. Meh for me when compared to earlier in the week. I did beat KMGJ which appears have only went to +2. 

Was zero at midnight and then the clouds rolled in and that was that. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Up to 11F with very light snow falling. 

[psv88]

44 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

1.3 in Syosset & -1.7 in Muttontown this morning.

-1.6 here this morning. 
 

I figured being on this hill would hurt me on RC nights but I guess not. third coldest temp I’ve recorded on any weather station since 1994…

-4 in 2018(?)

-2 in 1994

-1.6 today 

[lee59]

4 here last night

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just went to Robert Moses. Bays are indeed frozen. Also saw over a dozen deer 

[MANDA]

Only dropped to 1 here.  Zero at my location still remains elusive.  Very surprising with the snow pack.  In this mornings case high clouds started to roll in pre-dawn based on satellite loop and killed the chances of a zero.  Was 2 degrees at 3am but only dropped 1 degree from that point.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop180.html

List of coldest NJ mins:

 

[ForestHillWx]

2 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

+3.5°F for the low here. Looks like -2°F at Shirely and -9°F at Westhampton for lows.

-8°F in Toms River

-9°F in Somerville

-11°F in Morristown

Unofficial numbers though

Impressive cold nearby; perhaps the lower elevations (MMU/Somerset) acted like a sink. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m going there now 

A great drone video just got posted this morning.

 

 

[BoulderWX]

21 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Impressive cold nearby; perhaps the lower elevations (MMU/Somerset) acted like a sink. 

Wait, -11 in Morristown? Slept through that 

[Prue11]

Hampton bays were -8

[Prue11]

I dropped to -3. Being at the center of the island really helped drop temps last night/this morning 

[Stormlover74]

Crazy seeing Sussex climb to 11 at 6am due to clouds rolling in. Normally they'd be one of the cold spots. Mmu was 22 degrees colder

[Rwes1]

Love the deep winter feel. My oil burner could use a break though! I suppose it all averages out over the years.
 

Not too often do you see this many people ice fishing out here, pretty cool to be able to take advantage of this cold stretch.

 

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Only dropped to 1 here.  Zero at my location still remains elusive.  Very surprising with the snow pack.  In this mornings case high clouds started to roll in pre-dawn based on satellite loop and killed the chances of a zero.  Was 2 degrees at 3am but only dropped 1 degree from that point.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop180.html

List of coldest NJ mins:

 

Maybe Walpack was closer to -40° in January 1994 with the great cold air drainage that location gets. Too bad they didn’t have readings there before 2004. It’s significantly colder there than Sussex, NJ with radiational cooling which we have a longer climate record for. 

Climatological Data for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - January 1994
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	862	86	-	-	1263	0	4.34	39.0	-
Average	28.7	3.2	16.2	-9.6	-	-	-	-	9.0
Normal	34.9	16.7	25.8	-	1215	0	3.50	11.6
1994-01-01	27	M	M	M	M	M	0.00	0.0	1
1994-01-02	40	M	M	M	M	M	T	T	T
1994-01-03	45	23	34.0	7.0	31	0	0.00	0.0	T
1994-01-04	25	20	22.5	-4.3	42	0	0.34	4.0	5
1994-01-05	26	18	22.0	-4.7	43	0	M	3.0	7
1994-01-06	32	12	22.0	-4.5	43	0	M	0.0	6
1994-01-07	15	11	13.0	-13.4	52	0	0.07	1.0	5
1994-01-08	15	10	12.5	-13.7	52	0	0.82	7.0	M
1994-01-09	30	7	18.5	-7.6	46	0	T	T	8
1994-01-10	34	7	20.5	-5.5	44	0	0.00	0.0	7
1994-01-11	24	-1	11.5	-14.4	53	0	M	M	7
1994-01-12	28	12	20.0	-5.8	45	0	0.00	0.0	6
1994-01-13	33	16	24.5	-1.2	40	0	0.39	6.0	10
1994-01-14	38	27	32.5	6.9	32	0	0.00	0.0	M
1994-01-15	35	3	19.0	-6.5	46	0	0.17	2.0	7
1994-01-16	M	-8	M	M	M	M	T	0.0	6
1994-01-17	14	M	M	M	M	M	0.00	0.0	6
1994-01-18	31	4	17.5	-7.8	47	0	1.36	12.0	M
1994-01-19	31	-11	10.0	-15.3	55	0	0.00	0.0	M
1994-01-20	8	-16	-4.0	-29.3	69	0	0.00	0.0	17
1994-01-21	11	-29	-9.0	-34.2	74	0	0.00	0.0	17
1994-01-22	12	-28	-8.0	-33.2	73	0	0.00	0.0	17
1994-01-23	30	4	17.0	-8.2	48	0	0.00	0.0	16
1994-01-24	33	M	M	M	M	M	0.00	0.0	16
1994-01-25	47	30	38.5	13.3	26	0	0.00	0.0	16
1994-01-26	34	9	21.5	-3.8	43	0	0.31	4.0	12
1994-01-27	12	-15	-1.5	-26.8	66	0	0.12	M	13
1994-01-28	28	-15	6.5	-18.8	58	0	M	M	11
1994-01-29	54	-28	13.0	-12.4	52	0	0.76	M	M
1994-01-30	39	19	29.0	3.5	36	0	0.00	0.0	M
1994-01-31	31	5	18.0	-7.5	47	0	0.00	0.0	M

https://www.njweather.org/station/79

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

+3.5°F for the low here. Looks like -2°F at Shirely and -9°F at Westhampton for lows.

-8°F in Toms River

-9°F in Somerville

-11°F in Morristown

Unofficial numbers though

I think FOX got to -10

 

They also went from -5 to 14 in 1 hour like usual lol 

[donsutherland1]

Some photos of the Hudson River from Kingsland Point Park, Sleepy Hollow, NY:

[tdp146]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

A great drone video just got posted this morning.

 

 

This posted this morning but was probably taken a day or two ago. I drove over the bridge this afternoon and those open patches of water in the foreground are closed up. And most of the open water in background is frozen now too. 

[donsutherland1]

January is concluding with a monthly mean temperature of 30.4° (3.3° below the 1991-2020 baseline and 2.2° below the 1981-2010 baseline). January 2026 is the coldest month since January 2022 when the monthly average temperature was 30.3°.

The January 24-31 period has had a mean temperature of 16.9°. That is the coldest eight-day period since December 31, 2017-January 7, 2018 when the eight-day average temperature was 16.4°. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate tomorrow into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least next weekend.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +19.18 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.880 today. 

 

[TriPol]

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January is concluding with a monthly mean temperature of 30.4° (3.3° below the 1991-2020 baseline and 2.2° below the 1981-2010 baseline). January 2026 is the coldest month since January 2022 when the monthly average temperature was 30.3°.

The January 24-31 period has had a mean temperature of 16.9°. That is the coldest eight-day period since December 31, 2017-January 7, 2018 when the eight-day average temperature was 16.4°. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate tomorrow into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least next weekend.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +19.18 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.880 today. 

 

How much longer is the La Nina supposed to last for? Any chance it impacts tornado season in the midwest?

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

How much longer is the La Nina supposed to last for? Any chance it impacts tornado season in the midwest?

It's fading and will continue to fade during February. There will likely be above normal tornado activity during March-May.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's fading and will continue to fade during February. There will likely be above normal tornado activity during March-May.

So if there was a year to go storm chasing... this could be the year.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

So if there was a year to go storm chasing... this could be the year.

There should certainly be opportunities.

[SnowGoose69]

ISP nearly got that first below 0 since 1988.  I think a big reason they rarely go that low anymore is more development in that area since back in the 80s

[donsutherland1]

January finished with a mean temperature of 30.4° (3.3° below normal) in New York City's Central Park.

[psv88]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

ISP nearly got that first below 0 since 1988.  I think a big reason they rarely go that low anymore is more development in that area since back in the 80s

Not sure about that. Many areas of the island dipped below 0 last night. The wind stayed up for them

[EasternLI]

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Finished up the month at 29.7 average, crazy considering we had a fairly sizable mild period which feels like a distant memory now. 

1/26 to present is averaging 16.3F with a max of 27! Low max was 1F from last night. 

Just absolute kid in a candy store this winter, even if not quite prolific for now the winter vibe since December has been a gift in the 2020’s.