gravitylover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Could be some interesting parallels to 1994 ahead this and next (1/25) week. Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Could be some interesting parallels to 1994 ahead this and next (1/25) week. Great 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Very helpful - I hadn't tracked I like that this is out to 5 days. Definitely have to factor in and not waste too much time on the GFS. Thank You! The EC-AIFS looks like it had the best forecast for today from earlier this week between the overamplified GFS and too suppressed Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 We'll see how things progress with the coldest air on this side starting next week and overrunning potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looks like deep Winter out there this morning and with the well advertised Arctic cold coming and additional snow and ice threats as well it is not going anywhere anytime soon. Going to be some hefty heating bills coming up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Gfs and AI very different for next sunday. Regular gfs hits the southeast then out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Will be interesting to follow Don’s daily summaries over the next week to see where the January temperatures are headed. Only one direction….down. I would say we easily reverse the positive departures. Only question is how much below normal for the month do we go. I will take the over on -2. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Gfs and AI very different for next sunday. Regular gfs hits the southeast then out to sea Yeah too much cold/suppression. The AO could go -4. This could be a big snow opportunity for the SE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Will be interesting to follow Don’s daily summaries over the next week to see where the January temperatures are headed. Only one direction….down. I would say we easily reverse the positive departures. Only question is how much below normal for the month do we go. I will take the over on -2. First time in awhile that we can say that we're having REAL WINTER. Last winter we finally saw some colder weather with average to slightly below average temps for the winter, but we didn't get much snow. This winter we're getting the snow to go along with the cold. And man, does that long range look cold. The last week of January could be our coldest week in many years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: First time in awhile that we can say that we're having REAL WINTER. Last winter we finally saw some colder weather with average to slightly below average temps for the winter, but we didn't get much snow. This winter we're getting the snow to go along with the cold. And man, does that long range look cold. The last week of January could be our coldest week in many years. I'm glad we got extra firewood this year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah too much cold/suppression. The AO could go -4. This could be a big snow opportunity for the SE again. Yeah cmc has back to back events for Tennessee and NC. Someone will end up with a foot plus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Could be some interesting parallels to 1994 ahead this and next (1/25) week.Getting me excited now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 That guy seems to have a very strong cold bias, or least pushes it to get eyeballs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Jan 28th-30th has some legs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 57 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Too much cold is never a good thing. It only leads to suppression depression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Gfs has ridiculous cold air . Not sure if its overdoing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The suppression is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, SnoSki14 said: The suppression is overdone. Ensembles are further north . It most likely is. We will get very cold but below 0 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, Yanksfan said: Too much cold is never a good thing. It only leads to suppression depression. not in 94 it didn't, or 96. never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 @MANDA has noted this for the past week. The cold load in AK/Yukon and the Northwest territory is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Aifs looks really nice for next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Aifs looks really nice for next weekend PNA will be positive and MJO moves to phase 8. Multiple factors aligning for something big. And some winters it just wants to snow. We've been seeing that so far this season. Yes no biggies yet but it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 42 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: not in 94 it didn't, or 96. never know. Good point. Trough alignment is also a factor in these setups. I remember when PD 2 commenced it was a mere 9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 That is a nice plume of moisture to our south over the eastern Carolina's. This storm could have been a real contender if there was some phasing involved and the low was closer in and tracked to near or just inside of the benchmark. As it is all that deep moisture is going to slide out to our south east. Just saying what could have been. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro AI has a snowstorm for next Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 minutes ago, Yanksfan said: Euro AI has a snowstorm for next Sunday. Nearly identical to GFS AI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nearly identical to GFS AI It’s good that the AI models show this. They have been very reliable lately. On the flip side the OP GFS and EURO have been lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Jan 28th-30th has some legs Yes. I agree. I think the window.Is 1/28-2/1. If (IF) the long range modeling is correct. Then after 2/1 I, think the EPO floodgates open and entire CONUS goes mild for awhile 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Snow will redevelop and then continue into tonight. By the time the storm departs, New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 2"-4" of snow. Parts of interior southeastern New York State across Connecticut into southeastern New England will likely see 3"-6" on account of higher snow-liquid ratios. Some 8" amounts are possible in southeastern New England. Tomorrow will be brisk with highs in the lower 30s. Arctic air will move into the region on tomorrow night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Another shot of cold air could arrive Thursday or Friday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. Temperatures will remain below normal through next week. After January 20th, conditions could become favorable for potentially larger snowfalls, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +22.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.660 today. The PNA was +1.107. That's the highest value since November 1, 2025 when the PNA was +1.698.The last time the PNA was at least this high on January 18th was 2014 when the PNA was +1.263. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (-1.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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