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January 2026 OBS and Discussion

TriPol

By TriPol,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Three photos from Armonk during this evening's snow squall and a short video: 

wdrag
wdrag

Noticed little or no comment and no wind advisories for what I think will be a notable 1-5 hour burst of wind this evening that impacts air travel an maybe a few downed branches-power outages... I thi

donsutherland1
donsutherland1

PSV88, Rest assured, I have a thick skin. I don't take it personally. I hope he also remains here, too. 

Posted Images

BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm closing in on 5 inches as is most of Orange County in the 4-5 range. Kudos to the HRRR from yesterday.

Great. Now that damn model is gonna live off this one win for decades. Its the Roger Dorn of models.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hoping these little events are the precursor to an actual snowstorm in late Jan. 

Hard to believe its been 5 years since our last 12"+ snowstorm.  

Tomorrow will be our first Miller A storm in several years.

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

obviously nothing is guaranteed, but that is what you want to see if you are big game hunting

I'm legit thinking that Aleutian low pulses the +PNA again beyond that too. MJO would actually support it too. Good potential for a legit stretch I think. It just needs to produce. 

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

I'm legit thinking that Aleutian low pulses the +PNA again beyond that too. MJO would actually support it too. Good potential for a legit stretch I think. It just needs to produce. 

it probably moderates for a week as the Pacific jet overextends but you'd probably get another window as it retracts

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

QPF amounts in New York City were in line with the guidance with 0.17" being recorded. Both the NBM and ECMWF fared best. However, 0.16" fell over a 2-hour period rather than the 3-4 hour spread that had been shown on the guidance. On account of the heavier rates, temperatures dropped to the wet bulb temperature (32°) during the height of the precipitation rather than the above freezing figures that had been shown on the guidance.

image.png.64e1f8565869d288f0b0522448384c03.png

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Following today's snowfall, somewhat cooler air will move in tonight, setting the stage for another winter event tomorrow.

A coastal storm will develop off the Southeast coast and then track toward but perhaps just south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. In a change from recent days, the latest guidance brings the storm closer to the coast than had previously been shown. As a result, New York City and nearby areas will likely see 1"-3" of snow tomorrow into tomorrow night with some locally higher amounts around 4". There is a risk of mixed precipitation or rain for at least part of the event on Long Island, the Jersey shore, and perhaps into New York City and nearb areas. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the storm's track and rate of development.

Highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on tomorrow and Monday. The temperature will fall toward or near freezing during tomorrow's snowfall. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least most of next week. 

After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for snowfall, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +27.70 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.554 today. The PNA was +1.067, which is the highest since November 2, 2025 when the PNA was +1.071.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.6° (-1.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

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