January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[SnowGoose69]

GFS is likely too amped with the storm idea.  I am more worried about suppression problems overall than being too far north

[wthrmn654]

Man there's some hints of some seriously  cold in about a week!  Near 0 to below 0 in places

[[email protected]]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Man there's some hints of some seriously  cold in about a week!  Near 0 to below 0 in places

What I would do for it to get to or go below 0 in the park!

[WestBabylonWeather]

On 1/8/2026 at 12:41 PM, Krs4Lfe said:

Too much energy flying around. With a low in the great lakes, nothing is coming up the coast. 

Looks like it may

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

22 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I'm closing in on 5 inches as is most of Orange County in the 4-5 range. Kudos to the HRRR from yesterday.

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm closing in on 5 inches as is most of Orange County in the 4-5 range. Kudos to the HRRR from yesterday.

Great. Now that damn model is gonna live off this one win for decades. Its the Roger Dorn of models.

[SnoSki14]

Hoping these little events are the precursor to an actual snowstorm in late Jan. 

Hard to believe its been 5 years since our last 12"+ snowstorm.  

[Jersey_Snowhole]

[brooklynwx99]

this is eye popping. classic MECS preloading and pattern progression with the retrograding/decaying Scandi block, rising PNA, departing 50/50 ULL and amping trough over the E US

[brooklynwx99]

obviously nothing is guaranteed, but that is what you want to see if you are big game hunting

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

obviously nothing is guaranteed, but that is what you want to see if you are big game hunting

Best pattern in 5 years 

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Great. Now that damn model is gonna live off this one win for decades. Its the Roger Dorn of models.

I will post its forecast for tomorrow 

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hoping these little events are the precursor to an actual snowstorm in late Jan. 

Hard to believe its been 5 years since our last 12"+ snowstorm.  

Tomorrow will be our first Miller A storm in several years.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Lets do Feb 2010 all over again . Got 40 inches that month.

[EasternLI]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

obviously nothing is guaranteed, but that is what you want to see if you are big game hunting

I'm legit thinking that Aleutian low pulses the +PNA again beyond that too. MJO would actually support it too. Good potential for a legit stretch I think. It just needs to produce. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

I'm legit thinking that Aleutian low pulses the +PNA again beyond that too. MJO would actually support it too. Good potential for a legit stretch I think. It just needs to produce. 

it probably moderates for a week as the Pacific jet overextends but you'd probably get another window as it retracts

[MANDA]

I'm waiting to see the first "buckle up" of the season any minute now.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I'm waiting to see the first "buckle up" of the season any minute now.

 

[donsutherland1]

QPF amounts in New York City were in line with the guidance with 0.17" being recorded. Both the NBM and ECMWF fared best. However, 0.16" fell over a 2-hour period rather than the 3-4 hour spread that had been shown on the guidance. On account of the heavier rates, temperatures dropped to the wet bulb temperature (32°) during the height of the precipitation rather than the above freezing figures that had been shown on the guidance.

[Rjay]

Gfs remains super active while the euro and candian continue to be snooze fests in the medium and long range.  I would like to see some legit threats pop up on the other guidance.  

[Rjay]

With that said I def like this look

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Following today's snowfall, somewhat cooler air will move in tonight, setting the stage for another winter event tomorrow.

A coastal storm will develop off the Southeast coast and then track toward but perhaps just south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. In a change from recent days, the latest guidance brings the storm closer to the coast than had previously been shown. As a result, New York City and nearby areas will likely see 1"-3" of snow tomorrow into tomorrow night with some locally higher amounts around 4". There is a risk of mixed precipitation or rain for at least part of the event on Long Island, the Jersey shore, and perhaps into New York City and nearb areas. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the storm's track and rate of development.

Highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on tomorrow and Monday. The temperature will fall toward or near freezing during tomorrow's snowfall. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least most of next week. 

After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for snowfall, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +27.70 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.554 today. The PNA was +1.067, which is the highest since November 2, 2025 when the PNA was +1.071.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.6° (-1.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.