January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[SnowGoose69]

GFS is likely too amped with the storm idea.  I am more worried about suppression problems overall than being too far north

[wthrmn654]

Man there's some hints of some seriously  cold in about a week!  Near 0 to below 0 in places

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6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Man there's some hints of some seriously  cold in about a week!  Near 0 to below 0 in places

What I would do for it to get to or go below 0 in the park!

[WestBabylonWeather]

On 1/8/2026 at 12:41 PM, Krs4Lfe said:

Too much energy flying around. With a low in the great lakes, nothing is coming up the coast. 

Looks like it may

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

22 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I'm closing in on 5 inches as is most of Orange County in the 4-5 range. Kudos to the HRRR from yesterday.

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm closing in on 5 inches as is most of Orange County in the 4-5 range. Kudos to the HRRR from yesterday.

Great. Now that damn model is gonna live off this one win for decades. Its the Roger Dorn of models.

[SnoSki14]

Hoping these little events are the precursor to an actual snowstorm in late Jan. 

Hard to believe its been 5 years since our last 12"+ snowstorm.  

[Jersey_Snowhole]

[brooklynwx99]

this is eye popping. classic MECS preloading and pattern progression with the retrograding/decaying Scandi block, rising PNA, departing 50/50 ULL and amping trough over the E US

[brooklynwx99]

obviously nothing is guaranteed, but that is what you want to see if you are big game hunting

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

obviously nothing is guaranteed, but that is what you want to see if you are big game hunting

Best pattern in 5 years 

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Great. Now that damn model is gonna live off this one win for decades. Its the Roger Dorn of models.

I will post its forecast for tomorrow 

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hoping these little events are the precursor to an actual snowstorm in late Jan. 

Hard to believe its been 5 years since our last 12"+ snowstorm.  

Tomorrow will be our first Miller A storm in several years.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Lets do Feb 2010 all over again . Got 40 inches that month.

[EasternLI]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

obviously nothing is guaranteed, but that is what you want to see if you are big game hunting

I'm legit thinking that Aleutian low pulses the +PNA again beyond that too. MJO would actually support it too. Good potential for a legit stretch I think. It just needs to produce. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

I'm legit thinking that Aleutian low pulses the +PNA again beyond that too. MJO would actually support it too. Good potential for a legit stretch I think. It just needs to produce. 

it probably moderates for a week as the Pacific jet overextends but you'd probably get another window as it retracts

[MANDA]

I'm waiting to see the first "buckle up" of the season any minute now.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I'm waiting to see the first "buckle up" of the season any minute now.

 

[donsutherland1]

QPF amounts in New York City were in line with the guidance with 0.17" being recorded. Both the NBM and ECMWF fared best. However, 0.16" fell over a 2-hour period rather than the 3-4 hour spread that had been shown on the guidance. On account of the heavier rates, temperatures dropped to the wet bulb temperature (32°) during the height of the precipitation rather than the above freezing figures that had been shown on the guidance.