January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Most of our thaws put us in the 50s. The January thaws in 2020 and 2023 were insane. 65-70 for most of us. Was a telltale sign that winter was finished. 2024 was a bit more muted, and January 2021 and January 2022 were low 50s for the thaw, nothing too crazy, and we went back to wintry conditions after that. I'm certain we'll crack 50 next week, but anything above mid to upper 50s and that's usually a bad sign. 

This is wrong

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but bam bam said...

Pattern change around the 12th on the models. Epo goes negative. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Most of our thaws put us in the 50s. The January thaws in 2020 and 2023 were insane. 65-70 for most of us. Was a telltale sign that winter was finished. 2024 was a bit more muted, and January 2021 and January 2022 were low 50s for the thaw, nothing too crazy, and we went back to wintry conditions after that. I'm certain we'll crack 50 next week, but anything above mid to upper 50s and that's usually a bad sign. 

26 winters would like to reclaim their snowstorms.

[psv88]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Most of our thaws put us in the 50s. The January thaws in 2020 and 2023 were insane. 65-70 for most of us. Was a telltale sign that winter was finished. 2024 was a bit more muted, and January 2021 and January 2022 were low 50s for the thaw, nothing too crazy, and we went back to wintry conditions after that. I'm certain we'll crack 50 next week, but anything above mid to upper 50s and that's usually a bad sign. 

Your posts are usually bad. But this is not even accurate, at all. We had a big torch after the 96 blizzard and had a record setting winter. 
 

we all get that you want to piss in everyone’s corn flakes, but at least be accurate. Right now you just look foolish to every poster. Either stop making things up or move these posts to banter. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Your posts are usually bad. But this is not even accurate, at all. We had a big torch after the 96 blizzard and had a record setting winter. 
 

we all get that you want to piss in everyone’s corn flakes, but at least be accurate. Right now you just look foolish to every poster. Either stop making things up or move these posts to banter. 

I think more a general rule that applies is if January is way above normal there are almost no cases of the winter being snowy.  That is really the only rule I think that applies.  I just do not know though how many below normal Decembers with above normal snow saw torch Januarys though.  Off memory I don't recall any, maybe 2005-06? 1989 obviously was crazy cold but had no snow albeit we had 1 very close call where like POU/BDL/BDR saw 5-10 inches so these things are somewhat relative as close calls either way could have resulted in years fitting/not fitting into analogs.

[NorthShoreWx]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Your posts are usually bad. But this is not even accurate, at all. We had a big torch after the 96 blizzard and had a record setting winter. 
 

we all get that you want to piss in everyone’s corn flakes, but at least be accurate. Right now you just look foolish to every poster. Either stop making things up or move these posts to banter. 

I assume he's 12 years old.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think more a general rule that applies is if January is way above normal there are almost no cases of the winter being snowy.  That is really the only rule I think that applies.  I just do not know though how many below normal Decembers with above normal snow saw torch Januarys though.  Off memory I don't recall any, maybe 2005-06? 1989 obviously was crazy cold but had no snow albeit we had 1 very close call where like POU/BDL/BDR saw 5-10 inches so these things are somewhat relative as close calls either way could have resulted in years fitting/not fitting into analogs.

Yeah jan 06 was definitely a torch 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah jan 06 was definitely a torch 

That said I think only NYC/LGA had above normal snow and that was by like a half inch maybe, JFK was shutout or close to it.  This Dec was overall a snowier pattern, it would be quite the surprise if January ended up even like +3

[wthrmn654]

To go off track for a second, 

With modern day technology and ways to track people,  doesn't this forum have the ability to know if someone is making a new account if they were blocked, banned, etc? Through IP, or emails? I only ask as it  would seem there's been mention of people acting like other people, assuming they been banned or restricted etc. 

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

lol - if I had a dollar for every time they’ve been wrong with their pattern analysis 

I like their analysis but they have been more wrong than right.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Your posts are usually bad. But this is not even accurate, at all. We had a big torch after the 96 blizzard and had a record setting winter. 
 

we all get that you want to piss in everyone’s corn flakes, but at least be accurate. Right now you just look foolish to every poster. Either stop making things up or move these posts to banter. 

He is also posting nonsense in the main enso thread.

[wthrmn654]

What are the odds the rest of winter will be snowy/ cold,  if December is below average temperatures but above normal snowfall?  From past memory I feel like the stats were 50/50? Could go both ways? 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I like their analysis but they have been more wrong than right.

Oh I agree - I just don’t think it’s wise to take any source or model run verbatim and then pass along as “fact”. 

[JustinRP37]

Can a certain someone at least admit they were dead wrong about December? Unbelievable how most of the area has had more snow cover days than the previous few winters, and we just finished December. We aren’t going to be mowing in February. Which reminds me, I have to drain the fuel out of my mower. 

[Rmine1]

I know I add almost no value in this blog, but IMO this winter to date has greatly outperformed recent winters. Consistent cold, with at least some wintery weather. Even the most minor events, the snow has no issue sticking, and stays for more than a matter of hours. Even if winter were to end tomorrow, I’d take the win. 

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

To go off track for a second, 

With modern day technology and ways to track people,  doesn't this forum have the ability to know if someone is making a new account if they were blocked, banned, etc? Through IP, or emails? I only ask as it  would seem there's been mention of people acting like other people, assuming they been banned or restricted etc. 

Yes I'm sure the admins do

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Can a certain someone at least admit they were dead wrong about December? Unbelievable how most of the area has had more snow cover days than the previous few winters, and we just finished December. We aren’t going to be mowing in February. Which reminds me, I have to drain the fuel out of my mower. 

i would not bet against more snow this winter, meaningful snow at that....

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Can a certain someone at least admit they were dead wrong about December? Unbelievable how most of the area has had more snow cover days than the previous few winters, and we just finished December. We aren’t going to be mowing in February. Which reminds me, I have to drain the fuel out of my mower. 

He did

[NEG NAO]

The 12Z Euro Op ends the January Thaw on the 11th - and a few days later there is a coastal low coming up the coast that originated in the Gulf -ALSO NOTICE THAT STRONG HP STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES - SOLID POS PNA PATTERN

[psv88]

Dusting of snow today. It’s snowed 7-8 times already this year

[Roger Smith]

 

<<< == JANUARY DAILY RECORDS for NYC == >>>

 

... temps in brackets after low min are that day's max when not also a record low max ...

** 2d snowfall was all on previous day ... note that Jan 1 record snowfall was on first day of data records Jan 1 1869

so no indication of 2d total there ... otherwise * all of record 2d snowfall was on that date and none on previous date

 

DATE ___ TEMPERATURES ___________________________________________ PRECIP ________________________________ notes

_________ High max ___ high min _____ Low max ___ Low min ________ Max prec ___ Max snow ___ Max 2d snow _ 

Jan 01 __ 62 1966 ____ 52 1966 _______ 10 1918 ______ -4 1918 ________ 2.05 1888R ___ 9.0 1869 ____ 9.0 1869* (no data prev day)

Jan 02 __ 68 1876 __ 49 1890,1911,2023 __10 1918 ___ 2 1918 _________ 1.92 1925RS__11.5 1925 ___13.0 1877 (4.8"+8.2")

Jan 03 __ 64 2000 ____ 51 2000 ________ 7 1879 ____ -4 1879 _________ 2.42 1999R ___ 7.0 1923 ____ 8.2 1877** _ 1923 added 2.0 4th

Jan 04 __ 66 1950,2023 __ 59 1950 ___ 14 1904,81__-3 1918 _________ 2.73 1982R___ 9.8 2018 ____ 9.8 2018*

Jan 05 __ 64 1950,93 _ 53 2007 _______ 13 1884 ____ -4 1904 (14)_____ 1.50 1909R___ 6.5 1881 ____ 9.8 2018** _ 1881 no added snow 4,6

Jan 06 __ 72 2007 ____ 54 2007 _______ 12 1896 ____ -2 1896 _________ 1.57 1962R___ 5.0 1989^____ 6.5 1881** _ 1989 no added snow 5,7

Jan 07 __ 64 2007 ____ 54 1946 _______ 17 1878 _____ 4 2014 (19) ____ 3.12 1874R___13.6 1996 ____13.6 1996*

Jan 08 __ 65 1998 ____ 53 2008 _______ 13 1968 _____ 2 1968 _________ 1.25 2007R___ 6.6 1996 ____ 20.2 1996 

Jan 09 __ 64 1937,2008_ 50 1937 _______ 14 1968,70__ -1 1968 _________1.73 2024R___ 5.0 1886 _____ 6.9 1996

Jan 10 __ 60 1876 ____ 47 1935 _______ 13 1875 _____-3 1875 _________ 1.80 2016R___ 6.3 1965 ____ 6.3 1965*

Jan 11 __ 69 2020 ____ 51 2020 _______ 12 1873 ______3 1968 _________ 1.46 1900R___ 5.7 1991 ____ 7.4 1954 (2.4+5.4) 1991 no added snow

Jan 12 __ 68 2020^____47 2017 ________ 8 1886 _____ 2 1886,1968,81 _ 2.35^1915R___6.1 2011 _____ 9.1 2011

Jan 13 __ 68 1932 ____ 56 1932 ________ 8^1912_____-3 1912, 14 ______ 2.35^1915R__11.5 1964 ____ 12.5 1964 

Jan 14 __ 70 1932^____55 1932 ___ 17 1893,1988,2004 _-5 1914 ________ 2.06 1940R___ 9.5 1910 ____ 11.5 1964** 

Jan 15 __ 67 1932 ____ 54 1995 _______ 12 1957 _____ 0 1957 _________ 1.26^1890R___6.0 1892 ____ 10.0 1910

Jan 16 __ 58 1995 ____ 53 1995 _______ 14 1920 _____ 1 1893_2004 ___ 1.44 1924R__ 13,0 1879 ____13.0 1879*

Jan 17 __ 63 1990 ____ 46 1990 _______ 12 1977 _____-2 1977 _________ 1.36 1994RS___6.0 1907 ____13.0 1879**

Jan 18 __ 66 1973,90 _ 47 1915 _______ 13 1977 _____ 0 1982 (15) _____ 2.10 2015R___ 5.0 1875 _____ 6.0 1907**

Jan 19 __ 64 1951 ____ 45 1986 _______ 10 1994 _____-2 1994 __________2.39 1936RS__ 9.0 1936 ___ 9.2 1936 

Jan 20 __ 64 1951,2006 _46 1900 _______ 15 1994 _____ 0 1994 _________1.41 1995R __11,1 1978 ______ 13.6 1978

Jan 21 __ 63 2006 ____ 49 1906 ________ 9 1985 _____ -2 1985 _________3.45 1979R___11.0 2014 ____11.1 1978**

Jan 22 __ 61 1916,59 __ 47 1906 ________14 1888^_____ 0 1888^_________ 1.26 1891R____ 8.5 2005 ____11.5 2014

Jan 23 __ 63 1874^____50 1906 _______ 11 1871 _____ -3 1936 __________2.55 1998R___27.3 2016^____ 27.5 2016 (13.8 2005)

Jan 24 __ 68 1967 ____ 54 1967 ________ 6 1882 _____ -6 1882 _______ 2.18 1979RS __ 7.4 1875,1908_ 27.3 2016**

Jan 25 __ 60 1967 ____ 49 2010 ________ 12 1897 ______2 1945 (15) ___ 1.80 1978R ___10.0 1905 ___ 11.0 1905

Jan 26 __ 72 1950^___ 49 1916 ________ 14 1871 ______2 1871 __________ 2.19 1986R ___12.3 2011 ___13.3 2011

Jan 27 __ 69 1916 ____ 53 1916 ________ 14 1888 _____ -1 1927 _________ 1.94 1976R ___ 9.0 1871 ___ 19.0 2011

Jan 28 __ 66 1916 ____ 46 2002,18 _____10 1888 _____ -2 1925 (14) ____ 1.87 1994R ___ 7.5 1897^ ___12.0 1871 (10.3 2004 6.0+4.3)

Jan 29 __ 69 2002 ____ 50 2002 ______ 13 1977 ______0 1873 _________ 1.03 1990R ___ 7.3 2022 ___ 8.5 2022 repl 7.5 1897** (6.5 1922)

Jan 30 __ 64 2006 ____ 44 1989 ______ 16 1934 _____ -1 1873 (20) ____ 1.19 1939R ___ 5.8 1966 ___ 7.3 2022** repl 6,8 1966

Jan 31 __ 63 1916,47 __ 43 1913 ________ 16 1935,2019 _ -1 1920 _______ 1.51 1914R ___ 8.0 1882 ___ 8.0 1882*

- - - - - - - - - - -

notable near record values (^)

6th _ 6.0" total snow 5-6 Jan 1893, may be reported as one-day record on 6th in some data sets. Not the 2d max (1881 5th 6.5)

9th _ 2024 rainfall record broke 1.42" R 1936. Total rainfall 1.95" incl 0.22" first few hours of 10th (2024). 57F peak temp.

12th _ 1915 rainfall followed by 1.06" precip on 13th, of which 0.7" snow (so mostly more rain).

12th _ 66 max in 2017 .... 14th _ 66 max in 2005. 

13th _ 9F max 1914

22nd _ Probably around -2 F max and -15 F min in 1857 (before NYC records began) ... severe cold lasted 2-3 days

23rd _ 62 max 1906 ... 2.31" prec from the record 27.3" snowfall. 1998 had 2.55" rain.

28th _ 7.1" snow 1943, 8.4" 27-28

[ForestHillWx]

Flurries now..

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Dusting of snow today. It’s snowed 7-8 times already this year

Feels like one of those rare winters were it just wants to snow when it can.  No complaints from me about it, especially after the last 2 winters we had.

[WestBabylonWeather]

5 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Most of our thaws put us in the 50s. The January thaws in 2020 and 2023 were insane. 65-70 for most of us. Was a telltale sign that winter was finished. 2024 was a bit more muted, and January 2021 and January 2022 were low 50s for the thaw, nothing too crazy, and we went back to wintry conditions after that. I'm certain we'll crack 50 next week, but anything above mid to upper 50s and that's usually a bad sign. 

Hi. You’re wrong 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Did any of the local airports or Central Park report any measurable snow from last night?

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Did any of the local airports or Central Park report any measurable snow from last night?

We won't know until the data is posted this evening. There were no local storm reports.

[EasternLI]

The replacement for the GGEM looking pretty wild by the 12th. Straightens that Pacific right out with the block not yet completely out of the picture either. This model is a physics and AI hybrid which I think might be a pretty good concept. Then you have the EPS AI Ensemble which is not really disagreeing with that same idea either. That's a little interesting, although now that I'm pointing it out I'm sure both drastically change next run  

[Stormlover74]

Snow shower in bridgewater

[cleetussnow]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Snow shower in bridgewater

Stay safe

[steve392]

More flurries in Bergen County right now.  Really enjoying this winter with the cold and flakes.