26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Expanded everything further NE

[weatherwiz]

Humpy dumpy came in like a wall 

[mob1]

[MJO812]

Just now, mob1 said:

Yea no other model has the low that north. Throw it out.

[Cyclone-68]

[WxWatcher007]

Going to go aggressive with this one. Essentially 5-10 for western CT, 4-8 for central CT out to Tolland, and 2-5 in eastern CT. 

[ORH_wxman]

SREFS look like they went north a bit too. We’ll see what the 18z globals do but this trend doesn’t feel like it’s stabilized yet. 

[weatherwiz]

I am so torn on this. Dry air races in aloft. 

Here is simulated reflectivity for 3z. I choose this over QPF because that's 3hr QPF up until that hour. anyways...looks pretty good

but look at 500mb RH (80-85% but dropping quickly)

This heavy snow is going to be so brief and I have to suspect this will have some impact on ratios, except for directly under the banding. 

You could see something like Danbury get 7" and Waterbury barely 3" (just using those two locations to illustrate the tight gradient)

 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SREFS look like they went north a bit too. We’ll see what the 18z globals do but this trend doesn’t feel like it’s stabilized yet. 

do you know how well historically the RGEM handles banding? 

[weathafella]

NAM went way north.  

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

NAM went way north.  

3k is further south. Weird how both nams are different. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

3k is further south. Weird how both nams are different. 

3km and RRFS are much further south like the other models, NAM is drunk

[MJO812]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

3km and RRFS are much further south like the other models, NAM is drunk

Rrfs gives nyc 6-10 inches.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

3km and RRFS are much further south like the other models, NAM is drunk

We’ll find out soon.  It’s the first usable 18z given the fact that HRRR beyond 12 hours is not useful usually.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, weathafella said:

We’ll find out soon.  It’s the first usable 18z given the fact that HRRR beyond 12 hours is not useful usually.

Yes only thing is HRRR looks spot on with other globals NAM doesn’t 

[weatherwiz]

If you look at where models (NAM, GFS, Euro) have the 700mb warm front...the NAM actually I think makes sense with how far north and east it has the banding. I think the area of strongest frontogenesis on the 12z RGEM would be northeast of where it has it

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rrfs gives nyc 6-10 inches.

Then definitely go with that.

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

3km and RRFS are much further south like the other models, NAM is drunk

I think someone tweeked it to make it even worse than it was before so there is no question when they decide to replace with the newer version.....

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

BOX only has 2-3” west of the river currently; let’s see if that changes

Who cares 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If you look at where models (NAM, GFS, Euro) have the 700mb warm front...the NAM actually I think makes sense with how far north and east it has the banding. I think the area of strongest frontogenesis on the 12z RGEM would be northeast of where it has it

Someone else alluded to this last night. Probably going to be good snow or good band NE of where it’s modeled now 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yea no other model has the low that north. Throw it out.

I’d advise don’t 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Surprised nothing from scooter, most models give him a couple now. Would be good for holiday cheer 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Pretty big jump in the 3km NAM. 12km NAM may not be too drunk. As said SREFs were further NE as well. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I think the real guidance ticks back SW at 18z 

[DavisStraight]

I'm happy for you guys that have been getting skunked finally have a decent one coming but could you push it just a tad NE so I can grab a couple inches?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Someone else alluded to this last night. Probably going to be good snow or good band NE of where it’s modeled now 

It's very possible. If there is any setup that the NAM is going to outperform other guidance it is going to be this. The globals aren't particularly skillful when it comes to banding. In terms of other mesos, I don't even think the HRRR handles that well. 

The best thing I think to do is forget QPF amounts and QPF trends and using those to define the storm trends. The focus and assessment should be on the mid-levels and particularly that mid-level warm front. Often, models will produce the heaviest QPF right under directly under where the best dynamics or fronto or gradient is but more time than not the heaviest QPF is going to be displaced a bit north of this. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I’m not sold on any trend back S and W. There has been a trend for a relaxing thin the confluence to the NE and also seeing some consolidation of the s/w energy. That 18z NAM is a thumper dumper.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’m not sold on any trend back S and W. There has been a trend for a relaxing thin the confluence to the NE and also seeing some consolidation of the s/w energy. That 18z NAM is a thumper dumper.

All the lean on ensembles has been SW, I think it’s reached its NE limit 

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares 

What's Drag say?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

All the lean on ensembles has been SW, I think it’s reached its NE limit 

Track yes, but I think we will see a broader expansion of snow on the NE side of the storm.