Boxing Day Ice Ice Baby!

[Weather Will]

34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70 

Let’s  face it.  NOAA is No Different than any other  government organization-seeking to preserve  itself with actual outcome of services  secondary at best 
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time ..  One prominent poster  here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models .  We all should and apply whatever pressures you can 

 

 

Gov' t employees work their ass off with limited resources and barebones staffing. As a recently retired federal employee myself, if you want better models write your Congressional Members and tell them that NOAA needs more resources to develop better models. Don't disparage feds in this forum or you should be banned.

[Roger Smith]

I think your outcome is mainly sleet and freezing rain bands with snow northeast of Baltimore possibly, but there is probably a one in ten chance this becomes your snowstorm at the last moment, the low is definitely going to have considerable energy from the high dew points it will encounter over the mid-section of the country, while right now it is just dealing with dry air masses over the Rockies (freezing fog in Miles City MT is about all it is producing so far). When it gets into Iowa and Illinois it will have a lot more moisture available and bands of sleet and freezing rain will develop around s WI and MI, then snow will develop over s ON and nw PA, w NY. 

If this turns hard right over w PA you could get a semi-surprise snowfall into DC and most of MD. Looking at all guidance the solutions are further apart than usual at 36h-48h lead time. But if I had to choose I think the GFS is probably nearest to reality at this point and its snow axis is ne PA to n/c NJ. 

Thundersleet around mid-day Friday is possible for s PA into ne MD. 

[rollenwiese]

36 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70 

Let’s  face it.  NOAA is No Different than any other  government organization-seeking to preserve  itself with actual outcome of services  secondary at best 
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time ..  One prominent poster  here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models .  We all should and apply whatever pressures you can 

 

 

You're a provocateur and this is banter, but come on man....

[WEATHER53]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Gov' t employees work their ass off with limited resources and barebones staffing. As a recently retired federal employee myself, if you want better models write your Congressional Members and tell them that NOAA needs more resources to develop better models. Don't disparage feds in this forum or you should be banned.

The individual Mets do what they are instructed to and it’s not them causing the problems. The institution of NOAA has created model systems with 300 different panels over a 2 day period 

it’s a self preserving methodology where they can’t be incorrect   The noble government worker thing is debatable. Been through it before here with the defend the  dealer sort of thing 

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, rollenwiese said:

You're a provocateur and this is banter, but come on man....

What screen name do you usually use ?

[CAPE]

lol Tenman

[snowfan]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70 

Let’s  face it.  NOAA is No Different than any other  government organization-seeking to preserve  itself with actual outcome of services  secondary at best 
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time ..  One prominent poster  here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models .  We all should and apply whatever pressures you can 

 

 

Day drinking.

[Ruin]

Models suck and meteorologists model hug

[WxUSAF]

Always a good sign when an event thread devolves into discussion about model usage philosophy 

[Eskimo Joe]

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Always a good sign when an event thread devolves into discussion about model usage philosophy 

Late blooming Festivus thread.

[H2O]

My fave model for Xmas is the EDBM

Eat Drink Be Merry

Would be nice to have that more than agenda driven posts 

Merry Xmas Eve yall

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO

[IronTy]

I'm getting a bit nervous as I didn't bring the battery for my chainsaw on this trip.  I could foresee having to cut my way out.  

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Always a good sign when an event thread devolves into discussion about model usage philosophy 

So you think we are getting rocked. 

[RDM]

24 minutes ago, H2O said:

My fave model for Xmas is the EDBM

Eat Drink Be Merry

Would be nice to have that more than agenda driven posts 

Merry Xmas Eve yall

Well said H2O - couldn't agree more.  Merry Christmas to you and yours too.  

[bncho]

nothing more like the Mid-Atlantic forum than arguing about the government and their shitty weather models in a boxing day ice to rain thread on christmas eve lol

[Eskimo Joe]

18z Euro implies winter storm warning level of zr for Mason-Dixon counties.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70 

Let’s  face it.  NOAA is No Different than any other  government organization-seeking to preserve  itself with actual outcome of services  secondary at best 
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time ..  One prominent poster  here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models .  We all should and apply whatever pressures you can 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

The individual Mets do what they are instructed to and it’s not them causing the problems. The institution of NOAA has created model systems with 300 different panels over a 2 day period 

it’s a self preserving methodology where they can’t be incorrect   The noble government worker thing is debatable. Been through it before here with the defend the  dealer sort of thing 

 

These are obnoxiously ignorant and offensive posts, which show little to no understanding about the workings of NOAA, NWS, numerical models, or even science in general.  They're doubly odious after what all Federal employees, including those within NOAA, have had to deal with in this past year.  You should be ashamed of yourself, if you are capable of that, for posting this utter drivel, especially at this time of year.

[WEATHER53]

Friday discussion 

High pressure 1030 moves from currently well nw of North Dakota to along NY State/VT border Friday morning.  A low ends up almost stalled along TN/KY/WV/VA intersections  throwing precip our way.  Don’t think high will be east of Maine at that time .

i won’t be changing this idea a half dozen times and let’s see how close it is come 12 noon Friday 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z HRRR....a lot like the RRFS..

[Weather Will]

Look at the WB 0Z HRRR radar at hour 48.  Not much snow in the northern zone... wondering if the heavy precipitation is trending more toward us, ripping off the northern MA of a snowstorm and bringing an ice storm to us..

[Scuddz]

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70 

Let’s  face it.  NOAA is No Different than any other  government organization-seeking to preserve  itself with actual outcome of services  secondary at best 
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time ..  One prominent poster  here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models .  We all should and apply whatever pressures you can 

 

 

Well, well, well. Merry Christmas.  I don't post here much anymore, but to see this drivel as the first post I read today after the year I've went through, Sir, You can unequivocally go fuck yourself.

[nianticct]

And Merry Christmas!!

[nj2va]

Nothing says joy to the world with the birth of Christ like fighting on a weather board. 

[Weather Will]

NAMs are a nothing burger for us and most currently in the WSW area. (WB 0Z 3K NAM).

[Interstate]

Merry Christmas all 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, H2O said:

My fave model for Xmas is the EDBM

Eat Drink Be Merry

Would be nice to have that more than agenda driven posts 

Merry Xmas Eve yall

EDBM to you also

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR....a lot like the RRFS..

Half inch of sleet first can keep it granular instead of slick ice disaster 

[aldie 22]