Boxing Day Ice Ice Baby!

[Weather Will]

34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70 

Let’s  face it.  NOAA is No Different than any other  government organization-seeking to preserve  itself with actual outcome of services  secondary at best 
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time ..  One prominent poster  here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models .  We all should and apply whatever pressures you can 

 

 

Gov' t employees work their ass off with limited resources and barebones staffing. As a recently retired federal employee myself, if you want better models write your Congressional Members and tell them that NOAA needs more resources to develop better models. Don't disparage feds in this forum or you should be banned.

[Roger Smith]

I think your outcome is mainly sleet and freezing rain bands with snow northeast of Baltimore possibly, but there is probably a one in ten chance this becomes your snowstorm at the last moment, the low is definitely going to have considerable energy from the high dew points it will encounter over the mid-section of the country, while right now it is just dealing with dry air masses over the Rockies (freezing fog in Miles City MT is about all it is producing so far). When it gets into Iowa and Illinois it will have a lot more moisture available and bands of sleet and freezing rain will develop around s WI and MI, then snow will develop over s ON and nw PA, w NY. 

If this turns hard right over w PA you could get a semi-surprise snowfall into DC and most of MD. Looking at all guidance the solutions are further apart than usual at 36h-48h lead time. But if I had to choose I think the GFS is probably nearest to reality at this point and its snow axis is ne PA to n/c NJ. 

Thundersleet around mid-day Friday is possible for s PA into ne MD. 

[rollenwiese]

36 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70 

Let’s  face it.  NOAA is No Different than any other  government organization-seeking to preserve  itself with actual outcome of services  secondary at best 
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time ..  One prominent poster  here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models .  We all should and apply whatever pressures you can 

 

 

You're a provocateur and this is banter, but come on man....

[WEATHER53]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Gov' t employees work their ass off with limited resources and barebones staffing. As a recently retired federal employee myself, if you want better models write your Congressional Members and tell them that NOAA needs more resources to develop better models. Don't disparage feds in this forum or you should be banned.

The individual Mets do what they are instructed to and it’s not them causing the problems. The institution of NOAA has created model systems with 300 different panels over a 2 day period 

it’s a self preserving methodology where they can’t be incorrect   The noble government worker thing is debatable. Been through it before here with the defend the  dealer sort of thing 

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, rollenwiese said:

You're a provocateur and this is banter, but come on man....

What screen name do you usually use ?

[CAPE]

lol Tenman

[snowfan]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70 

Let’s  face it.  NOAA is No Different than any other  government organization-seeking to preserve  itself with actual outcome of services  secondary at best 
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time ..  One prominent poster  here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models .  We all should and apply whatever pressures you can 

 

 

Day drinking.

[Ruin]

Models suck and meteorologists model hug

[WxUSAF]

Always a good sign when an event thread devolves into discussion about model usage philosophy 

[Eskimo Joe]

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Always a good sign when an event thread devolves into discussion about model usage philosophy 

Late blooming Festivus thread.

[H2O]

My fave model for Xmas is the EDBM

Eat Drink Be Merry

Would be nice to have that more than agenda driven posts 

Merry Xmas Eve yall

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO

[IronTy]

I'm getting a bit nervous as I didn't bring the battery for my chainsaw on this trip.  I could foresee having to cut my way out.