Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[EastonSN+]

Hrrr cooled less sleet.

[MJO812]

Gfs

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

Congrats man. You and your peeps deserve this one. 

[RCNYILWX]

I'm tracking the progress of the snow since my family was able to take off on time out of ORD, scheduled for a 527pm landing at HPN. Should be a fun landing for them.

Anyway, interesting to follow the terminal dopplers over the past hour since the 0.5 deg scan on both OKX and DIX was too high to account for the very dry low levels.

The fact that 25-30 dBZ at 4.5-5kft AGL on the NWS dopplers wasn't quite enough to punch through for a time shows how potent that low level dry wedge was, which lines up with 25/1 ob at HPN at around 4pm/21z.

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[TriPol]

NAM might have had something. If NYC gets lower than say 3 inches, we might be able say the NAM was onto something and stuck to its guns. In the alternative, if NYC gets more than 6 inches, the NAM should be put out to pasture sooner rather than later.

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hrrr cooled less sleet.

It keeps showing sleet pushing northeast quickly and then retreating back down towards TTN but amounts aren't great for central nj due to less precip

[Stash]

21 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's a great looking radar for Albany. I would be pretty excited being up there right now (and they're not typically a snowy location). Should be heavy snow for several hours with great ratios. Major event incoming for them.

I dunno, I live in the suburbs, north and west of Albany, and we do ok. Our corridor (outside of the hills) averages between 60-70", with immediate ALB around 60. It's not Syracuse or Saranac Lake obviously, but it's roughly similar to places at this latitude and elevation such as Concord. We very rarely get shadowed, but can struggle on elevation in marginal events. I grew up in the CT hill towns, and my current location is pretty on par with them, if not slightly better. 

I'd still be a little careful with the NAM. It tends to be aggressive with its push right up to go time. Still think the best dynamics are in the northern part of this forum, like Catskills through the mid Hudson Valley, but we'll see. Like others here, I'm keeping an eye on how places further West do to guess what may happen downstream. Good luck down there though!

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm tracking the progress of the snow since my family was able to take off on time out of ORD, scheduled for a 527pm landing at HPN. Should be a fun landing for them.

Anyway, interesting to follow the terminal dopplers over the past hour since the 0.5 deg scan on both OKX and DIX was too high to account for the very dry low levels.

The fact that 25-30 dBZ at 4.5-5kft AGL on the NWS dopplers wasn't quite enough to punch through for a time shows how potent that low level dry wedge was, which lines up with 25/1 ob at HPN at around 4pm/21z.

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Moderate to Heavy Snow at HPN

[steve392]

Finally snowing. Everything covered good. 

[Prairie Dog]

[BoulderWX]

nothing in Morristown despite good radar returns. 

[MANDA]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

nothing in Morristown despite good radar returns. 

Same here at the moment.  VERY LIGHT snow started about 10 minutes ago.  More snow grains than anything.

[BlizzLuv]

Sleet has begun. 29F

[RU848789]

Light snow started here around 5 pm and fwiw, Lee Goldberg, Channel 7, earlier this afternoon, cut back on snowfall for most of NJ, moving his 4" line, which was from about Clinton to Brick, to about Belvidere to NB to Long Branch, with 2-4" of snow/sleet SW of that line and 4-8" NE of that line, so those areas are unchanged and his 2" line from about Philly to Tuckerton didn't change. Seems reasonable.  

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, RU848789 said:

Light snow started here around 5 pm and fwiw, Lee Goldberg, Channel 7, earlier this afternoon, cut back on snowfall for most of NJ, moving his 4" line, which was from about Clinton to Brick, to about Belvidere to NB to Long Branch, with 2-4" of snow/sleet SW of that line and 4-8" NE of that line, so those areas are unchanged and his 2" line from about Philly to Tuckerton didn't change. Seems reasonable.  

Wow 6-12 for west Chester and over to Long Island. DT lowered NYC to 3-6” and he’s usually bullish. 

[richm20]

Mod. snow in Port Washington. 25⁰

[donsutherland1]

First NAM bust incoming...

According to the 12/26 18z NAM (using four algorithms on Bufkit), 1.2"-1.5" of snow was expected at Binghamton before the transition to several hours of sleet. Binghamton has seen snowfall approaching 3.0" as of 5:05 pm with moderate continuing snow to fall.

[coastalplainsnowman]

SE Nassau not quite moderate yet.  Everything whitened.  Sticking everywhere of course.

Starting out today with a long walk on a bright 20 degree morning, staying below freezing all day as the high clouds started moving in, with flakes falling right on schedule.  What a nice day after Christmas.   Older I get, the more I try to enjoy these moments.

[Krs4Lfe]

Snow came down pretty moderately before. Now nothing is falling. Must have been an initial band. Hope warm air doesn’t race in too fast 

[Stormlover74]

Snow mixing in

[East of the Parkway]

Sleeting in western Asbury 

[wthrmn654]

Dew point is about 12

[allgame830]

23/15 

[RU848789]

Has been fairly light snow/sleet since about 5:10 pm - we have a dusting! 27/14F, so clearly nowhere near saturation yet.

[mikeysed]

Snow is starting to pick up in North Caldwell NJ. Reports of sleet in central Morris County but snow here is strange. 

[eduggs]

Monster dry slot in WNY. It looks even more prominent than the NAM/HRRR were depicting at 18z. That will probably clip us later tonight and hopefully fill in somewhat.

[NJwx85]

Already about a half inch down here in Rockland County. Temp is 22.

[steve392]

Intense sleet right now in little ferry. 

[wthrmn654]

Snowing here steady just started 

[IrishRob17]

This discussion got buried quick in the other OBS thread so I figured I’d post it here too

Mesoscale Discussion 2276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Areas affected...Upstate NY to eastern Long Island...including parts of southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 262341Z - 270545Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow bands will spread/develop southeast across upstate NY toward southern New England over the next few hours. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing southeast across western NY/PA early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel vort max southwest of Syracuse, and this is reflected well in radar data. Multiple heavy snow bands have developed ahead of this vort max, strongly influenced by low-level warm advection, extending across upstate NY into the lower Hudson Valley. Boundary layer moistening supports this with dew points now rising into the mid teens (F) where snow rates are increasing. Over the next few hours snow rates are expected to increase downstream across western CT and Long Island, largely in response to this well-defined short wave digging toward the northern Middle Atlantic. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr can be expected prior to the short wave passage.

..Darrow.. 12/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...