Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

6-9" in NYC according to NWS. But considering NWS was forecasting 1" for Tuesday morning white rain, I think that's a bit too bullish

I'd still go 3-6 for the city and 6-9 for all northern suburbs and north shore LI personally but it's a tricky forecast, upton seems to be discounting the Euro/NAM. 

[nianticct]

Winter storm warning now se ct! 5 to 8

[snywx]

27 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I realize that but I still don't see 10" for this sub forum.  We'll know for sure in about 18 hours.

I think there will be a widespread 8-12” in the I-84 corridor w/ Danbury prob having the highest probability. 

[MJO812]

Latest HRRR

[weatherpruf]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If you were expecting a big snowstorm south of NYC from this particularly near Trenton and south I’m not sure what to say. There was very little to support that from what I’ve seen the last 48 hours. These storm types-SWFE or overrunning type storms correct north so many times at the end. That being said from here I’m following the short range models like the HRRR and radar trends. 

this isn't really a big snowstorm for anyone though, really....maybe someone gets 10 somewhere, but this is a very normal snow for this area all things considered; trenton area often does ok; i'd say i wouldn't be surprised at all if mercer areas get 4-5 with some sleet. of course the usual areas north and east will jackpot, but that is not the same as seeing nothing. just my opinions not based on anything but decades of observation; in fact, many times people would be commuting from trenton to nyc and people there would not believe them when they said they were delayed by snow...people used to laugh at them. this was back in the day of course......

[kat5hurricane]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Updated Warning from Upton

6-9 inches for NYC

That seems a little high but Upton usually plays catch up at the last minute or even during the storm. I think 3-6" is a good call

[eduggs]

Think BOS beats NYC for snowfall?

[nycwinter]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

this isn't really a big snowstorm for anyone though, really....maybe someone gets 10 somewhere, but this is a very normal snow for this area all things considered; trenton area often does ok; i'd say i wouldn't be surprised at all if mercer areas get 4-5 with some sleet. of course the usual areas north and east will jackpot, but that is not the same as seeing nothing. just my opinions not based on anything but decades of observation; in fact, many times people would be commuting from trenton to nyc and people there would not believe them when they said they were delayed by snow...people used to laugh at them. this was back in the day of course......

not normal for a clipper diving this way to give us possibly 6 inches in nyc

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

Think BOS beats NYC for snowfall?

No

[BoulderWX]

My Holly stays the course..was thinking they’d go 3-6 in their latest pacemaker

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 NJZ001-008-270900- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-251227T1500Z/ Sussex-Morris- Including the cities of Morristown and Newton 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 8 inches. Local amounts up to 10 inches possible. * WHERE...Morris and Sussex Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Saturday.

[RU848789]

SIAP, but Mt. Holly updated their warnings for Somerset, Middlesex and Monmouth to 4-7" (they'd been saying 3-5" but noted 5-6" likely for northern sections of each county in their morning AFD and they still note the sharp south to north gradient due to sleet). And my hourly graphic snow went up from 5.7" to 6.1" which is exactly my prediction from yesterday, lol. The rest of the advisories and warnings were updated too, which includes Hunterdon/Mercer being upped from 2-4" of snow/sleet to 3-5" and the warnings for all of NENJ (Union to Bergen), NYC, SENY and most of LI were bumped up to 6-9".

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Including the cities of Somerville, New Brunswick, and Freehold 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

• WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be a sharp gradient from south to north across the counties. Highest snow amounts will be in the northern half of the county as sleet mixes in from the south. Rates of up to 1 inch an hour will cause travel impacts Friday night.

 

[eduggs]

That's a good surge of moisture into WPA and WNY. I expect some really heavy snow this afternoon into the Catskills and ENY. On radar it definitely looks like the brunt of it is setting up to our north. Should get a good burst though this evening.

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

My Holly stays the course..was thinking they’d go 3-6 in their latest pacemaker

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 NJZ001-008-270900- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-251227T1500Z/ Sussex-Morris- Including the cities of Morristown and Newton 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 8 inches. Local amounts up to 10 inches possible. * WHERE...Morris and Sussex Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Saturday.

Going to be fun to start now casting this in about 4 hours.  Really am interested to watch this unfold.

[winterwarlock]

Just now, RU848789 said:

SIAP, but Mt. Holly updated their warnings for Somerset, Middlesex and Monmouth to 4-7" (they'd been saying 3-5" but noted 5-6" likely for northern sections of each county in their morning AFD and they still note the sharp south to north gradient due to sleet). And my hourly graphic snow went up from 5.7" to 6.1" which is exactly my prediction from yesterday, lol. The rest of the advisories and warnings were updated too, which includes Hunterdon/Mercer being upped from 2-4" of snow/sleet to 3-5" and the warnings for all of NENJ (Union to Bergen), NYC, SENY and most of LI were bumped up to 6-9".

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Including the cities of Somerville, New Brunswick, and Freehold 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

• WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be a sharp gradient from south to north across the counties. Highest snow amounts will be in the northern half of the county as sleet mixes in from the south. Rates of up to 1 inch an hour will cause travel impacts Friday night.

 

Good luck..2-5 is a better call

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Think BOS beats NYC for snowfall?

Doubtful but I think if Boston gets 3”+ NYC gets less than 3. I don’t see this as a situation where both cities win. The snow really making it that far E means either/both a lot of warm mid level air or a dry slot under the warm advection heavy snow in NYC. 

NWS also quite aggressive out here, my point/click is 7-11” and expected amount up to 9”. I’m thinking the low end of that and any 9” would be out by Port Jeff to Riverhead maybe but we’ll have to see. Regardless 7” is still a very respectable event. Still thinking the city is a general 3-6”, 3 for Staten Island and Rockaways, 6 for the Bronx and NE Queens. 

[Northshorekid]

NWS has upped our (Selden, NY) totals tonight from 5-9 inches up to 6-10 inches.

[cleetussnow]

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I wouldn’t call 6 to 9 inches area wide conservative, it’s extremely aggressive

Of course you would.

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Latest HRRR

It hasn’t changed all day. Nearly identical 

[donsutherland1]

Coming back from the New York Botanical Garden and its lonely blooming camellia, and reading the many pages that have accumulated in this thread, it seems that chaos ruled.

Seemingly with every model in every cycle, the forecast has changed. Posts proclaimed a confidence-boosting snowfall. Others stripped it all away. Snowfall totals advanced, retreated, and advanced again. There were calls for confidence. There were calls for panic.

The furious activity over a few hours suggested that AmWx readers were frantically refreshing their phones the way sailors once scanned the horizon, hoping the weather would make up its mind (or at least those posting on the forthcoming storm would). Reading the alternating encouraging and dampening posts felt like whiplash. By the end of the thread, no one truly could know what to plan for. Reading the ups and downs and twists and turns was like sitting in a plane on final approach while the pilot yanked the controls left, then right, then left again, never really committing to the runway. 

In fact, in synoptic terms, things have been far less chaotic. Most of the reliable guidance has continued to be a model of fairly impressive consistency for the snow-starved New York City region. The New York City area, Hudson Valley, southwestern Connecticut, and parts of Long Island remain in line for a moderate-to-significant snowfall (4"-8"). 

The real battle zone where uncertainty and drama have reigned has been southwest of there from central New Jersey southward and northeast of there into Massachusetts. Will Philadelphia be left with only miserable sleet and freezing rain? Will some of the steady snow cross Storrow Drive into downtown Boston?

The latest HREF shows that things remain on track.

As is typically the case, if one reduces the categories of snowfall by one category e.g., 6"-8" is reduced to 4"-6", one gets a good picture of what is likely at this stage while taking into consideration the modest uncertainty that still exists. Even a two-category reduction would yield 4"-6" for most of New York City.

Meanwhile, snow is advancing through western New York State. New York City is poised to see its biggest snowfall since January 28-29, 2022 when 8.5" fell.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It hasn’t changed all day. Nearly identical 

Yep slightly more snow for the island.

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Good luck..2-5 is a better call

Yeah, 4-7" seems dicey as does my 6.1" call yesterday for my house, but can't backtrack now, lol.  I will say that the average snowfall in Edison averaged over 10 models (5 globals/5 mesos) has been in the 5-6" range for the last 2-3 model suites, so maybe it's not that crazy to predict 6.1".  And for me it's much more about precip than snow/sleet.  I'd much rather get 3" snow + 1" of sleet (4" as measured, but 6" worth of snow, by mass) than get 5" of pure snow.  

[jm1220]

Just now, RU848789 said:

Yeah, 4-7" seems dicey as does my 6.1" call yesterday for my house, but can't backtrack now, lol.  I will say that the average snowfall in Edison averaged over 10 models (5 globals/5 mesos) has been in the 5-6" range for the last 2-3 model suites, so maybe it's not that crazy to predict 6.1".  And for me it's much more about precip than snow/sleet.  I'd much rather get 3" snow + 1" of sleet (4" as measured, but 6" worth of snow, by mass) than get 5" of pure snow.  

For my sake here I’ll definitely be rooting for you lol. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep slightly more snow for the island.

The hrrr doesn't have it at 10:1 though. The snowfall output is less than the map you posted but did get better from its previous run

[NJwx85]

If I had to pick a jackpot zone, it would be a line from SWF to HPN to ISP. There could be a very sharp cutoff on both sides of that.

[RockawayRowdies]

Been here in this forum over a dozen years. 

As said previously in other storms, this will be "a nowcast situation"

[Yanksfan]

Just now, RockawayRowdies said:

Been here in this forum over a dozen years. 

As said previously in other storms, this will be "a nowcast situation"

Agreed. A good rule of thumb is once under 12 hrs of start time any model run should be taken with a grain of salt especially the globals. With most snowstorms it’s a fine line where the heaviest snow bands set up along with the subsidence areas that come with it. Real time obs is the way to go. 

[Winterweatherlover]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

If I had to pick a jackpot zone, it would be a line from SWF to HPN to ISP. There could be a very sharp cutoff on both sides of that.

Not sure it'll be that sharp in this setup. I think everyone forum wide at least from NYC north is seeing 3+. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Not sure it'll be that sharp in this setup. I think everyone forum wide at least from NYC north is seeing 3+. 

There’s often subsidence on either side of an intense band. The models show this. It doesn’t mean other areas can’t do well but the 8”+ zone is probably less than 50 miles wide.

[TJW014]

Going to be a fun ride home from West Milford tonight

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The hrrr doesn't have it at 10:1 though. The snowfall output is less than the map you posted but did get better from its previous run

18z