Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Jt17]

Pretty broad ranges but I think most places will fall into those ranges.

Not their forecast


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[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

enough with these 10:1 maps..... this is a MUCH colder storm and DGZ looks prime for ratios higher than the norm. 

Think the AVERAGE will be 10 to 11:1.  Will start higher and end perhaps a little lower than 10:1.

[SnowGoose69]

I think NYC finally gets 4, whether its 4.1 or 7.2 I don't know but I'd lean closer to the 4 for sure right now though.

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah overall it has a much lesser-intensity snow band than the other models which is why it's been showing consistently lower snow totals than the other models. Verbatim, this would be a big bust for those south of NYC

If you were expecting a big snowstorm south of NYC from this particularly near Trenton and south I’m not sure what to say. There was very little to support that from what I’ve seen the last 48 hours. These storm types-SWFE or overrunning type storms correct north so many times at the end. That being said from here I’m following the short range models like the HRRR and radar trends. 

[BoulderWX]

Might as well hold off on any more cave talk since we will have a clear answer in about 14 hours 

26/3 - Mostly Cloudy

[Neblizzard]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Might as well hold off on any more cave talk since we will have a clear answer in about 14 hours 

26/3 - Mostly Cloudy

Exactly .   People clinging to euro runs when it’s now cast time.

[MJO812]

Updated Warning from Upton

6-9 inches for NYC

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

2 to 7 is a large range for CPK.

Yep, this close in that’s ridiculous. You can’t call it 3-6”?

[psv88]

Euro looks great. Held serve. 

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

sad

 

Euro often too dry in these scenarios I think. 

[Northof78]

Yup, Upton bumped up totals (floor and ceiling for all) to 6" - 9" in latest discussion/warning

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Updated Warning from Upton

6-9 inches for NYC

Same here in rockland which is bizarre since I’m 30 ish miles nw.

[Jt17]

Yep, this close in that’s ridiculous. You can’t call it 3-6”?

Like I said. Not their forecast. That's an experimental thing you can look at. Their expected snowfall is 7 and puts NYC in the 6-8 band and Upton just updated their warning to 6-9 inches. They aren't buying the euro.


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[Winterweatherlover]

11 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I could be wrong but I disagree.  Don't see that much QPF to generate 10".

I can't guarantee 10 anywhere but they'll be a nice band somewhere and ratios should be very good with this one. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro often too dry in these scenarios I think. 

I feel its always too dry with the exception of deep lows.  Its not always a huge error but .25-.30 too low can be 4-5 inches if you have a 15:1 event.

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, Northof78 said:

Yup, Upton bumped up totals (floor and ceiling for all) to 6" - 9" in latest discussion/warning

I guess they are sticking to 6/9 for their entire coverage area.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

I guess they are sticking to 6/9 for their entire coverage area.

They got burned last week so makes sense they aren’t being conservative 

[psv88]

My point and click is for 7-11”. Probably thinking our ratios are high in that band. I could see 15:1 at the peak intensity 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

They got burned last week so makes sense they aren’t being conservative 

I wouldn’t call 6 to 9 inches area wide conservative, it’s extremely aggressive

[psv88]

Hourly forecast has me at exactly 9”. I’ll take it!

[psv88]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

I wouldn’t call 6 to 9 inches area wide conservative, it’s extremely aggressive

Re read my post. 

[EasternLI]

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 7 and
  10 inches.

* WHERE...Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday.

[mob1]

HRRR looks beautiful for the second straight run, hopefully we verify just a hair SW of what models depict. Won't take much. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 7 and
  10 inches.

* WHERE...Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday.

You are in the jackpot zone. Will be a fun one out there 

[HeadInTheClouds]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Updated Warning from Upton

6-9 inches for NYC

How could that be? The dry Euro at 10:1 has 4 inches for NYC. Blasphemy. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 7 and
  10 inches.

* WHERE...Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday.

Your area’s gonna do very well. Probably best of anyone on LI. 

[Krs4Lfe]

6-9" in NYC according to NWS. But considering NWS was forecasting 1" for Tuesday morning white rain, I think that's a bit too bullish

[snywx]

[Winterweatherlover]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think NYC finally gets 4, whether its 4.1 or 7.2 I don't know but I'd lean closer to the 4 for sure right now though.

When was the last time NYC had 4? hard to believe its been that long and wondering if they measuring right. I know its a bit different where I am at the top of the Bronx but have had at least 3 events in the last 3 years over 4 inches including one already this year. 

[EasternLI]

Just now, psv88 said:

You are in the jackpot zone. Will be a fun one out there 

I've been quietly liking my spot in this since yesterday. Anticipating these slight bumps NE. Longitude helps a bit here in this Frankenstein pattern situation. You'll probably do pretty well too I think.