Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

18z Reggie

reggie looks great id take that

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

18z Reggie

[MJO812]

Insane how this storm evolved

From mild weather with rain with the storm hitting Northern New England to a snowstorm with temps in the 20s.

[Snowlover11]

I’ll take a RGEM/GFS combo to go please.

[EastonSN+]

Bold for Philly area

[Roger Smith]

Reggie slid into the left guardrail and some of the other guidance is up against the right fence, but GFS sailing down the actual intended path, this model run reminds me of rush hour in Salt Lake City (stay behind a truck in the middle lane and you'll survive it perhaps) ... I believe so anyway. Low is now in n.e. WY and air mass cold enough to snow (with just freezing fog) is in Montana and North Dakota. It's sunny and mid-70s in e CO and most of KS, but foggy and low 50s in s IA into central IL, this is the moisture available to this storm basically, so it should begin to drop moderate amounts of sleet and freezing rain in WI and MI tonight into Christmas Day, transition to snow will start over ne OH, w NY and s ON Christmas night into early 26th. I can't see it missing south, too much development taking place before the transfer to a C Hat coastal low. Axis of heaviest snow seems likely to be ne PA into n/c NJ. Northeast winds off LI Sound should help with banding and accumulations. 

[mob1]

I don't love how close we are to the cutoff line on some models and future trends can easily doom us (or it can trend better) but that's pretty much a given with most storms here. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

I don't love how close we are to the cutoff line on some models and future trends can easily doom us (or it can trend better) but that's pretty much a given with most storms here. 

Yeah we're running out of wiggle room with 48 hours yet to go

[brooklynwx99]

really looking good for the metro’s first warning level snow in quite some time. we can see 1-2”/hr rates as FGEN pushes in during the evening, especially NW towards 287

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

I don't love how close we are to the cutoff line on some models and future trends can easily doom us (or it can trend better) but that's pretty much a given with most storms here. 

gotta be near the mixing line to get the best snow 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

I don't love how close we are to the cutoff line on some models and future trends can easily doom us (or it can trend better) but that's pretty much a given with most storms here. 

Are you really complaining?

[MJO812]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

gotta be near the mixing line to get the best snow 

Always the case

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Are you really complaining?

No, I'm loving it. Just pointing out that at this point rather small trends can have a huge impact. 

[snywx]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

really looking good for the metro’s first warning level snow in quite some time. we can see 1-2”/hr rates as FGEN pushes in during the evening, especially NW towards 287

Any signs of a IVT with this setup? GFS has been hinting at it for a quite a few runs now. 

[SnowGoose69]

We'll see over the next 12-24 but this may be the start of the 40 or so mile push NE I expected could happen, thats every 18z model minus the ICON more or less.

[TriPol]

I truly wonder if we can get a death band to set up shop over us and puke snow with 1-2"/hour rates. That could push us over 10".

[BoulderWX]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Bold for Philly area

Don’t love being in the “proverbial” bullseye but feel good for at least 4-5”+; Merry Christmas Eve all. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

lee goldberg has nyc in the 4-8 inch range..

Yep, I like Lee a lot; here's his updated map (from 3-6" to 4-8" for most).  Pretty consistent with the NWS...

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We'll see over the next 12-24 but this may be the start of the 40 or so mile push NE I expected could happen, thats every 18z model minus the ICON more or less.

Looking at NWS thoughts on Philly, would think even if there was a changeover 4 to 5 would fall.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at NWS thoughts on Philly, would think even if there was a changeover 4 to 5 would fall.

Up here I could see it, down there a 40 mile shift they'd be mainly sleet or freezing rain

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Up here I could see it, down there a 40 mile shift they'd be mainly sleet or freezing rain

Looking at the GEFS, although the precip shield expanded NE it was a touch colder with a better high position.

[wthrmn654]

If the gfs holds i think watches expand for even eastern of Long Island tomorrow.

[wthrmn654]

Upton snow maps shifted east with 5 pm updates 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Gotta hope those northwest ticks stop right about now.

And this morning we were worried about suppression.  Just enjoy tracking .

[NEG NAO]

[Wannabehippie]

8 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

lol 14 inches for Baltimore! Need to find what this model is smoking. 

If you find out, let me know, I want to try some of that fine bud.

[Wannabehippie]

7 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

My brother had a husky when he lived upstate in lake effect country. There was no keeping that dog inside when it was cold and whiteout snows.

Those dogs probably romped for a bit in that snow, then laid down for naps in it. Then the neighborhood Karen or Chad called the cops complaining about you mistreating your dogs.

[sussexcountyobs]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's unfortunate that this model will replace the NAM. As bad as the NAM can be, I can't argue that this model has any more skill.

It's not the model that has skill or lack of skill. It's the people who program the model. Junk in. Junk out.

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We'll see over the next 12-24 but this may be the start of the 40 or so mile push NE I expected could happen, thats every 18z model minus the ICON more or less.

Definitely has an impact imby just north if Princeton. Most in thus subforum are loving the shift north

[Rjay]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

god this place is weenie central

So glad you could add your thoughts