Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

6-8” incher on the gfs for just about everyone. Minus CT.

SW CT is in that range too FWIW.

[Nibor]

59 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Speaking of dog sleds my 12 year old psychotic boxer is gonna get the cops called on us. She refuses to come inside when its snowing. I have to chase her down and carry her in and she throws a fit like a toddler. 

I bet a few board members here act the same. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

SW CT is in that range too FWIW.

Gfs is basically 6-10. There will be high amounts towards 10 most likely inland.

[coastalplainsnowman]

Upton's high end / low end probability maps show quite a range - for example, New Brunswick gets 8" in the high end, but a trace in the low end.  Whenever I see this, in the few years that such maps have been published, my layman's takeaway is that there's big divergence among the models and/or a narrow jackpot zone, at least as of now.  Is that an accurate take?  Seems that way based on the maps that I've seen posted this morning.

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Speaking of dog sleds my 12 year old psychotic boxer is gonna get the cops called on us. She refuses to come inside when its snowing. I have to chase her down and carry her in and she throws a fit like a toddler. 

Dog's name isn't Jeb, is it? 

[Snowlover11]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

SW CT is in that range too FWIW.

Yes, I meant to say NE CT gets “screwed”

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Upton's high end / low end probability maps show quite a range - for example, New Brunswick gets 8" in the high end, but a trace in the low end.  Whenever I see this, in the few years that such maps have been published, my layman's takeaway is that there's big divergence among the models and/or a narrow jackpot zone, at least as of now.  Is that an accurate take?  Seems that way based on the maps that I've seen posted this morning.

But 6-7 is the predicted amount for NB so it seems like a much higher probability for the higher end 

[wthrmn654]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
1020 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-251530-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1020 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A winter system will approach the region Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning, with the potential for an accumulating, plowable
snow increasing.

[winterwarlock]

Did TWC name this yet?

[BoulderWX]

Give me any model but RRFS please

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Did TWC name this yet?

It's funny you mention that because they used to be really adherent to their naming criteria for mot years, but ever since last year, they let some storms slide without naming them lol. Usually, their criteria is 2 million people or more would have to be under a winter storm warning. But last two storms had well over that amount and they didn't do it, so maybe they changed their criteria?

[WeatherGeek2025]

CMC looks good! Similar to GFS 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Upstate? Could be.

We give you some leeway

Everything north of Spuyten Duyvil is upstate, right?

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Everything north of Spuyten Duyvil is upstate, right?

Starting at the Bronx and westchester border is upstate

 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

CMC looks good! Similar to GFS 

Way more mixing. Can't use the snow maps

[Snowlover11]

Time for Upton to toss out a WSW. Expect it by 3-4pm.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Starting at the Bronx and westchester border is upstate

 

I went to college in the Bronx and my uncle in Brooklyn used to ask me, "how are things upstate?".

[IrishRob17]

9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Everything north of Spuyten Duyvil is upstate, right?

Makes sense, everything south of there is the city.

[NorthShoreWx]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

Makes sense, everything south of there is the city.

Perversely, I think that definition makes me upstate.

[Stormlover74]

Ukie

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For some comparative statistics, New York City has been warming only slightly faster than New York State overall (0.9° per decade vs. 0.8° per decade) since 1980. That suggests that the overall share of the recent warming is due to broader changes in climate rather than the City's heat island effect.

In any case, the frequency of above freezing low temperatures and above 40° low temperatures during winter precipitation events has been increasing.  This applies to New York City and other nearby areas e.g., Newark.

This could result in an increased frequency where light precipitation events could wind up having more rain than snow relative to earlier in the climate period. However, any structural decline in seasonal snowfall from an overall warming of winters probably won't be evident until the mid-2030s due to stochastic variability. Moreover, there will continue to be some big snowstorms (even if the recent big snowfall drought skews perceptions) and snowy winters. Winters can still feature cold. December 2025 is an example, as it's on course to be the coldest December in 15 years in NYC.

Thanks Don. The last storm where CPK was at 37 while north, south, LI and CT stations had 34 at the onset of the precip shook me.

[winterwarlock]

18 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It's funny you mention that because they used to be really adherent to their naming criteria for mot years, but ever since last year, they let some storms slide without naming them lol. Usually, their criteria is 2 million people or more would have to be under a winter storm warning. But last two storms had well over that amount and they didn't do it, so maybe they changed their criteria?

The storm that dumped 6 inches they didnt name and definitely deserved one

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie

Rare Staten Island beating the Bronx setup may be occurring if this depiction comes to fruition.

[Northof78]

Man, this is the thinnest bonus stripe of snow I remember seeing in a long time, like 50 mile wide band of good snows

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Man, this is the thinnest bonus stripe of snow I remember seeing in a long time, like 50 mile wide band of good snows

You'll end up as always here with someone on the far NE edge getting smoked while what you thought would be a jackpot zone gets less than forecast and places SW of that zone doing as well as was expected.  You always sort of want to be 20-40 miles NW/N/NE of where at 24 hours out the biggest snows are likely because often times the zone expected to do best gets fronto/banding screwed by an area to their N.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You'll end up as always here with someone on the far NE edge getting smoked while what you thought would be a jackpot zone gets less than forecast and places SW of that zone doing as well as was expected.  You always sort of want to be 20-40 miles NW/N/NE of where at 24 hours out the biggest snows are likely because often times the zone expected to do best gets fronto/banding screwed by an area to their N.

even on regular storms with a SW to NE movement  orientation you see that on the NW fringe....

[EastonSN+]

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

even on regular storms with a SW to NE movement  orientation you see that on the NW fringe....

Yeah it’s why often times on coastals Long Island does well but so does Passaic and Orange.  That may be due to elevation at times as well but so frequently on benchmark track storms there is a secondary max up in that area 

[North and West]

Did TWC name this yet?

Weenie Wonderland


.

[North and West]

Starting at the Bronx and westchester border is upstate
 

Psssh. North of the 90s.


.