Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[North and West]

Why are you posting the Kuchera ratio map? There’s a reason why the National Weather Service never uses it

I thought you were saving this commentary for Christmas dinner


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[BxEngine]

I still have snow on the ground in my portion of the immediate metro. Weird. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Most normies I talk to whenever I talk snow seem to understand Manhattan is a different beast when it comes to snowfall. I think there’s plenty of value in measuring at Central Park within the urban environment. Just wish the people doing it had some sense of urgency when it comes to accuracy. 

True, however when comparing say the 1980s snowfall to today for CPK, we have to add a caveat that the HEI has a greater influence than before. For me personally, I was comparing 1970 through 1999 CPK yearly snowfall to the period commencing 2018/2019 to today. I feel I can no longer do so as any drop in average would be mainly due to the increasing HIE.

[ILoveWinter]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is showing this coming in as a wall of heavy snow scenario where the best spots for banding can pick up 3-6” of snow in 3-4 hours with excellent rates.

 

It's tough living in Manhattan when it comes to accumulating snow but one thing that can overcome that with BL temps is rates. Hoping something like this verifies.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Mike masco likes 4-6 for NYC but can see 6-10 if it remains all snow.

He likes 6-10 for interior NY

I think 6" is the ceiling with this event around here.  We're not getting 1" of liquid out of this and ratio's are not going to turn .5" liquid into 10" of snow.  And that assumes there is no mixing or taint.  Just don't see more than 6" from this as a top number.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I think 6" is the ceiling with this event around here.  We're not getting 1" of liquid out of this and ratio's are not going to turn .5" liquid into 10" of snow.  And that assumes there is no mixing or taint.  Just don't see more than 6" from this as a top number.

Ratios will be high if temps are in the 20s. Thats what he is going with. 

I like 3-6 for NYC but I can easily see more with the banding. Lets see where we are at tomorrow. 

[Snowlover11]

25 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I still have snow on the ground in my portion of the immediate metro. Weird. 

Same.

[Stormlover74]

Nam came like way south lol. Better than coming north at least

Basically no mixing north of Philly 

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Nam came like way south lol. Better than coming north at least

Basically no mixing north of Philly 

Yep temps stay in the 20s. Im posting kuchera because this map would verify if the nam is right. 10:1 has a few inches with a thin band also.

[jconsor]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is there a site we can see the NBM?

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/blend/blend_precip.php has it if you have a subscription.

[Stormlover74]

[eduggs]

The 6z RRFS nailed Baltimore with a minor event for Philly and nothing northeast of Trenton. It's presumably unreliable towards the end of its range. I've noticed it sometimes clusters with the NAM and WRF family.

[mob1]

That's pretty wild. Let's see what the rest of the 12Z guidance shows. 

[BoulderWX]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep temps stay in the 20s. Im posting kuchera because this map would verify if the nam is right. 10:1 has a few inches with a thin band also.

Still looks good but that’s a pretty thin swath of 3-6” or maybe it’s the unique orientation that’s throwing me off 

[donsutherland1]

For some comparative statistics, New York City has been warming only slightly faster than New York State overall (0.9° per decade vs. 0.8° per decade) since 1980. That suggests that the overall share of the recent warming is due to broader changes in climate rather than the City's heat island effect.

In any case, the frequency of above freezing low temperatures and above 40° low temperatures during winter precipitation events has been increasing.  This applies to New York City and other nearby areas e.g., Newark.

This could result in an increased frequency where light precipitation events could wind up having more rain than snow relative to earlier in the climate period. However, any structural decline in seasonal snowfall from an overall warming of winters probably won't be evident until the mid-2030s due to stochastic variability. Moreover, there will continue to be some big snowstorms (even if the recent big snowfall drought skews perceptions) and snowy winters. Winters can still feature cold. December 2025 is an example, as it's on course to be the coldest December in 15 years in NYC.

[eduggs]

So we have a couple of meso-models driving this south with snow all the way down into Delaware. Are they onto something? Since the GFS, ECM, CMC, and their ensembles are in pretty good agreement as of 0z/6z, I'm going to speculate that the mesos are at the ends of their range and their convection allowing and hi-res qualities are yielding an unlikely result... We'll see.

[Stormlover74]

3knam has a nice front end thump

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's see where the RGEM winds up. It uses a different initialization scheme than the NAM, RRFS, etc.

[eduggs]

6z RRFS for reference only

 

[Northof78]

I would be cautious N or E of NYC and N of NJ/NY border, extreme sharp cut-off on NE shield with the block

[NYStorm]

I'm flying into HPN around 3PM-4PM Friday afternoon. Am I correct in thinking that thus far, it is looking like a start time late afternoon (with moderate snow not starting till dinnertime or afterwards) and that ceilings shouldn't be too bad yet around my arrival time? Appreciate any help. Merry Christmas.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

6z RRFS for reference only

 

That would be nuts

[Nibor]

56 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I still have snow on the ground in my portion of the immediate metro. Weird. 

Pft, immediate metro? My geographical understanding is the arctic circle starts at the Tappan Zee bridge. If I have to take a dog sled to your location that’s not immediate. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NYStorm said:

I'm flying into HPN around 3PM-4PM Friday afternoon. Am I correct in thinking that thus far, it is looking like a start time late afternoon (with moderate snow not starting till dinnertime or afterwards) and that ceilings shouldn't be too bad yet around my arrival time? Appreciate any help. Merry Christmas.

I think it won't make it there until at least 6 or 7

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

6z RRFS for reference only

 

lol 14 inches for Baltimore! Need to find what this model is smoking. 

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Pft, immediate metro? My geographical understanding is the arctic circle starts at the Tappan Zee bridge. If I have to take a dog sled to your location that’s not immediate. 

Speaking of dog sleds my 12 year old psychotic boxer is gonna get the cops called on us. She refuses to come inside when its snowing. I have to chase her down and carry her in and she throws a fit like a toddler. 

[eduggs]

Counter to a few mesos being suppressed, the ECM-AI has ticked northeast with the precip. shield over the past 3 cycles. It's also interesting to note that it's on the opposite end of the envelope from the GFS-AI, which remains on the southern periphery. 

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

6z RRFS for reference only

 

This is why mets use a blend to create a forecast. There's always going to be outliers. 

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Speaking of dog sleds my 12 year old psychotic boxer is gonna get the cops called on us. She refuses to come inside when its snowing. I have to chase her down and carry her in and she throws a fit like a toddler. 

There's numerous videos of huskies doing that while crying bloody murder when being carried down road back home and everyone coming outside seeing who's dying! 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is why mets use a blend to create a forecast. There's always going to be outliers. 

I'm pretty sure the RRFS is much more accurate at 48 hr compared to 84 hr... similar to the HRRR at 48 hr.