White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[mahk_webstah]

Glad some should get a moderate event!  Lighter here but what a great time to have even just a couple inches.  Looks like Friday Saturday is getting interesting.  Wunderground is optimistic and WPC has an inch plus qpf thru Sunday all snow up here.  Hoping we can get the snow line further south into SNE.

[Kitz Craver]

Nice positive trends last night 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, TalcottWx said:

Gross. 

I'd hit it-

[UnitedWx]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd hit it-

Same here. Just a couple inches would be nice

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs is trying to clip eastern ma with the Norlun, similar to last storm

[weatherwiz]

Going to be a weird one tomorrow...probably going to see some surprises on both sides of the spectrum...overperforming somewhere locally and underperforming somewhere too. Should rip decently though for a time wherever that fronto band traverses 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be a weird one tomorrow...probably going to see some surprises on both sides of the spectrum...overperforming somewhere locally and underperforming somewhere too. Should rip decently though for a time wherever that fronto band traverses 

Cancel school for tomorrow, and it’s a win for me. Xmas break can start a day early. Thank you Santa. 

[FXWX]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Cancel school for tomorrow, and it’s a win for me. Xmas break can start a day early. Thank you Santa. 

With lots of half days already in place, you are probably right?

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Cancel school for tomorrow, and it’s a win for me. Xmas break can start a day early. Thank you Santa. 

I'd rather the snow days for legit events... but I understand your reasoning.  

[H2Otown_WX]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be a weird one tomorrow...probably going to see some surprises on both sides of the spectrum...overperforming somewhere locally and underperforming somewhere too. Should rip decently though for a time wherever that fronto band traverses 

Meh, how'd that fronto work out for you?

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

With lots of half days already in place, you are probably right?

I’d guess the whole state cancels .. maybe not SE coast ?

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d guess the whole state cancels .. maybe not SE coast ?

Not if the NAM is right for the daytime part of it

[Ginx snewx]

High definition RGEM gon wild

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Not if the NAM is right for the daytime part of it

3k totally different 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Not if the NAM is right for the daytime part of it

Yeah---it was hinting  on that in 06z IIRC.

Tomorrow night or bust.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

High definition RGEM gon wild

do you  have link to that?

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

do you  have link to that?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025122206&fh=48

 

I think...

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

do you  have link to that?

https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/hrdps/prateptype-imp/us_ne?run=2025122206&forecastHour=48

 

Also here... the Herpes model

[ORH_wxman]

Both 3k and 12k are pretty paltry for SNE tomorrow. Would be hard to go more than 1-2"....however, NAM has been on the more paltry side of guidance for several runs now, so TBD if it ends up trending juicier. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Both 3k and 12k are pretty paltry for SNE tomorrow. Would be hard to go more than 1-2"....however, NAM has been on the more paltry side of guidance for several runs now, so TBD if it ends up trending juicier. 

If you want something more optimistic.

6z HRDPS would probably be best case outcome. 3-5 for almost all of SNe

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If you want something more optimistic.

6z HRDPS would probably be best case outcome. 3-5 for almost all of SNe

Yeah and GFS has been pretty juicy as well. 

[moneypitmike]

interesting NAMs....contrats Jeff.

 

[jbenedet]

This still looks more like a late blooming miller B to me. Two maxes. One in far western sections before the transfer and the second in mid coast- down east Maine, + (maybe the cape). There will be a min in between that transfer as clipper fizzles. 
 

Think less norlun, more miller B ish type evolution. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and GFS has been pretty juicy as well. 

Seems like the GFS is at least a bit more impressive with the WAA. 

Not sure what to make out of the NAMs but I am a little concerned with them because the solutions aren't farfetched. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Seems like the GFS is at least a bit more impressive with the WAA. 

Not sure what to make out of the NAMs but I am a little concerned with them because the solutions aren't farfetched. 

But the NAM’s are far fetched.  Are you calling for a coating again? 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

But the NAM’s are far fetched.  Are you calling for a coating again? 

Euro isn't that far off from the NAM solutions either...Euro is slightly juicier but not by a lot. I'd still be going 1-3" for most of SNE. I'd need more proof this system has the juice before putting a 2" floor on the forecast. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But the NAM’s are far fetched.  Are you calling for a coating again? 

They aren't, their evolution is entirely realistic. This one is most likely going to be more of a nowcast

May put together a forecast later this afternoon or early this evening. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro isn't that far off from the NAM solutions either...Euro is slightly juicier but not by a lot. I'd still be going 1-3" for most of SNE. I'd need more proof this system has the juice before putting a 2" floor on the forecast. 

Yeah if I was making a snowfall forecast now I would go in the 1-3" range for a large area...maybe something along the lines of 3-4" for the Berks and maybe far northwest CT. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah if I was making a snowfall forecast now I would go in the 1-3" range for a large area...maybe something along the lines of 3-4" for the Berks and maybe far northwest CT. 

I still like my one-and-done map from the weekend.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still like my one-and-done map from the weekend.

 

Other than far S coast no one is turning to rain though. It’s trended colder