Light Snowfall (1" - 4") on Tuesday Dec 23 For NYC Region (Discussion & Observations)

[Northof78]

Steady light snow, dusting on all surfaces

[snywx]

29° w/ moderate snow

2" otg 

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, the NAM continued to trim snowfall amounts for New York City where a coating is far more likely than the NAM's earlier 2" amount.

Checking historical data, the last time NYC saw 2.0" or more snow with a minimum temperature of 34° or above was January 23, 1966 (2.4" with 0.72" precipitation). The guidance showed < 0.25" precipitation. Aside from the above freezing temperatures, the light precipitation rate was also a "red flag." The last time New York City saw 2.0" or more snowfall with a low of 34° or above and < 0.25" precipitation was March 13, 1943. Then, 2.8" of snow fell with 0.23" precipitation and a low of 34°. The snow fell over a two-hour period with 0.16" of precipitation with a peak hourly amount of 0.11". The guidance showed peak hourly precipitation of 0.04" for the current weak system. 

As noted previously about snowfall with above freezing temperatures, in New York City, only 25.6% of storms have seen measurable snowfall with a daily low of 33° or above with just 9.2% seeing 1" or more snowfall. Almost three-quarters (74.4%) of such events have seen only a trace of snowfall. Put another way, more than 90% of such systems with snowfall at above freezing temperatures saw < 1" of snow. With low precipitation rates, the < 1" figure was the most likely outcome. 

Will that be correct? We'll know by this afternoon.

Finally, 1"-3" well north and west of New York City still looks reasonable. Places like Binghamton and Middletown could see 3"-5".

[WestBabylonWeather]

Had snow for a bit. 
 

rain and 34 

[Krs4Lfe]

5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Had snow for a bit. 
 

rain and 34 

Yeah some light white rain here in Queens. Won’t be surprised if there’s no accumulation when all is said and done 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Drove north a bit for work a few miles. 
 

snow and a coating on some pavement and grass 

[psv88]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Drove north a bit for work a few miles. 
 

snow and a coating on some pavement and grass 

33/31 and snowing nicely here. Coating on grass. 

 

 

 

[mob1]

Coating on colder surfaces, with snow continuing to fall. 

[EastonSN+]

35 and light snow. Schools canceled.

[NorthShoreWx]

Barely doing anything here ..a few spits of snain.  34⁰

[BlizzLuv]

Light dusting on cars and colder grassy areas. All fell within last hour or so. 33.7F

Spoiler

 

 

[psv88]

[Tatamy]

No snow here.  35/28 Just cloudy.

[donsutherland1]

From a short time ago:

[RU848789]

Woke up around 6:30 am to light snow and as of 7:00 am it's 32F and we have about 3/8" of snow on all surfaces, so it's a little slick out there, especially on sidewalks and driveways. Snowing lightly and radar looks fairly weak/disorganized right now, so if we don't get some more snow soon, accumulations will suffer with later snowfall, as temps will likely be up to 33-34F by 9 am. 

[NorthShoreWx]

18 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Barely doing anything here ..a few spits of snain.  34⁰

I should have waited a few minutes.  Snowing now.  Slight dusting on shaded pavement.  33.8⁰

[IrishRob17]

A coating on the grass, 1" officially on the board. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Light snow. 29.5 

Measured. 75" new

[bluewave]

34° and light snow here with a light coating on the colder surfaces.

[snywx]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

A coating on the grass, 1" officially on the board. 

Wow big difference here

2.9” here

29 w/ moderate snow continuing 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, snywx said:

29° w/ moderate snow

2" otg 

WPC map fail! You're going way over 2" lol

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, snywx said:

Wow big difference here

2.9” here

29 w/ moderate snow continuing 

I don't wanna get carried away. But radar looks like it could be 4-6" for you. Mesos have been hinting at narrow heavy bands for days. Has been very consistent. Maybe it breaks up... we'll see. But IMO, poor job by NWS recognizing this. 24 hours ago the forecast was for <1" of snow. WPC odds of 2" were <10%. That is simply unacceptable considering the very consistent model guidance. Not enough warning for very bad morning commute driving conditions.

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

WPC map fail! You're going way over 2" lol

Ive noticed a heavier band that set up along the NY/NJ border stretching NW-SE. Its maybe 5-10 miles wide. Ive been fluctuating between moderate & heavy snow rates 

[the_other_guy]

Full snow cover in Hastings even on roads. South of Cross County nothing.

 

Sorry CPK guys, too warm this go around. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

31.1 with light/moderate snow. Eyeballing 1.5-2 inches.

[BxEngine]

Getting some moderate snow here, passed an inch awhile ago will check the board when done shopping. This was about an hour ago:

[RU848789]

Nice band over us the past 15 minutes; looks good for the next 30 min, at least...

[RU848789]

27 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Light snow. 29.5 

Measured. 75" new

75" is over 6 feet!

[psv88]

Let’s call it 0.1”

 

[ForestHillWx]

Woke up to a dusting; getting a decent band with better rates now. Schools are closed to extend the long break.