December 14th - Snow showers or Plowable snow?

[Bryan63]

Nice to have trends work in our favor down this way, hope it pans out!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Scott is chugging eggnog and buying more presents for the FAM after that 18z nam run.. 

this has quietly gotten oriented a bit better so even those with more latitude, especially in eastern ma, may do pretty well. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if somewhere from like Foxboro to scooter did pretty well.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Are you just thinking that the heavy band on immediate shore and points south robs all the snow and subsidence directly north with no other banding?

Correct, I think that is going to be a huge player here. Outside of that heavier banding signal, it's really difficult to find much in the way of lift. It just seems really weak to me, plus the concerns with subsidence. The stronger that fronto band ends up being, the greater the likelihood for subsidence north of it. 

I think everyone is going to see light snow, but north of the shoreline it's not going to amount to any more than a coating. There may be some localized 1'' amounts because there might be some brief, heavier pockets of lift moving through but I think its just a very steady light snow but very small flakes. The duration of the snow too will be difficult to really get widespread 1" totals north of the shoreline. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

this has quietly gotten oriented a bit better so even those with more latitude, especially in eastern ma, may do pretty well. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if somewhere from like Foxboro to scooter did pretty well.

NAM 3km has a happy ending in Eastern Mass, would be a fun pats game, would snow until midnight in parts of MASS on the NAM lol

[wx2fish]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAM 3km has a happy ending in Eastern Mass, would be a fun pats game 

Both of the NAMs got a little inverted troughy looking at the end. May help toss a little qpf further north 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Correct, I think that is going to be a huge player here. Outside of that heavier banding signal, it's really difficult to find much in the way of lift. It just seems really weak to me, plus the concerns with subsidence. The stronger that fronto band ends up being, the greater the likelihood for subsidence north of it. 

I think everyone is going to see light snow, but north of the shoreline it's not going to amount to any more than a coating. There may be some localized 1'' amounts because there might be some brief, heavier pockets of lift moving through but I think its just a very steady light snow but very small flakes. The duration of the snow too will be difficult to really get widespread 1" totals north of the shoreline. 

You gonna learn today…

[QuietCorner]

So far, no warnings for my neck of the woods. Hoping for a solid inch in NECT.

[Kitz Craver]

2-4” in Northern New Haven County is a good call IMO

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You gonna learn today…

We shall see. 

Watch there be a swath of totals ranging 6-8" from NJ across LI maybe even southern RI and SE MA and then some screw north of that. But there is only so much room north the fronto banding can get. These bumps north in QPF are models likely honing in on the fact that these bands usually end up a bit north than initially advertised so while bumping north with the max QPF, there is a whole shift north in the QPF field with no account for subsidence that would have to occur. If air is rising somewhere it needs to sink somewhere else at an equal intensity. We may see the immediate shoreline get into the heavier banding but that just means more of a struggle north of there

[weatherwiz]

But glad snow on the shore isn't starting until overnight. Have to make a 2+ hour trip to Stamford from Springfield right now  

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, QuietCorner said:

So far, no warnings for my neck of the woods. Hoping for a solid inch in NECT.

3-5” there 

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Correct, I think that is going to be a huge player here. Outside of that heavier banding signal, it's really difficult to find much in the way of lift. It just seems really weak to me, plus the concerns with subsidence. The stronger that fronto band ends up being, the greater the likelihood for subsidence north of it. 

I think everyone is going to see light snow, but north of the shoreline it's not going to amount to any more than a coating. There may be some localized 1'' amounts because there might be some brief, heavier pockets of lift moving through but I think its just a very steady light snow but very small flakes. The duration of the snow too will be difficult to really get widespread 1" totals north of the shoreline. 

I am not nearly as conservative you are Wiz, but your concerns are valid...  Sometimes we tend to look for more reasons for it to snow and not emphasis any negative aspects...  I'm ok with 1 to 2 north of the 84 corridor but have been wary about hitting +2-inch amounts too hard... 2 to 3 southwards into the coastal plain with 4-inch spots. 

I might be under-playing fluff factor, but need to see fronto zone come northward a bit before I become more bullish across northern third of CT.

Slight norward shift would be enough for me to become more bullish...

 

[ma blizzard]

dam 3k NAM is just about a KU  

not bad with invt snows hanging on into the afternoon! 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I am not nearly as conservative you are Wiz, but your concerns are valid...  Sometimes we tend to look for more reasons for it to snow and not emphasis any negative aspects...  I'm ok with 1 to 2 north of the 84 corridor but have been wary about hitting +2-inch amounts too hard... 2 to 3 southwards into the coastal plain with 4-inch spots. 

I might be under-playing fluff factor, but need to see fronto zone come northward a bit before I become more bullish across northern third of CT.

Slight norward shift would be enough for me to become more bullish...

 

The fluff factor has certainly been in the back of my mind too and I would generally go higher because of that, however, when looking at soundings, I am just not seeing much in the way of lift…and in order for us to maximize the ratio potential, we need lift!!

[Patrick-02540]

19 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

Nice to have trends work in our favor down this way, hope it pans out!

It's nice that EVERYONE is benefitting for once with these little ticks, and there's no robbing Peter to pay Paul scenario.  

[DavisStraight]

35 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

this has quietly gotten oriented a bit better so even those with more latitude, especially in eastern ma, may do pretty well. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if somewhere from like Foxboro to scooter did pretty well.

Great Snow game tomorrow, perfect timing.

[moneypitmike]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

But glad snow on the shore isn't starting until overnight. Have to make a 2+ hour trip to Stamford from Springfield right now  

100% agree.  The sun angle at this point would really inhibit daytime accumulation.  Meanwhile, NORLUN or bust.

 

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

100% agree.  The sun angle at this point would really inhibit daytime accumulation.  Meanwhile, NORLUN or bust.

 

Lost track of your pits, are you south or north for this one?

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Lost track of your pits, are you south or north for this one?

Tonight I'm in our temporary PVD rental.  I'll be heading up to Pit2 (Maine) tomorrow.  On Friday, we'll have a new Pi1 in Mattapoisett.  At that point, I'll never speak of PVD again. 

Most of my time this last few months has been in Bath.  The new house will require a lot of work.  So barring getting a job in Maine, I'll be spending a lot of time with the new fixer-upper.  I'll hightail it to Maine whenever there's a storm coming----hopefully snow blowing bill be a frequent excuse to get up there.

[moneypitmike]

New BOX map.

 

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

New BOX map.

 

2-6? Really? C'mon...

[moneypitmike]

And GYX.  Quite a range of .5 - 3".  I guess it all depends on where the Norlun sets up.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

New BOX map.

 

Solid 3-4”

[WalpoleJoe]

3 hours ago, Shaun Curry said:

You can almost put a pin on my house on the line between 2-4" and 4-7" at the top of Point Judith Pond in South Kingstown, RI.

You must have a.beautiful location....Fond memories on that pond....we had a house on Great Island for many years, great pond for boating with access to go anywhere.....Great Island has changed so much since we sold.....too much NY and CT money moved in, changed the character.....sorry for off topic. 

[ORH_wxman]

18z gfs ticking NW too

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z gfs ticking NW too

Nice trending near go time.

[CarverWX]

I will be ecstatic if I get 3-6

[Bryan63]

Putting out a slightly different map on social media.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

I will be ecstatic if I get 3-6

I think that’s a pretty good bet there now. At the very minimum, it’s hard to see anything less than 2” falling there and these later model runs are definitely giving a lot more upside if things break right. 

[Torch Tiger]

congrats each and all