12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[Maestrobjwa]

53 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Just my opinion, but if there's going to be doom and screw job posts, can we put them in the panic room?  

Ha...role reversal right? Lol

[nj2va]

26/25, its been flurries / SN- all day.  Looks like the main show should be starting in a few hours.

[Maestrobjwa]

39 here...I mean that's not that far to go to get to freezing if it doesn't go any higher. A couple models have cut back slightly due to mixing but if that above freezing layer is shallow like @WxUSAF pointed out...you'd think that wouldn't be much of an issue where I am.

[aldie 22]

Here ya go Randy just for you @stormtracker

[WxUSAF]

NBM looks good to me

 

[Terpeast]

39 here, underperforming temp forecast (it was supposed to be 45)

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

NBM looks good to me

 

Yeah, not sure why the vibes nosedived. EURO was a step back? Otherwise we’re as all systems go as we can be for this for those who were already in the game. Was always going to be a bit of a nowcast scenario. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Mt Holly upgrading.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Mt Holly upgrading.

Imagine LWX follows for NEMDPUMMELED

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z HRRR 8 am compared to 12Z at 8 am.

[bncho]

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Mt Holly upgrading.

Ya idk why no adv for Frederick county yet 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, not sure why the vibes nosedived. EURO was a step back? Otherwise we’re as all systems go as we can be for this for those who were already in the game. Was always going to be a bit of a nowcast scenario. 

Yeah anyone east of the BR is in the game, just the vibe changed when the models shifted main band NW, which isn’t surprising to see. 

[Weather Will]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya idk why no adv for Frederick county yet 

EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0028.251214T0100Z-251214T1200Z/
Frederick MD-
215 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3
  inches. Localized 4 to 5 inch totals across the Catoctin Mountains.

* WHERE...Frederick MD County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rain snow mix will likely start between
  7-10pm with a transition to snow after 10pm. Highest impacts will
  be across northern portions of the county north of Frederick.
  Slick travel is likely across the MD-140 corridor and US-15
  corridor from Catoctin Furnace points north toward the PA/MD line.
  Additional slick travel concerns can be expected along MD-550 from
  Sabillasville to Thurmont. Use caution if traveling in these areas
  late tonight into Sunday morning.

[Eskimo Joe]

18z HRRR would be low end warning snowfall for northern Baltimore/Harford/Cecil. . . .

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0028.251214T0100Z-251214T1200Z/
Frederick MD-
215 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3
  inches. Localized 4 to 5 inch totals across the Catoctin Mountains.

* WHERE...Frederick MD County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rain snow mix will likely start between
  7-10pm with a transition to snow after 10pm. Highest impacts will
  be across northern portions of the county north of Frederick.
  Slick travel is likely across the MD-140 corridor and US-15
  corridor from Catoctin Furnace points north toward the PA/MD line.
  Additional slick travel concerns can be expected along MD-550 from
  Sabillasville to Thurmont. Use caution if traveling in these areas
  late tonight into Sunday morning.

Spoken into existence lol

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya idk why no adv for Frederick county yet 

Just now there is. Eastern Loudoun as well

[psuhoffman]

It’s gone snow 

[TSSN+]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s gone snow 

Gunna? lol 

[psuhoffman]

My 7 year old just put out this little sled ornament she made at school and said maybe it’s magic and will make it snow. She has no idea…

[IronTy]

Cold Weather Advisory in Garrett county for -15F windchills.  Wish I was there!

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My 7 year old just put out this little sled ornament she made at school and said maybe it’s magic and will make it snow. She has now idea…

ask her to make more ornaments this winter—it’ll help us a lot

[baltosquid]

It seems like a big difference maker for 95 yet to be resolved is gonna be how early it can get snowing in earnest - heaviest band seems confidently placed a bit to the NW of 95 but whether that is a 2 or more inch drop off or just half-to inch drop comes down to whether we get a good start in the early hours or if that is a loss. Hoping the met talk in here about shallow warmth pans out and it does indeed get going quickly!

[Amped]

Big jump in totals for north Central MD. It went from dryslot to jackpot in the last 3 run cycles.

[yoda]

Can we take the 18z RAP?

[Prestige Worldwide]

Just now, yoda said:

Can we take the 18z RAP?

Rap it up!

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Can we take the 18z RAP?

 

[stormtracker]

40 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Here ya go Randy just for you @stormtracker

So a few things:  I’m gonna ban you.  

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

If you look back, it's been consistent with those kind of totals, save a few minor tweaks, since it's 3z run.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Wait, did you move to the western burbs?

We all can’t make Ji money.    No. I’m in DC, but I’m on the SW boundary.  I’d like some cushion