Paleocene Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, H2O said: Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. Whatever falls falls. Dawg why do you think we are on this forum. I'm here to look at colorful maps and dream about snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Eps fwiw Looks like a parting kiss-off by winter. Shame lr maps looking like just that. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps fwiw Looks like a parting kiss-off by winter. Shame lr maps looking like just that. We'll see. This isn’t bad really. We likely see some snow here at least. Some lucky guy in Delaware gets 3 inches and I get 1, who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: So we had a good projection but the problem is in 6 hours the examples will be very different. Won’t build on this run, won’t increase, and will revert back to 0-2. Thus , come verification time (if this is even employed anymore) the range of 0-4” will be confirmed It’s too meso scale for guidance to possibly get right. We wouldn’t even try to nail the exact location of a thunderstorm 60 hours out. This is the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s too meso scale for guidance to possibly get right. We wouldn’t even try to nail the exact location of a thunderstorm 60 hours out. This is the same thing. So heavy snow periods could. Come up just about anywhere where mesos are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, H2O said: Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. Whatever falls falls. Preach 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 0z Hrr is north at Hr48, and has a wide area of precip NWS going for 3" for the Baltimore area, assuming that it's a bit wetter than models. Winter Storm Watches issued for WV, southern Ohio, and SW PA. I wonder if we are next tomorrow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, H2O said: Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. Whatever falls falls. Yeah whatever falls falls. But most of the life of a snow weenie is in fact spent living and dying with each model run. Come on dude, you know this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NAM is a good bit drier...still has same coverage tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM is a good bit drier...still has same coverage tho I’m still hugging the 12z EURO. Pretty sure no models have ran since 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m still hugging the 12z EURO. Pretty sure no models have ran since ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, stormtracker said: ? I’m being delusional. If nothing has ran since, it’s the best guidance we’ve got still. awaiting my 5” storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m being delusional. If nothing has ran since, it’s the best guidance we’ve got still. awaiting my 5” storm Ah, ok, Yeah, I hugging the 12z suite tightly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gotta love the NAM. Such a predictably awful model lol. When they gonna retire the damn thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Gotta love the NAM. Such a predictably awful model lol. When they gonna retire the damn thing? Probably this spring. But what about this run is so clearly awful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, high risk said: Probably this spring. But what about this run is so clearly awful? Yeah, not a terrible run for us snow wise. Not that it’ll verify (probably) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Probably this spring. But what about this run is so clearly awful? RRFS replaces the NAM, right? Nobody should look at its 18z run for this storm, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, high risk said: Probably this spring. But what about this run is so clearly awful? Just how dry it is from the previous run. Not that this is exclusively a NAM thing, but it does tend to vacillate pretty wildly. The proverbial 'NAMing' that lasts a run or 2 then disappears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, high risk said: Probably this spring. But what about this run is so clearly awful? Yeah, it gives me 2-3" snow depth. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The NAM Nest and HiRes Window FV3 both have a similar idea of initial rain turning to snow, with a nice band moving to the southeast in the late night hours. Surface temperatures are VERY marginal, but most of the column is "cold" other than right near the ground, so it should be mostly snow after initial rain for some. It's a good thing that this will fall at night, or else stickage would be completely dependent on rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Few takeaways that I've taken from this forum today: 1. There will likely be some banding that will set up somewhere around 30 miles east or west of the I-95 corridor, we probably won't know where exactly until right before the event - Likely will be 1-3" for most areas. Locally 4"+ is possible depending on where banding sets up 2. Guidance seems to generally like Baltimore up to Philly for the highest totals 3. I don't think the south will win again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, bncho said: Few takeaways that I've taken from this forum today: 1. There will likely be some banding that will set up somewhere around 30 miles east or west of the I-95 corridor, we probably won't know where exactly until right before the event - Likely will be 1-3" for most areas. Locally 4"+ is possible depending on where banding sets up 2. Guidance seems to generally like Baltimore up to Philly for the highest totals 3. I don't think the south will win again lol And from what I've seen on long range this'll be it until probably the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Don't be disappointed when this thing fizzles to just about a nothing burger in some spots to a 2" max in the places that get it "good". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Latest NBM still suggests a general 1-3" across much of the region. Go with it for now. If there is meso banding that produces locally higher amounts, that won't be resolved until closer to game time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This one’s not ours. Time to face the music. It’s a Philly-NYC event. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Don't be disappointed when this thing fizzles to just about a nothing burger in some spots The mountain folks are going to be insufferable after this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago WB OZ ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago WB OZ ICONSimilar to the Euro, just wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ ICON Hagerstown screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ ICON Sold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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