12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[Paleocene]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. 
 

Whatever falls falls.

Dawg why do you think we are on this forum. I'm here to look at colorful maps and dream about snow 

[mitchnick]

Eps fwiw

Looks like a parting kiss-off by winter. Shame lr maps looking like just that. We'll see.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps fwiw

Looks like a parting kiss-off by winter. Shame lr maps looking like just that. We'll see.

This isn’t bad really.  We likely see some snow here at least.  Some lucky guy in Delaware gets 3 inches and I get 1, who cares. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

So we had a good projection but the problem is in 6 hours the examples will be very different.  Won’t build on this run, won’t increase, and will revert back to 0-2.  Thus , come verification time (if this is even employed anymore) the range of 0-4” will be confirmed 

It’s too meso scale for guidance to possibly get right.  We wouldn’t even try to nail the exact location of a thunderstorm 60 hours out. This is the same thing. 

[winter_warlock]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s too meso scale for guidance to possibly get right.  We wouldn’t even try to nail the exact location of a thunderstorm 60 hours out. This is the same thing. 

  So heavy snow  periods could. Come up just about anywhere where mesos are?

[mappy]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. 
 

Whatever falls falls.

Preach

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z Hrr is north at Hr48, and has a wide area of precip

NWS going for 3" for the Baltimore area, assuming that it's a bit wetter than models. Winter Storm Watches issued for WV, southern Ohio, and SW PA. I wonder if we are next tomorrow? 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, H2O said:

Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. 
 

Whatever falls falls.

Yeah whatever falls falls. But most of the life of a snow weenie is in fact spent living and dying with each model run. Come on dude, you know this. 

[stormtracker]

NAM is a good bit drier...still has same coverage tho

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

NAM is a good bit drier...still has same coverage tho

I’m still hugging the 12z EURO. Pretty sure no models have ran since 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m still hugging the 12z EURO. Pretty sure no models have ran since 

?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

?

I’m being delusional. If nothing has ran since, it’s the best guidance we’ve got still. awaiting my 5” storm 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m being delusional. If nothing has ran since, it’s the best guidance we’ve got still. awaiting my 5” storm 

Ah, ok,   Yeah, I hugging the 12z suite tightly

[CAPE]

Gotta love the NAM. Such a predictably awful model lol. When they gonna retire the damn thing?

 

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gotta love the NAM. Such a predictably awful model lol. When they gonna retire the damn thing?

 

      Probably this spring.   But what about this run is so clearly awful?

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

      Probably this spring.   But what about this run is so clearly awful?

Yeah, not a terrible run for us snow wise. Not that it’ll verify (probably)

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

      Probably this spring.   But what about this run is so clearly awful?

RRFS replaces the NAM, right? Nobody should look at its 18z run for this storm, lol 

[CAPE]

Just now, high risk said:

      Probably this spring.   But what about this run is so clearly awful?

Just how dry it is from the previous run. Not that this is exclusively a NAM thing, but it does tend to vacillate pretty wildly. The proverbial 'NAMing' that lasts a run or 2 then disappears.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

      Probably this spring.   But what about this run is so clearly awful?

Yeah, it gives me 2-3" snow depth. I'll take it. 

[high risk]

The NAM Nest and HiRes Window FV3 both have a similar idea of initial rain turning to snow, with a nice band moving to the southeast in the late night hours.    Surface temperatures are VERY marginal, but most of the column is "cold" other than right near the ground, so it should be mostly snow after initial rain for some.   It's a good thing that this will fall at night, or else stickage would be completely dependent on rates.

[bncho]

Few takeaways that I've taken from this forum today:

1. There will likely be some banding that will set up somewhere around 30 miles east or west of the I-95 corridor, we probably won't know where exactly until right before the event

        - Likely will be 1-3" for most areas. Locally 4"+ is possible depending on where banding sets up

2. Guidance seems to generally like Baltimore up to Philly for the highest totals

3. I don't think the south will win again lol

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Few takeaways that I've taken from this forum today:

1. There will likely be some banding that will set up somewhere around 30 miles east or west of the I-95 corridor, we probably won't know where exactly until right before the event

        - Likely will be 1-3" for most areas. Locally 4"+ is possible depending on where banding sets up

2. Guidance seems to generally like Baltimore up to Philly for the highest totals

3. I don't think the south will win again lol

 

And from what I've seen on long range this'll be it until probably the first week of January.

[DDweatherman]

Don't be disappointed when this thing fizzles to just about a nothing burger in some spots to a 2" max in the places that get it "good". 

[CAPE]

Latest NBM still suggests a general 1-3" across much of the region. Go with it for now. If there is meso banding that produces locally higher amounts, that won't be resolved until closer to game time.

[Negnao]

This one’s not ours. Time to face the music. It’s a Philly-NYC event. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Don't be disappointed when this thing fizzles to just about a nothing burger in some spots

The mountain folks are going to be insufferable after this.

[Weather Will]

WB OZ ICON

[jayyy]

WB OZ ICON

Similar to the Euro, just wetter.

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB OZ ICON

Hagerstown screw zone.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB OZ ICON

Sold