12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

I’m no Randy but through hr36 the gfs will probably NOT end up a disaster.

Pretty similar through hr 65

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, T. August said:

I’m no Randy but through hr36 the gfs will probably NOT end up a disaster.

Oh it's a disaster for some

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Oh it's a disaster for some

Looks like the stripe got more narrow

[CAPE]

[baltosquid]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Looks like the stripe got more narrow

It will end up falling on 1 lane of 95 from DC to NY

[T. August]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Oh it's a disaster for some

Yeah virtually identical - awful for nw areas.

[CAPE]

This will not be the event that unites us unfortunately. Good thing is it is a rather wimpy pos so even those who get the 'good' snow are probably looking at a max of 2-3", and most will see an inch or less.

[baltosquid]

Really looked like it might come north a touch even if still narrow but the GFS is dead set on a bay jackpot

[ravensrule]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This will not be the event that unites us unfortunately. Good thing is it is a rather wimpy pos so even those who get the 'good' snow are probably looking at a max of 2-3", and most will see an inch or less.

Doesn’t look like the most will involve you. 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Doesn’t look like the most will involve you. 

Or you on most guidance.

The latest blend should relax some of those on the fringe on various model simulations. This appears to be a relatively small scale event, but still enough variation among the models, so we just cant know yet. Read enough AFDs and one will find the forecast offices prefer to go with the NBM at this range in these situations.

[WEATHER53]

So we had a good projection but the problem is in 6 hours the examples will be very different.  Won’t build on this run, won’t increase, and will revert back to 0-2.  Thus , come verification time (if this is even employed anymore) the range of 0-4” will be confirmed 

[WxUSAF]

The 1934Z GRAF seems to support the model consensus

 

[nj2va]

Watch posted for the mountains:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
504 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

MDZ509-WVZ501-120615-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0011.251213T2100Z-251214T1800Z/
Western Garrett-Western Grant-
504 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  7 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could gust as
  high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Western Garrett County. In West Virginia,
  Western Grant County.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Steady snow will overspread the area late
  Saturday afternoon and persist through the overnight. After
  daybreak Sunday, the steady snow will transition to snow showers.
  The heaviest snowfall rates are expected overnight Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

[Ruin]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The 1934Z GRAF seems to support the model consensus

 

D***That's some h********, and how it just breaks up with the mountains

[CAPE]

Mount Holly going with a general 1-3", and defaulting to the NBM(surprise!) due to the current disparity among the guidance. Also mention the potential for a stripe of 3-5" somewhere in the area if some of the more juiced up runs verify.

[H2O]

Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. 
 

Whatever falls falls.

[GATECH]

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. 
 

Whatever falls falls.

Or doesn’t fall…

[T. August]

[mitchnick]

18z Euro faster and weaker

[mitchnick]

 Final

 

[GATECH]

I feel I have seen this movie a hundred times since I moved here in 1998…these redevelopment clipper things work out about 1/20 times…the last to actually work I think was in 2014…though everything worked out that year.   If I was a betting man, which I am not, I would bet on snow north east along 95 from Baltimore, south of that nada….but F*ck it, we have been on a heater.  Snow from Fredericksburg northeast along 95, 15 miles either side, the more you go NE.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 Final

 

2” for us? I’m in 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 Final

 

Somehow the Grey area always finds my back yard. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

2” for us? I’m in 

Since there's no other choice, me too!

[Eskimo Joe]

Classic La Nina and Miller B(ish) setup...a more poleward trend for storms this winter is clear. Thankfully, this was not slated to be a major event. Otherwise there would be some real heart ache here.

With that said, I will happily take 1" - 3" of weekend snow just before Christmas.

[mitchnick]

Look on the bright side. None of us have anything to lose whether it snows or not. Here's the 12z Euro snow depth map for next Friday morning.  Lol

[bncho]

There's no reason to be down about the 18z Euro IMO. Too many things in play for anything at all to be concrete like @psuhoffman and @CAPE alluded to. Nothing is anywhere close to certain until 24 hours until the event, maybe even less.

[Ji]

Soooo dry

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Soooo dry

...for sooo long

Effin' Niña and -PDO combo

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

This is mostly overnight anyway, just hoping to wake up to white ground with arctic temps coming in.