12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

I’m no Randy but through hr36 the gfs will probably NOT end up a disaster.

Pretty similar through hr 65

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, T. August said:

I’m no Randy but through hr36 the gfs will probably NOT end up a disaster.

Oh it's a disaster for some

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Oh it's a disaster for some

Looks like the stripe got more narrow

[CAPE]

[baltosquid]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Looks like the stripe got more narrow

It will end up falling on 1 lane of 95 from DC to NY

[T. August]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Oh it's a disaster for some

Yeah virtually identical - awful for nw areas.

[CAPE]

This will not be the event that unites us unfortunately. Good thing is it is a rather wimpy pos so even those who get the 'good' snow are probably looking at a max of 2-3", and most will see an inch or less.

[baltosquid]

Really looked like it might come north a touch even if still narrow but the GFS is dead set on a bay jackpot

[ravensrule]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This will not be the event that unites us unfortunately. Good thing is it is a rather wimpy pos so even those who get the 'good' snow are probably looking at a max of 2-3", and most will see an inch or less.

Doesn’t look like the most will involve you. 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Doesn’t look like the most will involve you. 

Or you on most guidance.

The latest blend should relax some of those on the fringe on various model simulations. This appears to be a relatively small scale event, but still enough variation among the models, so we just cant know yet. Read enough AFDs and one will find the forecast offices prefer to go with the NBM at this range in these situations.

[WEATHER53]

So we had a good projection but the problem is in 6 hours the examples will be very different.  Won’t build on this run, won’t increase, and will revert back to 0-2.  Thus , come verification time (if this is even employed anymore) the range of 0-4” will be confirmed 

[WxUSAF]

The 1934Z GRAF seems to support the model consensus