EastonSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago NWS currently has DC and surrounding areas around 2 inches. Just a little shift and we are in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Becoming guardedly optimistic we get something here but we still have to watch over the next 24 hours given the chaotic pattern. Slight chance it amps a little more and can produce a 3-5” type event but overall it looks weak and more of a 1-3” deal. But it could still shear out because of the fast flow or be suppressed. We just have to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago NAM would be 9-12 hours of light to moderate snow verbatim... I'd take that and run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Bro what are you talking about lmao Ignore; well known troll who is post limited. NAM is 3-5 region wide FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: NAM would be 9-12 hours of light to moderate snow verbatim... I'd take that and run I don't buy it but nam is warning level for parts of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Stormlover74 said: I don't buy it but nam is warning level for parts of the area nor do I -- just sharing what it showed. I do think 1-3" is on the table for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Stormlover74 said: I don't buy it but nam is warning level for parts of the area Good to see it amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, BoulderWX said: nor do I -- just sharing what it showed. I do think 1-3" is on the table for many Yeah I'd gladly take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Perfect wintry event to really drive in the Christmas season. We'll be getting our tree Sunday morning. 1-3" makes everything look great, easy to keep the roads clear, and minimal shoveling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago NAM shows the ceiling for this storm 3-6 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago NAM would of course be the best case outcome for me but it’s the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NAM would of course be the best case outcome for me but it’s the NAM. Thankfully that model is about to go bye bye forever soon. The only time it’s ever good is with warm noses. Other than that, good riddance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thankfully that model is about to go bye bye forever soon. The only time it’s ever good is with warm noses. Other than that, good riddance It's out of range right now too. Good within 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thankfully that model is about to go bye bye forever soon. The only time it’s ever good is with warm noses. Other than that, good riddance They are replacing it or just getting rid of it completely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: They are replacing it or just getting rid of it completely? It’s being replaced by the RRFS I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The NAM is an outlier right now in the upper levels. It shows a trof structure further west and less positively tilted than everything else. But it also trended better than 6z. It would be very encouraging to see big moves towards this today. The 12z NAM would also feel a lot snowier than what most think of when they see 3-6". That's weekend, daytime snow with cold 925mb temps, near freezing surface, and probable banding. It's a great and unlikely outcome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Icon slightly more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Rgem is very solid. 3 to 5 for most. Less north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem is very solid. 3 to 5 for most. Less north Where do you see the RGEM showing 5 inch totals anywhere in the metro? RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025121112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem is very solid. 3 to 5 for most. Less north yup, move towards the euro with the TPV more tucked in and higher heights over the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Where do you see the RGEM showing 5 inch totals anywhere in the metro? RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025121112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Where do you see the RGEM showing 5 inch totals anywhere in the metro? lol it has 0.4" liquid in NYC. 3-5" is a perfect description 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago why even bother with snowmaps? use liquid and then apply 10:1 or slightly above / below depending on DGZ and dynamics. this event would produce 12-15:1 pretty easily on the northern end of the precip shield; these events usually do so 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Where do you see the RGEM showing 5 inch totals anywhere in the metro? RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025121112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Sorry 3.5 to 4.6789" 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: why even bother with snowmaps? use liquid and then apply 10:1 or slightly above / below depending on DGZ and dynamics. this event would produce 12-15:1 pretty easily on the northern end of the precip shield; these events usually do so That's why I almost always post the 10:1 maps, as those give you easy-to-calculate QPF too and to do one's own ratio adjustments, as Kuchera generally sucks as a snow prediction algorithm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: That's why I almost always post the 10:1 maps, as those give you easy-to-calculate QPF too and to do one's own ratio adjustments, as Kuchera generally sucks as a snow prediction algorithm. The RGEM pivotal map I linked was 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gfs is slowly getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago We need a negative tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago 41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem is very solid. 3 to 5 for most. Less north The RGEM clearly has less precipitation than the NAM. The RGEM is around 0.3 liquid for the greater metro area with a little more in C/SNJ and a little less in NWNJ and SENY. The NAM is double that... around 0.6 liquid for all of the metro, LI, and NENJ, with less north and south. The NAM (likely overdone) is a great run. The RGEM is a good run. Both were encouraging relative to last night's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago 6 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: We need a negative tilted trough. We’re not getting that with this setup-it’s too fast and progressive, and the PV is pressing south. We have to hope for a slightly steeper ridge out west that can allow for our system to dig a little more and amplify. But in the end there’s a ceiling of probably what the RGEM or NAM have since this will be in and out in a hurry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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