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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
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We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will likely focus snow potential in northern PA and the Laurels with downsloping off of the mountains and probably surface temp issues. Another period of significant LES/upslope likely ensues in the aforementioned focus area of snow potential after the passage of the low. 

More pieces of energy along this fast northern branch dominated flow are in the pipeline behind this, with all major models at 12z today focusing more towards Sunday for a more notable wave traversing PA with a widespread snowfall. Much colder air looks to be in PA for this weekend vs Wednesday. Still some potential light snowfall Friday night as well showing on the Euro. All these waves will be enforcing a continued regime of much below normal temperatures. 

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MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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19 minutes ago, Ruin said:

What's with the last storm's clouds?Not moving out.It's been like three days now and the clouds are still sticking around

There is another system moving through the mid-Atlantic today with more snow - beautiful winter scene in central VA right now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgkdREYOfw0

 

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

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You can tell things have slowed down with my business as we near the holidays....plenty of time for some updated analysis!

Below are the Top 10 snowstorms since January 1, 2020 here in East Nantmeal Township. We have had 5 storms greater than 6 inches but only 2 storms that have exceeded 10" or more.

image.png.ddabab7623a12f4610e67a9d724eb8e6.png

 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Temps have fallen all the way back to 9ºF here so far tonight, with some more room to fall further with a 5ºF dewpoint. KBFD already has another below zero night (-4ºF) currently, which makes two of those within only the first 8 days of December there. Even being generally the coldest official station in PA that’s still pretty impressive. 

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Ruin

Ruin

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funny thing is Ive been looking at my extended outlook for temps just yesterday we had a long stretch of 20s in the middle of the month. Now they are all low 40s and the snow it showed is now rain? what friggin gives I know that far out models suck but what did the models see for the person to be like yep warm up and adjust the temps?

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Voyager

Voyager

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3 hours ago, Ruin said:

funny thing is Ive been looking at my extended outlook for temps just yesterday we had a long stretch of 20s in the middle of the month. Now they are all low 40s and the snow it showed is now rain? what friggin gives I know that far out models suck but what did the models see for the person to be like yep warm up and adjust the temps?

Looks like, per this morning's GFS and Euro, we moderate after the 18th. For this water hauling truck driver, that is a most welcome development. First, loading and unloading the water in these temps, is tricky and challenging. Second, I've already had a few cold related issues with the trucks themselves. Sometimes I wish I'd have chosen a different career where I only had to worry about the weather for my commute to and from work, and not my entire day.

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

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4 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Looking at the ten day, the coming cold doesn't seem to be as... cold as they had initially advertised.

JB said this this morning: 

I am keying on the WPO and the MJO. There is alot of warm air in the pattern day 11-20, but the WPO favors it getting cut down coming to the east. In fact opposite models, there should be an eastern trough week 3 and dont be surprised if the models head that way. Its a rare an unholy alliance, but I think the GEFS is the better model here and I am leaning on it

Somethings gotta give, Either the big telleconnections are wrong or the temperature pattern on the euro is overwarmed

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