First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Speak for yourself  

And a few others lol

[CoastalWx]

The mesos outside of the Nam are quite mild into SNH. 

[WinterWolf]

Let’s see what Goofus says shortly. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Oh, I'm likin' my spot for this one. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

And a few others lol

I feel bad getting excited about this storm 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The mesos outside of the Nam are quite mild into SNH. 

 looking more and more meh outside of ineedsnow/hubbdave land

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I feel bad getting excited about this storm 

Let’s get water to Watatic

[Damage In Tolland]

A lot of folks that were expecting snow are going to be upset (myself included) These short term trends are brutal. I started sensing it yesterday. I was so looking forward to this too . Super depressed

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I feel bad getting excited about this storm 

Feeling dirty ha ha?

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I feel bad getting excited about this storm 

[PowderBeard]

Im surprised no weenie in the 495/128 area has posted the HRDPS yet. When ye ole herp gets posted, you know a good one is on the way. 

[Typhoon Tip]

One would think the models are physically handling this ... but there's an almost nondescript cold front and associated 'bubble' high over lower Ontario and Upstate NY ... DPs in that region are < 20F ... with temperatures about 10-15 F colder.  

It's moving this way.  It may prove important as an antecedent prep for this thing

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

Im surprised no weenie in the 495/128 area has posted the HRDPS yet. When ye ole herp gets posted, you know a good one is on the way. 

Okay, let's see!

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's more like this

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

   ...and I didn't even know any of this was in the works until about 10 minutes ago so .. heh

I just found out about it yesterday.  At least it is on Pivotal

[weatherwiz]

The overall differences between NAM/Euro/GFS seem rather subtle but these subtle differences have significant ramifications into how this unfolds. All kind of seems to be tied into exactly where/when the sfc low becomes more defined and where/when 925/850 lows develop and close off. Of course, there is still the signal in the potential for dual lows. Regardless, this will be a nice hit from parts of Maine through central NH, southern VT and into western MA. Also wondering if we see a secondary smaller max from like Worcester into SE NH

[Lava Rock]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A lot of folks that were expecting snow are going to be upset (myself included) These short term trends are brutal. I started sensing it yesterday. I was so looking forward to this too . Super depressed

go take another run

[ORH_wxman]

ICON warmed a good bit too...not as crazy as NAM, but a solid tick. 12z runs are definitely seeing something so far. 

RGEM looked a little warmer too, but a very small amount vs 06z. 

[CoastalWx]

Reggie warmed 925 into SNH. Lousy trends at 12z.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie warmed 925 into SNH. Lousy trends at 12z.

Not great…

[radarman]

add ICON to the list

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah... really made a mess SOP  yuck

[Damage In Tolland]

The GFS crushed everything on this from days ago. I knew it . Total collapse. What happened to the Messenger shuffle 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The GFS crushed everything on this from days ago. I knew it . Total collapse. What happened to the Messenger shuffle 

Did it? I guess we'll find out tomorrow

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The GFS crushed everything on this from days ago. I knew it . Total collapse. What happened to the Messenger shuffle 

Messenger shuffle would happen between now and go time...usually inside 24h. The lack of the high pressure even sort-of holding on probably will sink us again....it's been a killer for like 4 winters now. Cannot buy a high to even try and hold on. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON warmed a good bit too...not as crazy as NAM, but a solid tick. 12z runs are definitely seeing something so far. 

RGEM looked a little warmer too, but a very small amount vs 06z. 

Or missing?

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Messenger shuffle would happen between now and go time...usually inside 24h. The lack of the high pressure even sort-of holding on probably will sink us again....it's been a killer for like 4 winters now. Cannot buy a high to even try and hold on. 

 

That high is sprinting exit stage right

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Messenger shuffle would happen between now and go time...usually inside 24h. The lack of the high pressure even sort-of holding on probably will sink us again....it's been a killer for like 4 winters now. Cannot buy a high to even try and hold on. 

 

It's true - ish.    And the reason is because the basal velocities around the mid latitudes have risen in recent decade(s). 

It's just straight up statistically not favored to maintain a 'delicate' total confluent structure to the flow, when the fervency et al is tending to move everything along. I.e, less able to resonate in position.

The same thing is happening with teleconnectors, too.   The correlations are still there, but mass field biases, negative or positive, break down faster than the statistically favored or related events have time to materialize.  

This is likely why we keep seeing so many fast field/progressive patterns by behavior.  Then we get these torpedo lows  slipping along via shortwaves escaping out over the N Atl barely 84 hours from arriving off the Pacific.