First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[ineedsnow]

[ineedsnow]

EPS members shifting west.. its coming

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like I have my reasons and it’s based off meteorology. 

Never said anything else  Even superstars have bias.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

EPS crushes SE Mass. must be wrong.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

EPS crushes SE Mass. must be wrong.

At some point when Dendrite stops trashing  Euro EPS AI then you know its on.

[ORH_wxman]

I think you all are overestimating how good the forecasts/model guidance was 10 or 15 years ago. We used to have SWFEs in the late 2000s and early 2010s hammering DC like 4 days out and then mixing got into S NH by verification.
 

Back in the days when Ekster was trolling Nikolai 4 days out on how the GFS DC jackpot was a great sign for New England.
 

Once we got inside 84 hours, we started getting deadly at times (and all of us knew many of the model biases back then as they were more distinct)….but even then, we had plenty of crazy moves inside of 3 days. 

[moneypitmike]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would definitely lose it if I get skunked, and interior se MA has a nice event.

 

My wife is already gearing up to tell me I was wrong and that it actually does snow in Mattapoisett.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think you all are overestimating how good the forecasts/model guidance was 10 or 15 years ago. We used to have SWFEs in the late 2000s and early 2010s hammering DC like 4 days out and then mixing got into S NH by verification.
 

Back in the days when Ekster was trolling Nikolai 4 days out on how the GFS DC jackpot was a great sign for New England.
 

Once we got inside 84 hours, we started getting deadly at times (and all of us knew many of the model biases back then as they were more distinct)….but even then, we had plenty of crazy moves inside of 3 days. 

96 hrs was your moniker I believe.  I am 100% certain you were just as unsure with the 84 hr 2005 Euro as you are today. Say that knowing you are the best. What has improved by leaps and bounds is 5H heights but sensible weather 84 hrs nah not seeing it. 

[Great Snow 1717]

42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Forecast models haven't gotten worse, what has gotten worse over the last decade is forecasting skill and a large part of  that is due to all of these ridiculous products which have supplemented the actual forecast process. So many convective events in the Plains hyped up because of supercell composite and significant tornado crap, snow maps, etc. It's all run to snow maps, QPF output, etc. which more often than not will not produce an accurate assessment and then when they don't verify, its cry and blame models rather than taking personal responsibility. 

A VERY strong candidate for post of the year award...

[UnitedWx]

36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Listen you know me and I am 85% of the time Euro but all these claims of improvement to the degree as to reduce doubt , increase confidence is bullshit.

I have to agree with that,  at least for New England in general.  Euro used to lock on and not let go, and be right far more often than not. Seems ever since the upgrade, it hasn't had that solid performance. Maybe other parts of the globe it's better, but i just don't see it here

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

At some point when Dendrite stops trashing  Euro EPS AI then you know its on.

The 12z op had 0.20” to HFD and ORH. The AI has barely had precip anywhere in the region until recently. I’ve been okay with the EPS and AI ens. But I’d like to see more consistency from the ec ops before riding anything.

[moneypitmike]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Well that just blows chunks.

[Damage In Tolland]

Great snow game now on FOX. Northwestern vs Illinois 

[CoastalWx]

AI ensemble has members all over. Not sure how that’s skill inside 84 hrs.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Well that just blows chunks.

It won’t happen like that

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I have to agree with that,  at least for New England in general.  Euro used to lock on and not let go, and be right far more often than not. Seems ever since the upgrade, it hasn't had that solid performance. Maybe other parts of the globe it's better, but i just don't see it here

Completely correct. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AI ensemble has members all over. Not sure how that’s skill inside 84 hrs.

The mean has been pretty consistent, but yeah, this is a hell of a way to get there.

 

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think you all are overestimating how good the forecasts/model guidance was 10 or 15 years ago. We used to have SWFEs in the late 2000s and early 2010s hammering DC like 4 days out and then mixing got into S NH by verification.
 

Back in the days when Ekster was trolling Nikolai 4 days out on how the GFS DC jackpot was a great sign for New England.
 

Once we got inside 84 hours, we started getting deadly at times (and all of us knew many of the model biases back then as they were more distinct)….but even then, we had plenty of crazy moves inside of 3 days. 

Not to mention we’d remember the 6 days out of 365 days in a calendar year when the Euro showed more snow than other models and it was right.

But no one cared when its QPF forecast missed in early June.

A lot of cherry picking in memories rooted around snowfall events.

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

A VERY strong candidate for post of the year award...

There are a lot of candidates for posts of the year.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Not to mention we’d remember the 6 days out of 365 days in a calendar year when the Euro showed more snow than other models and it was right.

But no one cared when its QPF forecast missed in early June.

A lot of cherry picking in memories rooted around snowfall events.

Fair enough, understanding that many of us focus far more on winter weather 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I think some of you are forgetting that we called the Euro king for a reason, and it never caved or jumped. Only made small moves to reach consensus, now it bounces back and forth more than Kevin’s Seasons in Seasons. 

[H2Otown_WX]

56 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I think we get buried. 

OT but is the east side of Simsbury really low in elevation? I'm surprised you're < 200'

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Fair enough, understanding that many of us focus far more on winter weather 

All a model needs to do is nail a few winter events from 4 days out and it’s enshrined.

I also think the other models were worse or seemed worse, and they’ve caught up.  Running the Euro 4 times a day hasn’t helped.  We see twice as many solutions as we used to back then with the model.

The flip side is I can think of numerous events it was way too generous with QPF in snowfalls on the western and northern side.  What was that event where it was gung ho on 20-36” for NYC and even into NNE for days… only to get completely shafted… 2011?  Or Feb 2013?

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

All a model needs to do is nail a few winter events from 4 days out and it’s enshrined.

I also think the other models were worse or seemed worse, and they’ve caught up.  Running the Euro 4 times a day hasn’t helped.  We see twice as many solutions as we used to back then with the model.

This. The GFS was regularly a shredded POS well offshore right until 24-48hrs out and we never even worried about it.