First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[moneypitmike]

Verbatum, this from GYX reads like it would be an 8-hour storm.  I thought it was moving more slowly than that.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.

Tuesday

Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

Tuesday Night

Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

 

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big cluster converging toward the BM too...

Ugh.

[ORH_wxman]

Congrats PVD on 18z ICON

[George001]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ugh.

Where do you want the low to be? 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ugh.

Lots of posters will be disappointed if Stowe doesn't add onto their record or near-record early season snow pack with a favorable pattern for NNE out as far as the eye can see. 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

Where do you want the low to be? 

Ha it was in jest as a joke.

Personally, I want it over like metro-west of BOS, lol.

I feel like it’s my duty as a white walker north of the wall for a comment here and there… but in reality it is nice to see enthusiasm and hope again on the forum.

It feels a bit like the old days on here for the past 48 hours or so.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Where do you want the low to be? 

Tracking over PWM.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats PVD on 18z ICON

Looks good from my house 

[Lava Rock]

Verbatum, this from GYX reads like it would be an 8-hour storm.  I thought it was moving more slowly than that.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.
Tuesday
Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.   Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.  

Honestly, would be happy with 1-3" to whiten it up, but not getting invested in storms till xmas time

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Honestly, would be happy with 1-3" to whiten it up, but not getting invested in storms till xmas time

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Since a thread was started,  I'll be disappointed if the snowblower isn't needed

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Tracking over PWM.

Is that the track we want in Maine? Looks like we get brushed with a ok amount on the models.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Is that the track we want in Maine? Looks like we get brushed with a ok amount on the models.

No, lol, That's where PF likes it, We want it to track inside the BM.

[weatherwiz]

Looks like 18z gfs going to be quite amped...shocker. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The 18z gfs might be over more amped than 12z

[dryslot]

That's getting ugly.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

PF sitting back smiling, this is easily the most amped run yet, rains almost all of Ma into parts of Nh

[brooklynwx99]

GFS on an island… usually ends only one way

[wx2fish]

Scott and son at the Sandbar that run

[weatherwiz]

I doubt its coming in this amped. Not even going to have any serious thoughts on this until Sunday morning or early afternoon. 

[bristolri_wx]

18z GFS has been drinking.

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS on an island… usually ends only one way

You don't want to discount it as a possibility, but, with the accuracy of the GFS in our next of the woods recently and it not being part of the consensus guidance, I'm hesitant to believe that track as well.

[ma blizzard]

As much as I want to believe the GFS is too amped, it would really fit the tenor of the past 3 years 

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I doubt its coming in this amped. Not even going to have any serious thoughts on this until Sunday morning or early afternoon. 

It was farther south and east until hour 99 than the 12z run, then it became more amped than 12z from hr 102 forward.  My guess is GFS goes back SE at 00z run...

[Brewbeer]

22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Since a thread was started,  I'll be disappointed if the snowblower isn't needed

took mine out of the shed and greased/changed the oil.  in the garage now, since there's a chance 

 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

It was farther south and east until hour 99 than the 12z run, then it became more amped than 12z from hr 102 forward.  My guess is GFS goes back SE at 00z run...

My guess is this ends up being something flatter which would benefit most in the Ptype department but I don’t think you’d be looking at any beefy totals. Probably borderline warning criteria for some towns. I mean which is still great for early Dec…but you’ll see a lot of disappointed people in the totals because they didn’t live up to clown map expectations 

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

My guess is this ends up being something flatter which would benefit most in the Ptype department but I don’t think you’d be looking at any beefy totals. Probably borderline warning criteria for some towns. I mean which is still great for early Dec…but you’ll see a lot of disappointed people in the totals because they didn’t live up to clown map expectations 

Agreed.  Especially where I am it's not going to be beefy one way or the other unless you thread the needle.  However, any thing that helps with keeping it snow longer will help.  A flatter look means less rain for most.

[ORH_wxman]

One of these models is gonna be grossly off. 

[ORH_wxman]

Gfs is so fundamentally different in how it handles the cyclogenesis. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My guess is this ends up being something flatter which would benefit most in the Ptype department but I don’t think you’d be looking at any beefy totals. Probably borderline warning criteria for some towns. I mean which is still great for early Dec…but you’ll see a lot of disappointed people in the totals because they didn’t live up to clown map expectations 

Going to be tough getting big totals when your basically looking at a 9-12hr storm unless you get some heavy rates, Its moving right along.

[Spanks45]

The past few years has been what ever model gives me the least amount of snow will somehow end up being right in the end...So the battle within is, different year, same result or does this year finally buck the trend? I mean, can the GFS really be that correct? Sure, but if recent memory is correct, then it will stick with an amped solution until 48-72 hrs and will suddenly bounce to the rest of guidance...

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gfs is so fundamentally different in how it handles the cyclogenesis. 

it’s just way more consolidated with the vort as it moves through the Plains and Midwest