Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago WX]

10 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

why cant we get storms like this GFS fantasy storm

Could you imagine getting 28" and feeling screwed because 30 miles away got 4 feet? 

That one's a keeper though for parts of IL, IN, and OH. Can't recall a model run spit out something like that with one system.

[andyhb]

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

why cant we get storms like this GFS fantasy storm

Ok but seriously, what in the actual hell happened with that run?

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, Chicago WX said:

Could you imagine getting 28" and feeling screwed because 30 miles away got 4 feet? 

That one's a keeper though for parts of IL, IN, and OH. Can't recall a model run spit out something like that with one system.

I was going to post this simply because in all my 30 years of weenie fantasy model watching...this is a first.   By far.   That being said, even if the gfs has the right idea with a massive overrunning event at that range, the congrats goes to Chicago to Detroit because the gfs is infamously always too far south in the medium/lr.    Still, one to save for entertainment value.

[NoDoppler4TonySandz]

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

why cant we get storms like this GFS fantasy storm

Oh YES....please.... please... and yes, that side of 25 mph winds too

[sbnwx85]

Incredible run. Put it in the Hall of Fame.

While we obviously don't expect 40+" of snow, it's worth keeping an eye on if the signal for a massive storm is still there by the end of the week. Could be something special. 

[CheeselandSkies]

3 hours ago, andyhb said:

Ok but seriously, what in the actual hell happened with that run?

Looks like most of it comes from a wound up storm system that tracks from AR to the NC/SC border from FH246-270.

Verbatim would support some severe weather in LA/MS on the 23rd, too.

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

why cant we get storms like this GFS fantasy storm

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Incredible run. Put it in the Hall of Fame.

While we obviously don't expect 40+" of snow, it's worth keeping an eye on if the signal for a massive storm is still there by the end of the week. Could be something special. 

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

 

[wegoweather]

I can already hear the CBus people talking about how they got cheated out of 57 inches of snow.

[A-L-E-K]

And it's gone.gif classic

[CheeselandSkies]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

I should just go back to using the NCAR model site that was the first one I ever came across, still looks like it did in 2006 and the GFS only goes out to 192 hours.

[Baum]

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I should just go back to using the NCAR model site that was the first one I ever came across, still looks like it did in 2006 and the GFS only goes out to 192 hours.

WOW. Max Velocity. Indeed.

[A-L-E-K]

extended still p sleepy but rife with mood dusters

[Chicago WX]

Extended looks good to me. To varying degrees, op runs have shown an overrunning type set up somewhere in the region. Obviously the biblical 18z GFS isn't happening, but the EPS and GEFS have been flagging that period (around Jan 23-?) for something to move through. One piece, two pieces...who knows at this point. I mean its our best shot at something other than northern stream dusters. First shot all winter really. And it certainly looks cold in the medium/extended range as well. Seems like it may be a bookend winter. Fast start, then zzzzz, and top it off with a good finish.  

[buckeye]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

And it's gone.gif classic

I lost 52 inches of snow in 6 hours

[A-L-E-K]

would have been more noteworthy inside 240-200 hours, 258+ really deep fantasy range

[DocATL]

extended still p sleepy but rife with mood dusters

If dusters include freak shows like this morning, I’m down.

[A-L-E-K]

timing differences but decent consensus for a decent looking wave riding through next week, let's see if we can lock this one in, doesn't look like vaporware

[hawkeye_wx]

Models continue to show little to no snow sw of the great lakes region through the end of January.  Are the plains going to get any snow this winter?

[A-L-E-K]

typical for the dust bowl climo states

[cyclone77]

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models continue to show little to no snow sw of the great lakes region through the end of January.  Are the plains going to get any snow this winter?

yep, zzzzzz

[A-L-E-K]

24 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

yep, zzzzzz

We have some AA to AAA duster prospects, definitely been worse but I'm also itching for a big league event

[Chambana]

Been a few years since we’ve had a GHD sub storm. What number are we on? IV or V?

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, Chambana said:

Been a few years since we’ve had a GHD sub storm. What number are we on? IV or V?

i think we'll be on IV, whenever it happens...

I - Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011
II - Jan 31-Feb 2, 2015
III - Feb 1-3, 2022

[DocATL]

Magnificent March?

[A-L-E-K]

I've never had a 20 incher in March, the month just doesn't have the juice

[Malacka11]

Second half of next week looks like a fun stretch for whoever can stack waves

[McHenrySnow]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

I've never had a 20 incher in March, the month just doesn't have the juice

Biggest snowstorm I've personally encountered that did not involve lake effect/enhancement was 17" on March 4-5, 2015 in Kentucky. I just happened to be visiting family at the right time. March most definitely has the "juice" - but sun angle and temps coming together with the juice is what is more difficult to achieve. 

[WestMichigan]

The GFS has been turning out some beauties lately.  60"+ in Ohio and now a slightly less but still impressive amount in Ontario.