Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[King James]

Nice work. Caveat on the COOP "accuracy" for sure. Some sketchy measurements in past years. Regardless, this is definitely a November for the books around here, assuming this storm acts as expected. With that said, gonna narrow my range a bit and go 6-8" final call for here. General consensus QPF numbers in the 0.60-0.80" range, ratios pretty close to 10:1, etc etc. Going to be a fun day to work tomorrow.  

Already gave my call but I think we are going to be in the sweet spot back to back storms. 11.2 inches for MBY is my final final call. Enjoy the storm!

[Chicago WX]

1 minute ago, King James said:

Already gave my call but I think we are going to be in the sweet spot back to back storms. 11.2 inches for MBY is my final final call. Enjoy the storm!

Man, I hope you're right. What's crazy is you've got a good chance pull a 20" month (at least)...in November. Awesome start to the season.

[Baum]

3 hours ago, jlauderdal said:

Upping my 7.5 Downers Grove prediction to 9 just for Baum who is right down the road.   We got this Baum, 9 and a decent possibility of overachieving. Just have to watch the euro, its not giving up on the more northerly route of the low and Euro AI has the low a tick farther north than the Euro OP.  

Here’s hoping you’re spot on. I’ll be at Wannemakers in DG first thing this AM getting the Christmas garland. Off the roads tomorrow. 

[cyclone77]

Starting to look like 10+ is looking pretty likely now for the QC.  Models that seemed to be backing down to reality a few days ago miraculously reversed course.  It's always nice to see CAMs and global models both agreeing on big dog totals on every model cycle.

[jlauderdal]

Here’s hoping you’re spot on. I’ll be at Wannemakers in DG first thing this AM getting the Christmas garland. Off the roads tomorrow. 

I'm in Tampa on a layover, ORD this afternoon and then hunker down. We need Saturday afternoon to deliver an inch an hour to get us 9+. If we can get 3 by noon .5/hr for 6 hours we will be in good shape.

[A-L-E-K]

On 11/26/2025 at 4:44 AM, A-L-E-K said:

4.5 final call

Looking two or three inches low imby but not terrible, congrats to the qc and ia crew, lots of our regulars should jackpot

[TheNiño]

Going with 6 fully erect IMBY final call. Even 3in would bring me to a foot here before December. 

[Chambana]

21 hours ago, Chambana said:

4.6” final call. Chicagoland looks locked and loaded for a solid 6-9” event

Calling looking $

[Weather Mike]

59 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

1 hour ago, Baum said:

Here’s hoping you’re spot on. I’ll be at Wannemakers in DG first thing this AM getting the Christmas garland. Off the roads tomorrow. 

I'm in Tampa on a layover, ORD this afternoon and then hunker down. We need Saturday afternoon to deliver an inch an hour to get us 9+. If we can get 3 by noon .5/hr for 6 hours we will be in good shape.

Funny I am in Miami waiting to fly to ORD. Can’t wait for some snow on Saturday in Chitown. Good luck to everyone and today’s model runs ! 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

NWS feeling a lot more bullish than I am in Minneapolis. I think 1-2” is a reasonable call, they seem to think 2-5”. 
 

Either way, glad to see a deep freeze behind the snow. Get those lakes frozen already!

[hawkeye_wx]

The CAMs were already holding steady with the high-end snow totals and now the lower models are coming up.  This is looking like maybe a 10" floor for my area.

[A-L-E-K]

8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The CAMs were already holding steady with the high-end snow totals and now the lower models are coming up.  This is looking like maybe a 10" floor for my area.

This is your moment 

[Brian D]

Glad to see some good snowstorm action for you guys down there early in the season. Usually it's us N guys that see all the action this time of year, except for some LES events. 

[Radtechwxman]

I wish I was bit more north for this one. Still worried about mixing here. Definitely going to miss the jackpot zone but still could get a solid hit. But man it's been forever since we had double digits here. 

[A-L-E-K]

Gotta give props to the quality of this antecedent airmass, dry and cold surfaces will be a refreshing change of pace from watching white rain fall into puddles

[Sciascia]

Happy Black Friday to those that celebrate with their wallets!

Here’s just a brief run-down of Kuch maps from recent model runs: 12z HRRR, 12z 4K NAM, and 6z Euro.

[homedis]

Interesting signal on the HRRR for some lake enh in far SE WI and Lake County IL. A limiting factor of that would be 1:6-1:8 ratios with the warmer air.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Starting to look like 10+ is looking pretty likely now for the QC.  Models that seemed to be backing down to reality a few days ago miraculously reversed course.  It's always nice to see CAMs and global models both agreeing on big dog totals on every model cycle.

MLI will exceed its 2024-25 total in 2025-26 before December.

Thinking 4-6" here. Hoping the dryslot/potential end as rain in sunday morning isn't too bad.