Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[michsnowfreak]

3-6" seems like a good call for Detroit.

[Chambana]

4.6” final call. Chicagoland looks locked and loaded for a solid 6-9” event

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, AWMT30 said:

Solid start to the models today! A nice Chicago to Detroit sweeping Winter Storm with 6-10" 

Chicago saw under 20 last winter. I dont mind that they'll get more than us this storm. Regardless looks like a widespread advisory to warning criteria snowstorm. Thats on top of the early November 9-10 snowfall and cold as far as the eye can see...excellent start to winter!

[fluoronium]

I've never used the RRFS for snow before but it's interesting to see it hinting at thundersnow.

I have noticed that the lightning algorithm on the HRRR has been completely worthless for predicting thundersnow (or at least the algorithm CoD uses)

[cyclone77]

Can't recall any other warning criteria events here when the winds were from the southeast predominately.  Gonna be kind of strange lol.

[ChiTownSnow]

Seems like the higher end totals may depend o solely on instability and thunderstorm like convection that happens locally.  

[donsutherland1]

For reference:

The 33.5 cm snowfall at Toronto on November 30, 1940 is the biggest daily snowfall on record for November. The 10.0" for Milwaukee on November 30, 1940 is the second biggest daily snowfall on record for November.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro is stronger/sharper with the shortwave at 500 mb than the rest of the models.  I was expecting the 12z run to fade south and weaker just a bit, but it actually ticked farther north.

Here are the resulting snow maps for the south UK, middle GFS, and north Euro.

[Radtechwxman]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro is stronger/sharper with the shortwave at 500 mb than the rest of the models.  I was expecting the 12z run to fade south and weaker just a bit, but it actually ticked farther north.

Yeah it definitely is. I wouldn’t want it anymore north than that. Hugs that mixing line right against me. Oof. My biggest worry is the marginal temps and ratios during day Sat. If rates are high enough it will help mitigate it somewhat but I do anticipate some level of melting and compaction. Hoping that warm nose can stay south enough to avoid a changeover. But that sfc low does get pretty north. 

[ILSNOW]

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!!

[Baum]

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!!

I’ve decided to withhold my reply until Saturday evening 

[Chicago Storm]

Today’s trend has been to reverse yesterday’s trend.

Yesterday’s we saw guidance come in less phased, less amped and flatter with the main wave…thus, weaker, south and drier. Today’s trend reversed all of that.

[sbnwx85]

Could cash in on lake effect bonus Sunday. 12”+ in play. 

[cyclone77]

HRRR 18z is a beautiful sight to behold.  

[Baum]

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Today’s trend has been to reverse yesterday’s trend.

Yesterday’s we saw guidance come in less phased, less amped and flatter with the main wave…thus, weaker, south and drier. Today’s trend reversed all of that.

Hold.