Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[nvck]

 

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

00z NAM looking juiced 

[SchaumburgStormer]

9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

00z NAM looking juiced 

 

still snowing across N IL

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

still snowing across N IL

Custom mini screw hole for here.  Pass lol

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

still snowing across N IL

Wish those double digits in Iowa were more se looks like they may get in on waa snow more and a bit of wraparound. Also may have slightly lower temps and higher ratios there. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Riding the northern edge on the NAM at long range feels like definite miss south to me. 

[Kaner88]

coming back to this forum for another year, high on Kuchera maps & "weenie bands"

[RCNYILWX]

I'm off through the weekend so will get to experience this one from the weather enthusiast side. In all honestly, haven't looked at model data since my shift ended this morning lol. How are trends for Chicagoland?

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[ChiTownSnow]

4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm off through the weekend so will get to experience this one from the weather enthusiast side. In all honestly, haven't looked at model data since my shift ended this morning lol. How are trends for Chicagoland?

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12z Euro had us all drooling.  Only to have 18z back to reality.  Everything else in middle 

[Radtechwxman]

9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm off through the weekend so will get to experience this one from the weather enthusiast side. In all honestly, haven't looked at model data since my shift ended this morning lol. How are trends for Chicagoland?

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Looking pretty solid for you. I80 north definitely has highest chance of seeing warning criteria. Slightly lower temperatures and higher ratios. A bit further from warm nose pushing north. As low passes by could get some wraparound and lake effect with n to ne flow off Lake Michigan. South of I80 could see warning criteria as well but more south you get there could be more issues with temps/snow ratios and lesser totals. But this looks like a decent spread the wealth event. 

[nvck]

new gfs maybe seems slightly south w/ the surface low?

[ChiTownSnow]

2 minutes ago, nvck said:

new gfs maybe seems slightly south w/ the surface low?

And weaker/drier 

[nvck]

 

slightly lower totals across the board, vs the 18z

[Radtechwxman]

7 minutes ago, nvck said:

new gfs maybe seems slightly south w/ the surface low?

0z gfs seems to be wanting to speed up the system imo. Definitely moving out quicker than 18z and definitely faster than other models

4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

And weaker/drier 

It wasn't too drastically different but definitely nervous on that trend starting

[migratingwx]

Similar totals as the 18z run

 

[Kaner88]

48hr QPF for those more concerned about ratios

[snowman33]

Maybe?

[ILSNOW]

Chicago NWS thru 6pm Sat

[Baum]

4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Chicago NWS

Aggressive 

[Chicago916]

5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Chicago NWS

That doesn't cover the full storm

[cyclone77]

Feeling pretty confident about 5-7" here and the QC.  Seems like higher totals are drifting back toward reality as we get closer.

[ChiTownSnow]

5 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

That doesn't cover the full storm

Hmm.. yeah that's a bit odd.. covers majority of it tho.. per 00z GFS.   

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Feeling pretty confident about 5-7" here and the QC.  Seems like higher totals are drifting back toward reality as we get closer.

Yeah I think lower ratios and temps may keep snow totals in check. If we had colder air would be different story

[KeenerWx]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Hmm.. yeah that's a bit odd.. covers majority of it tho.. per 00z GFS.   

Probably 1-3” more to add depending on location. So generalized 6-10” across much of the CWA based on the map. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Hoping it trends back up