December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm not canceling winter but I'm coming to terms that it's definitely over for the next couple of weeks, at least. Losing weeks of prime climo is definitely a bummer. 

Prime climo is a few weeks away.

[nj2va]

25 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

South has stuck the fork in, we’ll see how long until the other sub forums do the same.

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Prime climo is a few weeks away.

Jan 15 to Feb 15 honestly looks like a decent period IMO

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

JI cancels on October 21st 

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

Usually if the pattern is bad in the south it's bad for us too. Same goes for Philadelphia.

[dailylurker]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Prime climo is a few weeks away.

The gfs looks better today. There's some decent cold shots. The euro on the other hand lol. Are those +50 degree departures in the Midwest for the next 10 days at least? What an impressive heatwave. Someone at our latitude is definitely going to see 70's if not 80's lol. F-it. I'm moving on and planning some extended hikes in the local mountains. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Usually if the pattern is bad in the south it's bad for us too. Same goes for Philadelphia.

And that translates into giving up on the rest of the winter...why?

[BristowWx]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And that translates into giving up on the rest of the winter...why?

Agree We’re not cancelling anything.  Been around too long to think anything is over before it’s over

[stormy]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

I have been scrolling to find a solid post to pin my hat to. This is better than most and also applies to Eric Webb.

[CAPE]

The period around NYE could end up cold and dry, but at least it looks cold, and there has been pretty persistent indications on guidance that there could be a storm during this timeframe. H5 looks favorable. Lets just wait and see.

 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The period around NYE could end up cold and dry, but at least it looks cold, and there has been pretty persistent indications on guidance that there could be a storm during this timeframe. H5 looks favorable. Lets just wait and see.

 

Don’t worry. A few in here will call your post fake news.  

[Solution Man]

On 12/20/2025 at 3:50 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Recency bias...the models just got it "wrong" a couple weeks ago, lol Remember all rhe warm-ups that were can-kicked from mid-November through last week?

Yes