December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Here’s the latest Untappd snow forecast model. Hop Saturated Snow for the win! 

Feel your game. I am baking the crap out of cookies and slamming Devils Backbone Danzig Porters. 8%ers sneak up on you. 

As far as weather goes the longer range stuff has me intrigued. Big ole Greenland block, monster 50/50 and a split flow. But who knows if its correct or not. 

 

 

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Feel your game. I am baking the crap out of cookies and slamming Devils Backbone Danzig Porters. 8%ers sneak up on you. 

As far as weather goes the longer range stuff has me intrigued. Big ole Greenland block, monster 50/50 and a split flow. But who knows if its correct or not. 

 

 

Let’s go with its correct and be happy for a minute. Enjoy the DB. Happy Holidays! 

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Webb caving

 

 

Did he even make it 12hrs?

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Did he even make it 12hrs?

I wish there’d be some accountability for these social media personality Mets that can post knee jerk, baseless claims on twitter or Facebook. At least he called himself out, respect that. Next time…probably don’t call it a complete dud when we’ve seen far worse shit the blinds patterns at range.

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I wish there’d be some accountability for these social media personality Mets that can post knee jerk, baseless claims on twitter or Facebook. At least he called himself out, respect that. Next time…probably don’t call it a complete dud when we’ve seen far worse shit the blinds patterns at range.

I just treat any Twitter personality as though they're trying to sell me a used car.  At the end of the day they're just whoring out for views, whatever it takes.  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, IronTy said:

I just treat any Twitter personality as though they're trying to sell me a used car.  At the end of the day they're just whoring out for views, whatever it takes.  

Well said  it worked, hey I’m first to admit I’m glad he’s looking dead wrong! Let’s start with a good pattern and hope it’s not just feet and feet of pattern lol

[Ji]

WB 18Z GFS

Looks like we can’t ever get 2 good trends in a row

[Weather Will]

Just now, Ji said:

Looks like we can’t ever get 2 good trends in a row

I think we go from torch to icy/ cold rain this storm with a more positive long range and call it a win...

[winter_warlock]

46 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Did he even make it 12hrs?

I think he likes the warm weather that's why his picture is a heat mizer lol

[IronTy]

16 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I think he likes the warm weather that's why his picture is a heat mizer lol

If him and JB ever shook hands it would be like a matter/antimatter annihilation.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 minutes ago, IronTy said:

If him and JB ever shook hands it would be like a matter/antimatter annihilation.  

[winter_warlock]

53 minutes ago, IronTy said:

If him and JB ever shook hands it would be like a matter/antimatter annihilation.  

World would end as we know it lol

[CAPE]

Latest Euro extended(weeklies) gets to a much more favorable h5 look sooner than the previous run- trough out west completely gone for mid Jan period, replaced by a negative EPO/followed by a neutral-transitioning to positive PNA and a more impressive -NAO.

Previous run-

[pazzo83]

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 1994 ice storms in Philly were great.

we had a nice 2' snowstorm in the Shenandoah Valley that March.

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 1994 ice storms in Philly were great.

They were "great" as ice storms go here as well. One(in Jan) was pure ZR- roads were an ice rink- and the other(early Feb I think) was a combo but mostly a sleet-fest. Lots of tree devastation.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 1994 ice storms in Philly were great.

The Jan one i remember it being 26 and just shy of moderate freezing rain for hours. Tree destruction everywhere 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The Jan one i remember it being 26 and just shy of moderate freezing rain for hour. Tree destruction everywhere 

Yeah mid 20s and pure freezing rain. I had to drive in that shit from college to home- ended up doing a 360 just a few miles from home and hit a parked car. Rare storm for here as we normally go to plain rain pretty quickly with a flow off the ocean in those setups. Surface HP to the N/NE was a beast.

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah mid 20s and pure freezing rain. I had to drive in that shit from college to home- ended up doing a 360 just a few miles from home and hit a parked car. Rare storm for here as we normally go to plain rain pretty quickly with a flow off the ocean in those setups. Surface HP to the N/NE was a beast.

I also remember us getting a clipper after the Jan ice storm, narrow band of snow across the dmv. 2 inches of dry fluffy snow on top of the skating rink. My dad tried driving up the hilly driveway, and he only made it halfway before sliding all the way back down. Wild times then

[Yeoman]

4 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

I wish there’d be some accountability for these social media personality Mets that can post knee jerk, baseless claims on twitter or Facebook. At least he called himself out, respect that. Next time…probably don’t call it a complete dud when we’ve seen far worse shit the blinds patterns at range.

Or you could use common sense to know a 1-2 month weather forecast is a joke to begin with.. as long as mindless weenies continue to click on it, who cares?

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I also remember us getting a clipper after the Jan ice storm, narrow band of snow across the dmv. 2 inches of dry fluffy snow on top of the skating rink. My dad tried driving up the hilly driveway, and he only made it halfway before sliding all the way back down. Wild times then

I remember that snow event vividly.  I had to get to the office and coming out of my subdivision was a slight hill and bend. My tires started slipping as I  approached the turn so I hit the brakes and the car just slid while I headed for a mailbox. I took my foot off the brake to get a better position on the brake and the tires got traction and the car turned, barely missing the mailbox. And that event was cold as he!! with temps during snow and that morning in the mid teens. It was so close to being an historic winter for coldcand snow but for the uncooperative mid levels thanks to the u/l lows passing too far to our NW.

[bncho]

That cold shot around New Year's Day has trended quite cold from the torch it was maybe four days ago. EPS averages 10-15F below average during this time frame for much of the East Coast.

 

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah mid 20s and pure freezing rain. I had to drive in that shit from college to home- ended up doing a 360 just a few miles from home and hit a parked car. Rare storm for here as we normally go to plain rain pretty quickly with a flow off the ocean in those setups. Surface HP to the N/NE was a beast.

Not one flake nor sleet pellet. Instant rain and 22F at the start

[bncho]

Jaws at the end of the 0z Euro. This doesn't tell me much other than the fact that January will be fun to track even in the first half, and BAM will likely be right about a major winter storm happening around their timeframe of Jan 4-8.

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, bncho said:

Jaws at the end of the 0z Euro. This doesn't tell me much other than the fact that January will be fun to track even in the first half, and BAM will likely be right about a major winter storm happening around their timeframe of Jan 4-8.

I was looking at the ensembles yesterday, and I agree the Jan 3-8 timeframe is one to watch. 

[Terpeast]

Just saw the euro weeklies this morning, basically a hold from yesterday. 

Starting to think our best timeframe for a coastal storm is the second week of January (more like Jan 5-12 ish). Nothing trackable yet, but something for us to watch, particularly precip anomalies across the Gulf South through our area to the NE along with ample cold air.

[pazzo83]

at this point just need some form of precipitation - finishing the year missing about a quarter of the normal annual precip here.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Just saw the euro weeklies this morning, basically a hold from yesterday. 

Starting to think our best timeframe for a coastal storm is the second week of January (more like Jan 5-12 ish). Nothing trackable yet, but something for us to watch, particularly precip anomalies across the Gulf South through our area to the NE along with ample cold air.

There are some subtle hints on the ens means for the first week or so of Jan. The first is possibly here-

 

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I was looking at the ensembles yesterday, and I agree the Jan 3-8 timeframe is one to watch. 

Right where I want it.  Looks like I should be safe from missing something from being down in this godforsaken state. 

[osfan24]

Sounds like a great time to celebrate the 30th anniversary of some storm……..