December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm not canceling winter but I'm coming to terms that it's definitely over for the next couple of weeks, at least. Losing weeks of prime climo is definitely a bummer. 

Prime climo is a few weeks away.

[nj2va]

25 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

South has stuck the fork in, we’ll see how long until the other sub forums do the same.

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Prime climo is a few weeks away.

Jan 15 to Feb 15 honestly looks like a decent period IMO

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

JI cancels on October 21st 

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

Usually if the pattern is bad in the south it's bad for us too. Same goes for Philadelphia.

[dailylurker]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Prime climo is a few weeks away.

The gfs looks better today. There's some decent cold shots. The euro on the other hand lol. Are those +50 degree departures in the Midwest for the next 10 days at least? What an impressive heatwave. Someone at our latitude is definitely going to see 70's if not 80's lol. F-it. I'm moving on and planning some extended hikes in the local mountains. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Usually if the pattern is bad in the south it's bad for us too. Same goes for Philadelphia.

And that translates into giving up on the rest of the winter...why?

[BristowWx]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And that translates into giving up on the rest of the winter...why?

Agree We’re not cancelling anything.  Been around too long to think anything is over before it’s over

[stormy]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

I have been scrolling to find a solid post to pin my hat to. This is better than most and also applies to Eric Webb.

[CAPE]

The period around NYE could end up cold and dry, but at least it looks cold, and there has been pretty persistent indications on guidance that there could be a storm during this timeframe. H5 looks favorable. Lets just wait and see.

 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The period around NYE could end up cold and dry, but at least it looks cold, and there has been pretty persistent indications on guidance that there could be a storm during this timeframe. H5 looks favorable. Lets just wait and see.

 

Don’t worry. A few in here will call your post fake news.  

[Solution Man]

On 12/20/2025 at 3:50 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Recency bias...the models just got it "wrong" a couple weeks ago, lol Remember all rhe warm-ups that were can-kicked from mid-November through last week?

Yes

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Don’t worry. A few in here will call your post fake news.  

Or fake blues 

[Weather Will]

EPS daily extended ticked colder this run with normal temps into second week of January and with below normal end of January into early February.  Control is much colder.  Definitely not a "winter is over" run.

[Ji]

EPS daily extended ticked colder this run with normal temps into second week of January and with below normal end of January into early February.  Control is much colder.  Definitely not a "winter is over" run.

Hey, Will post the 30 day precipitation anomaly map for January 1 through February 1

[cbmclean]

7 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Isn’t Webb living in New Mexico or somewhere like that? I can see why he would be frustrated wrt his backyard snowfall prospects (lack of STJ), but to paint that as “winter’s over” for the entire country/EC is a bit much. Some stretches are gonna suck, others may be decent. I still don’t think this is a one track winter. 

I don't think it has much to do with his location.  He has a semi-permanent feud with east coast snow weenies and he likes to savor their tears as they torch.  The problem is I have followed him off an on since 2023 and he seems to be extremely knowledgeable.  He dives "under the hood" into the mechanics of the synoptic scale of the atmosphere and doesn't just rip and read from the models.  In 2023-24 he was down on the canonical nino pattern appearing in late Jan/Feb, and he was correct.  Last year he was up on the possibilities for SE snow and he was right about that as well.

Like Bob says if he knew it all he'd be rich as an energy trader, but if he is making bold claims, I would look into his basis before dismissing him off hand.

[Weather Will]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

WB extended EPS 30 day anomalies for Jan.

[bncho]

EPS trend for 12/29 @ 12z. Look at that trend towards colder weather. And some are already cancelling winter.

[Terpeast]

36 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I don't think it has much to do with his location.  He has a semi-permanent feud with east coast snow weenies and he likes to savor their tears as they torch.  The problem is I have followed him off an on since 2023 and he seems to be extremely knowledgeable.  He dives "under the hood" into the mechanics of the synoptic scale of the atmosphere and doesn't just rip and read from the models.  In 2023-24 he was down on the canonical nino pattern appearing in late Jan/Feb, and he was correct.  Last year he was up on the possibilities for SE snow and he was right about that as well.

Like Bob says if he knew it all he'd be rich as an energy trader, but if he is making bold claims, I would look into his basis before dismissing him off hand.

He was calling for a TNH+ pattern with -EPO for the winter not too long ago, maybe a couple of weeks. I do follow him and he gives good background information under the hood, but the latest tweet of his lacked the usual substance and reasoning. 

[Kay]

30 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I don't think it has much to do with his location.  He has a semi-permanent feud with east coast snow weenies and he likes to savor their tears as they torch.  The problem is I have followed him off an on since 2023 and he seems to be extremely knowledgeable.  He dives "under the hood" into the mechanics of the synoptic scale of the atmosphere and doesn't just rip and read from the models.  In 2023-24 he was down on the canonical nino pattern appearing in late Jan/Feb, and he was correct.  Last year he was up on the possibilities for SE snow and he was right about that as well.

Like Bob says if he knew it all he'd be rich as an energy trader, but if he is making bold claims, I would look into his basis before dismissing him off hand.

He was among my wxtwitter follows for quite a while when I was on there and I agree with this assessment. I didn't know it was a thing, but he did sort of seem to relish crushing EC snow weenie dreams  Note, I am not commenting on his or anyone's specific thoughts on this winter.