December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[T. August]

Euro about the same as 12z. Just kind of torchy - limits what would have been a better hit.

[Eskimo Joe]

25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GFS Fantasy range Christmas Eve snow....well at least no torch this run!!!! I know this is supposed to be in the digital snow thread but I'm tired of the endless dusting snow maps.

I would call it a winter if this happened. 

[baltosquid]

The big thing about that euro run is that it did not throw the TPV piece way east like the GFS did. Not much of a change.

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

18z Euro is worse for most as its drier 

I was expecting disaster, it’s not that much different… boo!! Lol

[Benjamn3]

33 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GFS Fantasy range Christmas Eve snow....well at least no torch this run!!!! I know this is supposed to be in the digital snow thread but I'm tired of the endless dusting snow maps.

Let’s bring that bad boy south some. Lol love fantasy range snow. Let’s get a pool going for how many times Christmas Eve/day changes over the next couple weeks. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I was expecting disaster, it’s not that much different… boo!! Lol

Yea its noise, IMO.

[poolz1]

With such a narrow "win" zone it is going to be tough to please everyone.  I'll hug the 18z euro because it is the best run for NW zones so far.  Not going to jack out this way, just trying to get in on the action and have if look like winter.  

[WxUSAF]

So 18z euro is drier, warmer, about the same, or best yet?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

So 18z euro is drier, warmer, about the same, or best yet?

warmer but qpf nearly identical

[Darkstorm]

I would call it a winter if this happened. 

I’d call it something else consider us northern crew have had Lucy screw us over more then enough.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So 18z euro is drier, warmer, about the same, or best yet?

 

[ravensrule]

32 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

18z Euro is worse for most as its drier 

Looks just fine to me. 

[Weather Will]

Gosh folks, the big story is how bitterly cold the WB 18Z EURO is for Sunday afternoon....remember the years when we would go weeks without going below freezing?!!!!

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

lol, I thought it was going to be bad.  I'd take that in a heartbeat

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I was expecting disaster, it’s not that much different… boo!! Lol

Better for us. Instead of being in the 1" area just west of the 1.5" line, we're un the 2" area just shy by feet of the 2.5" line.

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro brings Barney in Sunday evening. Add a bit of snow and someone gets single digits I bet.

[JenkinsJinkies]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Gosh folks, the big story is how bitterly cold the WB 18Z EURO is for Sunday afternoon....remember the years when we would go weeks without going below freezing?!!!!

January 2017 was the longest freeze free period in any DC winter.

[jayyy]

12z gfs… 65-70 degrees Christmas Eve
18z gfs… 6-12+ storm for the MA and NE on Christmas Eve

Safe to say models have minimal clue how our pattern will unfold in 2 weeks

[jayyy]

1-3” possibility Sunday followed by a drop into the teens that night sounds great.

[LP08]

18z EPS a tick better.  The euro was very close to a better solution with the sw a bit more south and west.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 12/9/2025 at 8:13 AM, aldie 22 said:

I guess we are going to see Chuck posting alot more now

I'm actually pretty bullish on colder this Winter.. at least one of the better Winters in the last 10 years. The models made a huge shift to warm over the last few days though.. Polar Vortex in northern/NW Canada really pops the SE ridge here in the 2nd half of December. Here's a post I just made about it in the ENSO thread:

Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see. 

After the clippers the next few days, I don't really see any threats for snow until around Jan 1st. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

18z EPS a tick better.  The euro was very close to a better solution with the sw a bit more south and west.

We're this close to greatness.

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm actually pretty bullish on colder this Winter.. at least one of the better Winters in the last 10 years. The models made a huge shift to warm over the last few days though.. Polar Vortex in northern/NW Canada really pops the SE ridge here in the 2nd half of December. Here's a post I just made about it in the ENSO thread:

Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see. 

After the clippers the next few days, I don't really see any threats for snow until around Jan 1st. 

Wow that's actually impressive coming from you. You've always struck me as a person that hedges warmer.

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, jayyy said:

1-3” possibility Sunday followed by a drop into the teens that night sounds great.

That would be true deep winter stuff in December if it verifies.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're this close to greatness.

Is there any real possibility we manage to get that or is the window closing by 12z tomorrow to get an actual low pressure induced storm instead of our current reliance on favorable dynamics. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wow that's actually impressive coming from you. You've always struck me as a person that hedges warmer.

I love snow but I try to be objective. Last Winter is a pretty good analog for this one imo. But if we are colder in Jan/Feb, there is always a chance that we can do a bigger storm, but the STJ is just completely dead so far this Winter. Acting like a Moderate Nina right now. 

I also notice that you were leaning cold in the Fall after leaning warm the last few Winters.. not bad so far! 

[LP08]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Is there any real possibility we manage to get that or is the window closing by 12z tomorrow to get an actual low pressure induced storm instead of our current reliance on favorable dynamics. 

The window is pretty closed for anything more than we have seen already.  I think best case scenario is a broader precip shield with like .3-.4 qpf but the flow is so fast there is little margin for error and any step back in the orientation of that PV lobe (ie ICON) and we could be left with nothing.

[T. August]

12k NAM is not gonna cut it. The low pops over Baltimore. Would be great for New England.

[bncho]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're this close to greatness.

what would you say is "greatness"? 3-5?

[Chris78]

Icon says go f your self to anyone north of DC

Sound familiar?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Icon says go f your self to anyone north of DC

Sound familiar?

Still seemed like an improvement from 18z though, didn't it?