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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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8 minutes ago, jayyy said:


For sure. Models seem pretty lost on how to handle everything in such a fast flow, especially given how weak all of these waves are. Guess we’ll have to keep expectations at nothing and be surprised if we get more

Fast flow always seems to confuse the models for some reason (probably just not advanced enough yet).

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Fast flow always seems to confuse the models for some reason (probably just not advanced enough yet).

The Friday system is moisture starved and the Sunday one is basically a cold front with most of the energy further north: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025120918&fh=114

I guess we can find a way into a light snow event from both systems, but the real snow producers are when we get some southern stream influence which has been really hard to come by in these neck of the woods.

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35 minutes ago, bncho said:

The weekend is too far north for most except maybe TSSN and mitchnick but the 18z Euro has Friday. A general coating for the area.

Screenshot 2025-12-09 at 6.34.49 PM.png

More than a coating out here!  Hope it juices up more for the metros though and/or you all get a decent hit Sunday.

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By the end of the Gefs 18z run (Christmas Day), the ridge across the country has been squashed far enough south to result in normal 850 temps and BN surface temps. Coincidentally, just like the Cansips was showing for the month of January I mentioned earlier today in this thread.

500h_anom-mean.conus (4).png

850t_anom-mean.conus (3).png

sfct_anom-p105090-imp.conus (4).png

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

By the end of the Gefs 18z run (Christmas Day), the ridge across the country has been squashed far enough south to result in normal 850 temps and BN surface temps. Coincidentally, just like the Cansips was showing for the month of January I mentioned earlier today in this thread.

500h_anom-mean.conus (4).png

850t_anom-mean.conus (3).png

sfct_anom-p105090-imp.conus (4).png

Goes with the pattern of late where LR warmth is muted.

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