December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Last Friday's storm almost disappeared for DC-north within 36 hours?  So I don't expect much consistency on a weak vort in fast flow until like 0z Thursday.

Voice of reason

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

For sure. Models seem pretty lost on how to handle everything in such a fast flow, especially given how weak all of these waves are. Guess we’ll have to keep expectations at nothing and be surprised if we get more

Fast flow always seems to confuse the models for some reason (probably just not advanced enough yet).

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Funny enough though, the AIFS hates Friday and likes Sunday better.

That model is horrible!

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Voice of reason

Or insanity

[jayyy]

Fast flow always seems to confuse the models for some reason (probably just not advanced enough yet).

A lot of moving parts to try to resolve in a given window. Makes sense I suppose

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I have watched a many a snowstorm get chewed up by mountains lol

Allegheny plateau is to winter storms as Hispaniola is to hurricanes.  

[CAPE]

I think I like Sunday for a 1-3 type deal. Cold HP moving in from the NW and a decent shortwave that might dig a bit more. We shall see.

[bncho]

The weekend is too far north for most except maybe TSSN and mitchnick but the 18z Euro has Friday. A general coating for the area.

[nj2va]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think I like Sunday for a 1-3 type deal. Cold HP moving in from the NW and a decent shortwave that might dig a bit more. We shall see.

The CAPE storm

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Fast flow always seems to confuse the models for some reason (probably just not advanced enough yet).

The Friday system is moisture starved and the Sunday one is basically a cold front with most of the energy further north: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025120918&fh=114

I guess we can find a way into a light snow event from both systems, but the real snow producers are when we get some southern stream influence which has been really hard to come by in these neck of the woods.