December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IronTy]

36 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon hoped on board with Friday/Saturday 

Toss this, not possible.  I hear it only snows in the South anymore.  

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hope it keeps stepping 

[Porsche]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS likes Sunday for a northern stream snow event for us.

[baltosquid]

Okay well the GFS has countered with its own subsequent event… I want both

[mitchnick]

Just now, Porsche said:

Not saying it will happen, but with this pattern I've been waiting for something like rlthis.

[Heisy]

Not saying it will happen, but with this pattern I've been waiting for something like rlthis.

Gfs completely flipped towards 6z euro Ai solution at h5. Think this is legit. Problem is the track could be too far N. Need to see it dig as far S as possible and see ridge keep improving


.

[Ji]

28 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gfs completely flipped towards 6z euro Ai solution at h5. Think this is legit. Problem is the track could be too far N. Need to see it dig as far S as possible and see ridge keep improving


.

its crazy how we cant get any model agree.

GFS hates the clipper but Euro AI, Euro and Icon seem to like it

then the 14th..GFS and AI like it but euro and euro ensembles hate it.

embid is cooked lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Canada also took a step towards the euro. Like the gfs still isn't quite there but had less confluence this run.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

its crazy how we cant get any model agree.

GFS hates the clipper but Euro AI, Euro and Icon seem to like it

then the 14th..GFS and AI like it but euro and euro ensembles hate it.

embid is cooked lol

Ukmet says no thanks to Friday and Sunday flizzard 

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Canada also took a step towards the euro. Like the gfs still isn't there but had less confluence this run.

Canadian also has a 14th storm but it's too warm for most in this forum

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet says no thanks to Friday and Sunday flizzard 

Did it have it on the 0z run?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did it have it on the 0z run?

Nothing on 0z either 

[mitchnick]

Loving the overrunning near end of Gfs run. 

[batmanbrad]

gotta love how the Canadian sticks its (middle) finger of snow-hole right through our region...

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Loving the overrunning near end of Gfs run. 

yeah, you and @TSSN+ would like this

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

yeah, you and @TSSN+ should like this

At hour 330? No that doesn’t get me excited. 

[TSSN+]

Ok euro show some signs of life here and either show the Friday hit or the Sunday hit FFS. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

At hour 330? No that doesn’t get me excited. 

sorry--poorly worded on my end. I meant to say that you would like it if it happened verbatim, but obviously its the GFS two weeks out lol. 

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

At hour 330? No that doesn’t get me excited. 

It takes a lot to get you excited. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

It takes a lot to get you excited. 

Nah just a system not in La La land. 

[87storms]

13 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

gotta love how the Canadian sticks its (middle) finger of snow-hole right through our region...

Luckily for the snow starved region, the Wizards winning percentage is probably higher than the CMC at this range.

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Nah just a system not in La La land. 

It peaked my interest because it's similar to the recent Cfs2 and Cansips forecasts with a boundary just to our south with precip potential. 

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS is a general 3-5” for folks not getting snow today for the Sunday window 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro AI closes the DC to NYC snow hole before Christmas, and ensures many of us are at 100% of December snowfall climo. Yes please.

[Bob Chill]

2 fantasy gfs runs in a row dropping the blocking hammer after a brief zonal relax. Fits the personality of the last 6 weeks and makes sense to me. Might be too quick or a total fantasy but my gut says some version of this is coming back before 2026

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

2 fantasy gfs runs in a row dropping the blocking hammer after a brief zonal relax. Fits the personality of the last 6 weeks and makes sense to me. Might be too quick or a total fantasy but my gut says some version of this is coming back before 2026

MERRY CHRISTMAS CHARLIE BROWN!

[batmanbrad]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

MERRY CHRISTMAS CHARLIE BROWN!

But gotta remember that Lucy will always pull back the football...

[LP08]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

2 fantasy gfs runs in a row dropping the blocking hammer after a brief zonal relax. Fits the personality of the last 6 weeks and makes sense to me. Might be too quick or a total fantasy but my gut says some version of this is coming back before 2026

Totally un-scientific but this year, with the amount of cold built up in Canada (SE especially), is just totally different than years past.  I remember we would get good tracks with Highs in the right spots but it would be 31 degrees in Toronto and would do us no good.  I'd be willing to go out on a limb and say we get a region wide "good" one this year.  

[T. August]

12z euro a dud for Friday. Tragic