December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Step in the right direction

Congrats Smith Mountain Lake 

[stormtracker]

Bob Chill Crusher

[stormtracker]

Kinda comical.  But I'm even more intrigued

[bncho]

Congrats, Richmond!

[Chris78]

I'll post this here since it seems we're covering all threats in this thread.

I'd take chances heights end up higher in SE Canada than what's being shown 6 days out

[Solution Man]

Crush job central and eastern NC

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Congrats Smith Mountain Lake 

I mean its an obvious show to what happened if you look towards new England between the 0z and old 12z run. On our 0z run we just have a wall of confluence over New England which obviously is not gonna help our case in getting to move the storm north

12z for comparison has that same confluence just a causal couple hundred miles to the North (and even that suppresses the storm a bit too far south for some in our area). The other things that may help us is the confluence moving out of the area fast enough to not matter as 0z seems to have sped it up. 

[Chris78]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Crush job central and eastern NC

Chase to the outer banks? 

[mitchnick]

It's the Gfs. It'll be different in 6 hrs

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I'll post this here since it seems we're coming all threats in this thread.

I'd take chances heights end up higher in SE Canada than what's being shown 6 days out

Yeah, I'd rather have this at this point than nothing at all.   If it played out like that, oof

[mitchnick]

Gem might have a better shot at round 2.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, snow down to Raleigh

Obviously 6 days away and not the final solution but just seeing it...it's irritating that places to the south have seen a 6" snowfall more recently than we in Baltimore have. It's been an insane run of bad luck and we are so due to finally have one of these waves get far enough north.

[stormtracker]

I've been posting in the wrong damn thread this whole time.  I moved my posts here.  I'm blaming this Miller High Life beer.  It is the champagne of beers after all.

Don't you fucking judge me...it was all that was in the fridge...sis left that shit here.

[cbmclean]

9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Crush job central and eastern NC

I'll let you guys know how it turns out.  

[Kevin Reilly]

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'll post this here since it seems we're covering all threats in this thread.

I'd take chances heights end up higher in SE Canada than what's being shown 6 days out

wow look at that we actually have a cold high up north I am intrigued now / cold air daming too been a while since we have seen the wedge!

[stormtracker]

Euro certainly won't be GFS like.  Flatter at H5

[stormtracker]

Yeah, dud on the Euro

[CAPE]

We got pieces in place on the ens run. Why sweat the run to run details on the op runs at this range- its literally going to change every run. Just no way to know how the NS vorticity will interact- but we have some digging energy taking the southern route to work with.

[CAPE]

End of next week also looks intriguing at h5 but as it looks now on the ens mean we would need a piece of NS energy to dig further south to get us a little storm.

[WxUSAF]

Another potential warm up cancelled?

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Another potential warm up cancelled?

 

I'd be careful in cancelling any warmup because both ensembles try (operational word, "try") to send a trough into the western US giving us a bootleg -PNA. But any warmup appears to be only temporary. Maybe a week or so, or even a few days. When I play out the roll forwards from 11-15 to 6-10, that western trough retrogrades NW and instead pops up a flat ridge there instead, allowing cold air to move SE across the CONUS.

For example, comparing 360 hr from Nov 26 against 192 hr from today's EPS run, you can see what I'm getting at.

Old run (11/26):

 

New run (today):

 

 

[jayyy]

I'd be careful in cancelling any warmup because both ensembles try (operational word, "try") to send a trough into the western US giving us a bootleg -PNA. But any warmup appears to be only temporary. Maybe a week or so, or even a few days. When I play out the roll forwards from 11-15 to 6-10, that western trough retrogrades NW and instead pops up a flat ridge there instead, allowing cold air to move SE across the CONUS.
For example, comparing 360 hr from Nov 26 against 192 hr from today's EPS run, you can see what I'm getting at.
Old run (11/26):

 
New run (today):

 
 

Just in time for the 12/10-12/11 snowstorm threat. Lets reel it in

[yoda]

12z NAM has snow breaking out in KS at 84

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM has snow breaking out in KS at 84

Man K street in D.C is where all the action happens

[Ji]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

End of next week also looks intriguing at h5 but as it looks now on the ens mean we would need a piece of NS energy to dig further south to get us a little storm.

the 24 hour precip thing on the eps increased pretty good last night for that window

[Ji]

31 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Man K street in D.C is where all the action happens

still? Isnt that like 1987?

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[stormtracker]

So far, GFS looks a bit flatter out front vs 6z.

[stormtracker]

Doesn't seem like this is gonna be it.  Monday might have been a mirage.

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, GFS looks a bit flatter out front vs 6z.

what the hell are you tracking again?