December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

 The models make as much sense as the Ravens play calling lol

[jayyy]

If the WB 12Z Euro comes anywhere near verifying, the metro area can have the next two storms;  

Where do I sign up for my 2 feet lol

[TSSN+]

18z gfs deciding to take the low into wv and warm af. It’s on its own island right now. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

18z gfs deciding to take the low into wv and warm af. It’s on its own island right now. 

Yep

[TSSN+]

All other models shift south, gfs shifts to rain even for most of Pa lol

[Scraff]

30 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Where do I sign up for my 2 feet lol

If Frederick gets 21 and I get 4, I might go old school Ji in here.  

[WVclimo]

12Z Euro had the low scooting off the coast at Myrtle Beach.  GFS keeps parking a 998 over Nanticoke, MD.

Maybe tomorrow we can get a better idea about Tuesday.

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

18z gfs deciding to take the low into wv and warm af. It’s on its own island right now. 

Unhappy hour am I right!?

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

12Z Euro had the low scooting off the coast at Myrtle Beach.  GFS keeps parking a 998 over Nanticoke, MD.

Maybe tomorrow we can get a better idea about Tuesday.

With the volatility of guidance right now I think we’ll have a good idea about what happens after it happens

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

All other models shift south, gfs shifts to rain even for most of Pa lol

Terpeast probably was worried he was going to have to eat his shoe so he's happy that this run of the gfs is the final solution 

[TSSN+]

Meanwhile 

 

[clskinsfan]

47 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

18z gfs deciding to take the low into wv and warm af. It’s on its own island right now. 

Yeah. That would be game over for everyone. Is what it is. 

[87storms]

Decided to bike in this nonsense and was treated to a light flurry while I was pumping air in my tires. This might be the year.

Edit: Was supposed to go in Obs.

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Meanwhile 

 

Looks like serious taint if I am being honest. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

44 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

All other models shift south, gfs shifts to rain even for most of Pa lol

Will this remain the odd one out or will all the other models cave to this over the next 40 hours?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

If Frederick gets 21 and I get 4, I might go old school Ji in here.  

By "Old School" do you mean 8 months ago?

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. That would be game over for everyone. Is what it is. 

A fundamental problem that has been pretty persistent on all model simulations is HP to the north exiting stage right as the storm approaches. That's complete death for snow chances for lower elevations/coastal plain at our latitude esp in early Dec. Places well inland and further north should see some frozen initially depending on the amplitude of the shortwave trough and exact track of the surface low.

[clskinsfan]

Euro was pretty bad last year if we are being honest. This will be the first time this season we get to do some model comparisons. My WAG is we get a small thump to slop. More North and west obviously. When all else fails just go with climo. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

HP to the north exiting stage right as the storm approaches. That's complete death for snow

Now it is. Wont be in 6 weeks. I dont hate a HP off of the NE when the ocean is 38 degrees. Out here at least. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Now it is. Wont be in 6 weeks. I dont hate a HP off of the NE when the ocean is 38 degrees. Out here at least. 

Agreed. Even 2-3 weeks later, a carbon copy of this system will give most of us some snow down to the bay.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Now it is. Wont be in 6 weeks. I dont hate a HP off of the NE when the ocean is 38 degrees. Out here at least. 

Yeah well that's what I said lol, and specifically that this time of year that setup is going to be rain for the coastal plain probably every time. Inland where you are, different story. I would expect precip to at least start as snow out there unless HH GFS scenario verifies. Probably snow/mix quickly to rain in your yard in that case.

[mitchnick]

18z Euro went weak pos, but further south a touch.

[Kevin Reilly]

45 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A fundamental problem that has been pretty persistent on all model simulations is HP to the north exiting stage right as the storm approaches. That's complete death for snow chances for lower elevations/coastal plain at our latitude esp in early Dec. Places well inland and further north should see some frozen initially depending on the amplitude of the shortwave trough and exact track of the surface low.

This idea of the cold not being locked in and the high moving east was the theme of the winter last few years so nothing has really changed for this year yet outside of below normal temperatures right now. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z ensembles for early next week.

[simbasad2]

1 minute ago, simbasad2 said:

Maybe I sound weenie but I'll say it: When the Euro and GFS disagree on a storm like this, 9 times out of 10 the Euro will end up being correct

Gonna put this here too.. The uber northwest all rain solution just seems unlikely to me

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

18z Euro went weak pos, but further south a touch.

Man these models are just hilarious 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Man these models are just hilarious 

Typical for 4 days out.