December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, WVclimo said:

06Z GFS looks pretty slick out this way Tuesday morning. 0.75” FZRA.  A lot of it with temps 29-30°

 

Dont sleep on that little burst tomorrow night out this way. 

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, stormy said:

100% correct. 

Possible, but the 12-2 system has the deck stacked against it. 

No 50-50 low,  no Lakes to New England H.P. as a cold air source.

And of course, our long time drought pattern that no one fully understands is again an aggravating factor.  The GFS dropped the QPF from 1.48" for Augusta at 06  11-27 to .60" at 06  11-28.  I don't have enough fingers to count how many times this has happened during the past 4 months.   

No need to look at a whole bunch of other factors.  With that high severely misplaced, we are in trouble 

[TSSN+]

Euro is a solid hit for new crew 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro appears to be advisory level snow west of US 15?

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro appears to be advisory level snow west of US 15?

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

 

Sold

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Sold

Can we please reel this in? Maybe by tomorrow I’ll start to believe it a little. Maybe.. 

[NorthArlington101]

For posterity - snows on the front and backend.  
 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO also has a big storm wayyy out there Dec. 10 or so. 

[WxUSAF]

Ooof. Need 5-10 miles please lol

[Ji]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Ooof. Need 5-10 miles please lol

it dosent even change over rain like 30 feet from my house

[mitchnick]

Kuchera for better or worse.

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO also has a big storm wayyy out there Dec. 10 or so. 

It’s soooo close for DC. Still wicked - 28 and ice. 10” if you don’t go too far NW. All I care about for now is more to track for the next 10 days. 

[Scraff]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ooof. Need 5-10 miles please lol

We can reel this down to us. Plenty of time to manifest it. 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s soooo close for DC. Still wicked - 28 and ice. 10” if you don’t go too far NW. All I care about for now is more to track for the next 10 days. 

If the WB 12Z Euro comes anywhere near verifying, the metro area can have the next two storms;  

[TSSN+]

Ya I’d take that euro run and be happy if that was it for winter up here haha. 

[87storms]

We went from a sunny forecast here today (which I figured would be wrong since Frederick is cloudy at least 60% of the time) to scattered flurries.  I trust Tuesday's forecast like I trust DC sports.

[Weather Will]

Back to the storm for next week.  Latest EURO EPS and AI ensemble.

[stormy]

48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

No need to look at a whole bunch of other factors.  With that high severely misplaced, we are in trouble 

That eastward "severely misplaced" translating HP as you say, would not be misplaced with a 50/50 LP.

For decades the 50/50 low has been a gold standard for a major winter storm because it will lock the cold air in by blocking eastward translation of western New England HP.

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

If the WB 12Z Euro comes anywhere near verifying, the metro area can have the next two storms;  

Looks like my days posting in this forum will be over if that comes close to verifying.

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Sold

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO also has a big storm wayyy out there Dec. 10 or so. 

12z Euro Ens has a favorable h5 look with hints of some energy taking the southern route. Prior to that it looks NS dominant but for this window maybe we can get a wave ejecting from the SW to slide underneath.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Back to the storm for next week.  Latest EURO EPS and AI ensemble.

People keep telling me the AIFS ensemble is great, but those snow totals have been very suspect.  

[Ji]

Looks like my days posting in this forum will be over if that comes close to verifying.

Please lord verify

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Please lord verify

16.6 for you 23.8 for me 

[Solution Man]

Happy Hour coming, what’s your beverage today?

[soadforecasterx]

Any chance the NAO going negative right in time for the Dec 2nd storm helps out any?

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Any chance the NAO going negative right in time for the Dec 2nd storm helps out any?

Yes it can, storms can deepen more, perhaps more cold air to work with. Storm track is still key

[psuhoffman]

On 11/27/2025 at 7:54 AM, WxUSAF said:

Well based on those stats that @psuhoffmanshared last year, all of us well south of the M-D line should be happy if you get snow while we shovel cold rain because it means good things for the rest of the winter 

Yes it’s better if it snows before mid December in our northern and colder regions but it’s even better if the storm hits everyone. I know it was in jest. 

[TSSN+]

Icon south again basically in line with euro now.