December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[simbasad2]

9 hours ago, Jebman said:

Look guys, this post is not about the modeling BUT this IS the December Medium Long Range Discussion Thread. That's fine. I'm down with it. Let's do this.

But, anyone take a look at the calendar lately?

Its still November 23.

Just sayin.

Also an emphasis on the name, "December LONG RANGE Discussion." A LOT can still change because we are in the LONG RANGE!! Especially when the pattern is so volatile and uncertain. People need to stop canceling winter so quickly

[WxUSAF]

58 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hell the 6Z GFS even has a December 5th reprise! 

WINTER’S BACK ON THE MENU BOYS

[Terpeast]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WINTER’S BACK ON THE MENU BOYS

And so is the tropics. Same run tries to brew a hurricane in the Caribbean in fantasy range.

[Chris78]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WINTER’S BACK ON THE MENU BOYS

Oh good. I thought winter was canceled. 

[Pityflakes]

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WINTER’S BACK ON THE MENU BOYS

Came in here for this.  Haven't been following each run and assume it hasn't been consistent, but interesting and not crazy evolution as depicted.  Cross-polar flow immediately before, southern stream system (from the trop pacific?!) transversing the lower 48 and with mb digging behind?

[TSG]

a full cancel/grief/uncancel cycle before Thanksgiving. Yall have been practicing! This place is in late season form!

[Daniel Boone]

56 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And so is the tropics. Same run tries to brew a hurricane in the Caribbean in fantasy range.

All we need is an Arctic Front for it to hookup with and run to the Benchmark 

[Solution Man]

@stormtracker,practice starts next Monday 

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

All we need is an Arctic Front for it to hookup with and run to the Benchmark 

That's the dream ain't it?

[yoda]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

WINTER’S BACK ON THE MENU BOYS

Can't I have a piece of that negative NAO?  La Nina doesn't need that

[bncho]

December 3 FOLKS to rain on the GFS

[batmanbrad]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hell the 6Z GFS even has a December 5th reprise! 

and now the 12Z GooFus has backed that up to 12/3!

 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, batmanbrad said:

and now the 12Z GooFus has backed that up to 12/3!

 

WINTER IS TRULY BACK BABY!

[bncho]

lol

[WEATHER53]

12 hours ago, Albedoman said:

I usually do not post in this forum but I feel for you guys too. AS I said a few days ago in the Philly forum:

 

Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus  snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs  but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area..  Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event  and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle.

The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck.  If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast.  The lows  south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time  as it  appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too.  The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us  this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks

I basically want a 2-4 in  long duration three day rain event asap  to get the trees feet wet before the ground freezes and to get runoff back into the soon to be dry  streams. Trout fishing and landscaping  this spring will be severely hampered too if you do not get some significant rains in the next 2-3 weeks.  When LCA declares a drought watch folks,its pretty serious. I have USGS gauging stations in my backyard for the Little Lehigh and if this stream dries up, the businesses  will be greatly affected too throughout PA 

 

 

 

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Exactly

Our forecasting system is broken but many cling to it quite vociferously.

Some  can navigate impressively getting stations installed on public and private lands, they have talent and contacts and expert execution. I wish they would apply that talent to NOAA and NWS and bring about change.  I’ve offered suggestions and not just complaints.  But I’m a minority voice in that 

[IronTy]

42 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

and now the 12Z GooFus has backed that up to 12/3!

 

SoMD would be sweating the rain/snow line for the whole event.  That's what I want to see, the big ones are always a stressful event down here.  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

SoMD would be sweating the rain/snow line for the whole event.  That's what I want to see, the big ones are always a stressful event down here.  

The primary drives up into Pittsburgh and everyone flips. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

That's the dream ain't it?

Like the great MLK once said, I had a dream (just mine was dirty). 

[soadforecasterx]

CMC has storm as well. 

[bncho]

12z Euro has a Dec 5-6 coating

[bncho]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

lol

if I could react to my own posts, I would react with a weenie as well 

[MillvilleWx]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

WINTER’S BACK ON THE MENU BOYS

It feels good to be back 

I'm ready to be hurt again!! 

[WxUSAF]

12z op runs all have wintry precip in our area or close. Phew! So glad winter is uncancelled again!

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It feels good to be back 

I'm ready to be hurt again!! 

Don’t worry it will be 86’d here soon. 

[aldie 22]

You guys are dumb

[bncho]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z op runs all have wintry precip in our area or close. Phew! So glad winter is uncancelled again!

they all happen around December 5 as well, so it has to happen! 

[Scraff]

Happy hour will be rockin’ today! Cheers to canceling / uncanceling winter on 11/24.

[bncho]

this place will be a mess on 11/25...