December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[MJO812]

Big storm at the end of this month .  Patience is key.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Big storm at the end of this month .  Patience is key.

I’m sick of that thing too…the MJO can go piss off.  

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big storm at the end of this month .  Patience is key.

How many posts of Mjo, JB, and Steve D will it take for you to realize it’s still bare there?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

How many posts of Mjo, JB, and Steve D will it take for you to realize it’s still bare there?

Lol…well In Anthony’s post, he does say patience is what’s needed.  But the MJO as we’ve been told is not a driver, as many were led to believe, but only an enhancer that constructively or destructively interferes.  

[Snowcrazed71]

I do get the frustration ( and I used to get myself twisted when things kept being pushed out further and further ). I look at it this way, we're not in a bad pattern. It could be a lot worse. Things are going to happen the way they happen. We also know that things could just pop up out of nowhere as well. But I feel everyone's pain. I guess we're all a glutton for punishment..lol

[WinterWolf]

Yes, it’s a cold look, and there will be opportunities as Will said.  We’ve had/seen way worse. So I’m willing to give the pattern some time mature, and see if we can capitalize on something. 

[rclab]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big storm at the end of this month .  Patience is key.

 

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m sick of that thing too…the MJO can go piss off.  

 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How many posts of Mjo, JB, and Steve D will it take for you to realize it’s still bare there?

 

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…well In Anthony’s post, he does say patience is what’s needed.  But the MJO as we’ve been told is not a driver, as many were led to believe, but only an enhancer that constructively or destructively interferes.  

Looking at my bare oak leaf buried coastal plain postage stamp I can, with appropriate word substitutions still hope. As akways …..

 

[WinterWolf]

Light soft snow falling…looks nice. 

[CoastalWx]

Listening to Christmas songs…I wonder if we had the background warming 80 years ago, would there be so much references to snow? 

[WinterWolf]

Minus the last few years …we’ve had a very snowy century so far…so I’d answer yes. 

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Minus the last few years …we’ve had a very snowy century so far…so I’d answer yes. 

We had some great years in past 25 years, but big picture is a general decline in snow cover over North America since the 50s. Locally, 2005 and 2015 were epic. I will take one of those years despite the long term trend.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

We had some great years in past 25 years, but big picture is a general decline in snow cover over North America since the 50s. Locally, 2005 and 2015 were epic. I will take one of those years despite the long term trend.

I don’t know about that…we’ve had a lot of snow the last 30 years.  But that is a discussion for another thread.  
 

Hoping to cash in on something over the next few weeks. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

For Iseesnow.

 

That comes from a NORLUN set up, btw - 

I thought it subtly ironic that there's been some hints of that in the nearer terms as others sniffed it out.  But there, out in the 360-ish time frame, the GFS' 06z has a whopper signal really.  IVT with deep heights over head is clear indication for cold convection instability along an axis with convergence underneath.  And it's stationary for like 12 hours too.  

But ... it's also 360-ish hours out in time.  It won't be there at all ( most likely ) on this next 12z run.   LOL.  we'll see

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Listening to Christmas songs…I wonder if we had the background warming 80 years ago, would there be so much references to snow? 

Chestnuts blighted, and catching fire
Jack shit amounts of snow
Yore-like snow maps, being sent by a weenie
And folks dressed up like Key Largo

Everybody knows, some toucans and forsythia
Helps to make the season right
Weenie cops, obsessed with MJO
Will find it hard to sleep tonight

They know the Grinch storm, is on its way
It’s melting lots of ice and snowmen in just a day
And every mother plays, John Mayer on a drive
As the temp and dewpoint, both hit fifty-five

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Big storm at the end of this month .  Patience is key.

That bold statement of yours, and the chart just beneath it ... are utterly mutually exclusive circumstances and have zero bearing on one another in any analysis that would expose any sort of indicator for some direct causality.

This is like I saw a shooting star, this means she loves me 

[Bryan63]

Y'all can hope for the 12/13th, I'm all in on the 19-21 marathon event that the GFS is showing for Eastern areas that will surely happen.