December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol right…Cuz it’s stupid. 

Not looking good. It's getting greener or not whiter.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

26.5th coming S of 12z fwiw-

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

26.5th coming S of 12z fwiw-

GFS going for a ice storm

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

26.5th coming S of 12z fwiw-

Yep

[WxWatcher007]

Absolute nuke in NNE. Icing down into CT. 
 

 at the surface temp cave from the 12z run

[dryslot]

That's a lot of snow up here.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, dryslot said:

That's a lot of snow up here.

We love to see it.

[Boston Bulldog]

18z GFS is probably the ceiling for this event in terms of intensity and snowfall totals. There would be some powerful zonally translating mid-level snowbands across CNE and NNE with that dynamic look. Verbatim a high end SWFE that successully jumps to the coast to lock in cold air

For more snow further south, we would need destructive interference to attenuate the shortwave a bit. A scenario like the Euro is still a good storm, but it's not a nuke like this GFS look.

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not looking good. It's getting greener or not whiter.

 

Ahh ya..a cutter I’ll do that.  Give me a break. 

[dryslot]

Can't really buy a juiced up northern stream s/w on the GFS without some help from the GOM.

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ahh ya..a cutter I’ll do that.  Give me a break. 

I don't know about this. Eric Webb guy. First of all, La Nina is already starting to fade. Just not buying what he's saying. There's a few other guys that I trust will who dive deep into the pattern with a whole different scenario of what's going to happen. I'm going to let this one just fly out the window. Don't see this outcome as the frontrunner at all at this point.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

18z GFS is probably the ceiling for this event in terms of intensity and snowfall totals. There would be some powerful zonally translating mid-level snowbands across CNE and NNE with that dynamic look. Verbatim a high end SWFE that successully jumps to the coast to lock in cold air

For more snow further south, we would need destructive interference to attenuate the shortwave a bit. A scenario like the Euro is still a good storm, but it's not a nuke like this GFS look.

There’s a fair amount of folks here who are looking for a big icer 

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Can't really buy a juiced up northern stream s/w on the GFS without some help from the GOM.

This.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Comical.
We still don't know how the next 8-10 might play out.  But whatever. 

If it were that simple, he would have already made a billion dollars in the energy sector!  Lol

[moneypitmike]

Fun week for NNE/CNE on GFS.

[ineedsnow]

No snow at the mother in laws but wachusett lit up 

[moneypitmike]

Nice view.  What town is she in?

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS going for a ice storm

DON'T get him started!

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Nice view.  What town is she in?

Ashburnham 1,367 asl great spot

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ashburnham 1,367 asl great spot

Yeah----probably the snowiest town in ORH county.   Outside of Lunenburg, of course.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Fun week for NNE/CNE on GFS.

South coasters in tubs with toasters

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

South coasters in tubs with toasters

Been there for five years. Why change now?

[ineedsnow]

Found this interesting 

Low confidence forecast continues Friday into next weekend as a
boundary will be separating very cold air/below normal temperatures to
our north and unseasonably mild temperatures to our southwest. There
is a high across Quebec and pattern recognition would indicate good
support for shallow cold air to invade southern New England. The 12z
ECMWF is most aggressive with the shallow cold air...especially on
Friday with daytime temperatures mainly in the 20s! Meanwhile...the
12z GFS is the mildest of the guidance with temperatures at the same
time in the 50s! The interesting thing is that the GFS AI model is
much colder and more similar to the ECMWF. Assume it is probably an
indication of past performance/pattern recognition. While we are not
sure it will be quite as cold as the ECMWF...we certainly want to
lean colder based on pattern recognition and support from the AI
guidance. But again...tremendous uncertainty continues in this
forecast.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

No snow at the mother in laws but wachusett lit up 

sweet spot!  

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

South coasters in tubs with toasters

While we haven't moved in down there yet (have a couple months of work to do before that happens), I do not think there will be any toaster--just envy.  Sort of like when PF is posting about his upslope when Kevin's posting about uninstalling.

While James had visions of blizzards every time he'd look at F300 panel, I have no expectations of snow down there.

[H2Otown_WX]

11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

While we haven't moved in down there yet (have a couple months of work to do before that happens), I do not think there will be any toaster--just envy.  Sort of like when PF is posting about his upslope when Kevin's posting about uninstalling.

While James had visions of blizzards every time he'd look at F300 panel, I have no expectations of snow down there.

Is Mattapoisett on the south coast? You should have stayed in the money pit. Didn't you used to be out in the Berkshires?

[moneypitmike]

9 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Is Mattapoisett on the south coast? You should have stayed in the money pit. Didn't you used to be out in the Berkshires?

Yup--south coast.  For many years, we lived in Shelburne in western Franklin County.

[lurker]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

No snow at the mother in laws but wachusett lit up 

This was the sunset yesterday with the lights from Pats Peak visible to the right:

 

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, lurker said:

This was the sunset yesterday with the lights from Pats Peak visible to the right:

 

sweet spot! 

[Torch Tiger]

I have a <3 for all the west-facing ridgelines near those ORH hills and up into NH.