December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weatherwiz]

Someone in PA is going to get some significant icing. 

I don't see much room for this to get any farther north but SW CT may still be in the game for accumulating snow.

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, TalcottWx said:

Is Friday real? 

As far as I'm concerned, it's been gone at least 24 hours with the steady trend of the cold press. Like Will said, we need to see a reversal tonight... or it's gone

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Someone in PA is going to get some significant icing. 

I don't see much room for this to get any farther north but SW CT may still be in the game for accumulating snow.

We still have tomorrow and Thursday and most of the day Friday before the system comes into the area. Most seem to be writing this off because of the southward push on the models. I'm not saying this is definitely going to come north again, but there's a good chance that it will tick back North again, and even to a point where we're all in the game. I would say if this doesn't change by Thursday evening, it's a goner. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Someone in PA is going to get some significant icing. 

I don't see much room for this to get any farther north but SW CT may still be in the game for accumulating snow.

Unreal that it went from a rain event to a whiff.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unreal that it went from a rain event to a whiff.

Who do we need to sacrifice?

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unreal that it went from a rain event to a whiff.

Whenever I shake my head in disgust I just remind myself that it's a failure of imagination. Since 2017-18 winter has found the most creative and excruciating ways possible to pork SNE. A few days ago we were worried about a mild end to December, and now there's so much cold press a SNE rainer is now congrats DC to NYC. It's unreal. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Who do we need to sacrifice?

I hadn't realized that SSW in latter November was barely a reversal....Larry pointed it out to me in the ENSO thread. I think it's largely moot, anyway....I shouldn't have dismissed the eventual, lagged implications of that, which is why I missed this upcoming period of -NAO.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Whenever I shake my head in disgust I just remind myself that it's a failure of imagination. Since 2017-18 winter has found the most creative and excruciating ways possible to pork SNE. A few days ago we were worried about a mild end to December, and now there's so much cold press a SNE rainer is now congrats DC to NYC. It's unreal. 

Much of  SENY just north of the city will have 20-30” of snow this December after Saturday AM if the gfs verifies. While SNE is around 1-5” excluding the mountains. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Whenever I shake my head in disgust I just remind myself that it's a failure of imagination. Since 2017-18 winter has found the most creative and excruciating ways possible to pork SNE. A few days ago we were worried about a mild end to December, and now there's so much cold press a SNE rainer is now congrats DC to NYC. It's unreal. 

If this January is like last January, I'm going to have someone string me up by my ball bag and just leave me swaying in the wind....just end it.

[Typhoon Tip]

it wasn't a canonical SSW behavior in the sense that there was no propagation for one. 

But, we had a near or at historic solar storm around then. I'm entertaining the possibility that the models were caught off guard by the solar flux arriving around the time they were modeling an intrusion event, and irradiating/breaking up crucial ozone densities - ozone is an important thermal conductor in the physics.

The other aspect ...as I pointed this out at the time, it was not very clear in the modeling whether it was emerging above 50hPa level.  It appeared to actually to be a punch up from the below from the topospheric bulge associated with the ( at the time) still being modeled N. Pacific height anomaly - they certainly did a good job with that ... just fantastically persistent feature.  It resulted cold loading into the N/A either way so ... who's quibbling.  

I think there was some interpretation misuse going on at the time et al. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

it wasn't a canonical SSW in the sense that there was no propagation for one. 

But, we had a near or at historic solar storm and I'm entertaining the possibility that the models were caught off guard by the solar flux arriving around the time they were modeling an intrusion event.

The other aspect ...as I pointed this out at the time, it was not very clear in the modeling whether it was emerging above 50hPa level.  It appeared to actually to be a punch up from the below from the topospheric bulge associated with the ( at the time) still being modeled N. Pacific height anomaly - they certainly did a good job with that ... just fantastically persistent feature.   

I think there was some interpretation misuse going on at the time et al. 

Definitely bottom up.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely bottom up.

right, not an SSW

[DavisStraight]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unreal that it went from a rain event to a whiff.

Rather a whiff than rain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right, not an SSW

Same result, though...still got the lagged NAO.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Whenever I shake my head in disgust I just remind myself that it's a failure of imagination. Since 2017-18 winter has found the most creative and excruciating ways possible to pork SNE. A few days ago we were worried about a mild end to December, and now there's so much cold press a SNE rainer is now congrats DC to NYC. It's unreal. 

I might even whiff if the models dont stop trending south.

[Typhoon Tip]

Pistol to head?     this January will be very close to:

    ...quite specific to that range, too.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same result, though...still got the lagged NAO.

Agreed.  I added this sentiment to that missive, " It resulted cold loading into the N/A either way so ... who's quibbling.  " 

But also, the Pacific --> N. America total wave signature is what creates the NAO btw.   Not you per se, but folks may save some frustration if they finally get their minds wrapped around that.  It's the mechanics downstream from the PNA domains idiosyncratic wave distribution.  One of the reasons it's so difficult for the models is because it's largely driven to emergence through non-linear function - those that are applying forcing in a transitive interference, which are not visible.    Just sayn'

[klw]

It sounds like we can definitively declare winter's back is broken.  Can I hold off until New Year's before I install?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed.  I added this sentiment to that missive, " It resulted cold loading into the N/A either way so ... who's quibbling.  " 

But also, the Pacific --> N. America total wave signature is what creates the NAO btw.   Not you per se, but folks may save some frustration if they finally get their minds wrapped around that.  It's the mechanics downstream from the PNA domains idiosyncratic wave distribution.  One of the reasons it's so difficult for the models is because it's largely driven to emergence through non-linear function - those that are applying forcing in a transitive mode that is often not visible.    Just sayn'

Should be me....I struggle to wrap my mind around that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pistol to head?     this January will be very close to:

    ...quick specific to that range, too.

Implication being that they are all the same due to CC, but thing is they really aren't....I can tell you right now now this month won't be January 2024 or January 2020. Probably closer to 2022.

[WxWatcher007]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If this January is like last January, I'm going to have someone string me up by my ball bag and just leave me swaying in the wind....just end it.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Should be me....I struggle to wrap my mind around that.

ooh ooh I can help.   

Image a rope, and your snapping one end ... you'll see a wave move along the rope?  

that is the linear function/wave propagation.   Now imagine that there are multiple wave functions propagating at once.  You might have seen this experience in science... but what happens is the waves organize into a patterns that so long as the input force is proximal to steady, will then enter what is called 'resonance' - that resonance is a predictable standing wave event.   

What we are seeing in the Pacific northern arc out there is a remarkable case of resonance occurring at very large synoptic scale... the NAO that downs stream of that as a secondary resonance node on the "rope".      

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

While results haven’t been where we expect them to be…it’s felt like a winter month. MR-LR is starting to look better too, honestly. I think Jan delivers. 

[SouthCoastMA]

ultimate final boss nut punch is the followup cutter after the whiff to Bermuda

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Implication being that they are all the same due to CC, but thing is they really aren't....I can tell you right now now this month won't be January 2024 or January 2020. Probably closer to 2022.

hahahaha.... damn!  thought I got one past you.   

That part of it's a chode tug just cause I was being a dick, but I do see similarities among these years whether we/you/I want to see it or admit or not - and... I don't claim that it is CC outright.  I am open to that being the case but more seriously, there was a speed/velocity saturation in the flow every one of these years that is/was/still is near the top of the geophysical ceiling during winter core.   

There's a reason all these air-land airline speed records have been set in the last 10 to 15 years, for those intercontinental flights over the N Pac and Atlantic. It's because they're traveling in the slip stream of mega jets, where they have to open the throttle and fly very fast to maintain lift ... which requires near sonic speeds relative to the stationary E... It's 200 kt 300 mb wind flow ... you gotta move the 60 ton vehicle at 600 mph to maintain the air-relative 500 whatever mph it is they need to stay fuel efficient ...etc.  

So regardless of the reason ( CC or the CD ) ... It's probably going to be observable in January ...again.  It's based upon persistence for now. 

[TalcottWx]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Who do we need to sacrifice?

A Mainer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hahahaha.... damn!  thought I got one past you.   

That part of it's a chode tug just cause I was being a dick, but I do see similarities among these years whether we/you/I want to see it or admit or not - and... I don't claim that it is CC outright.  I am open to that being the case but more seriously, there was a speed/velocity saturation in the flow every one of these years that is/was/still is near the top of the geophysical ceiling during winter core.   

There's a reason all these air-land airline speed records have been set in the last 10 to 15 years, for those intercontinental flights over the N Pac and Atlantic. It's because they're traveling in the slip stream of mega jets, where they have to open the throttle and fly very fast to maintain lift ... which requires near sonic speeds relative to the stationary E... It's 200 kt 300 mb wind flow ... you gotta move the 60 ton vehicle at 600 mph to maintain the air-relative 500 whatever mph it is they need to stay fuel efficient ...etc.  

So regardless of the reason ( CC or the CD ) ... It's probably going to be observable in January ...again.  It's based upon persistence for now. 

Yes, the speed of flow is a common theme...I thought you meant the overall patterns.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Man RRFS is the perfect replacement for the NAM, it jumps around just as much as it's drunk brother run to run .. Some of the radar hallucinations will be epic on Friday night .. FGEN bands crushing Syracuse headed right for SNE but wake up Saturday morning just to see it's still brown out .. 

[Torch Tiger]

Solid burst of snow, roads covered

[Fozz]

We all want the ICON to be right about Friday/Saturday but it must be a worse model than I thought if even that isn’t bringing any hopium.