December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully something like the HRRR verifies https://x.com/dhtheweathernut/status/2001627717314449651?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Even better lol

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Even better lol

Better gas up the generator.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Think Norwell was the sweet spot but probably not 150”. 
 

Only storm where I might have undermeasured was that 3 day event in Feb. 

Based on the ridiculous amount of time I’ve spent in my life looking at snowstorm totals and maps, I think the sweet spot was in the 130-140 range in a narrow corridor from Blue Hill to just south of you a few miles inland. Hard to empirically support 150”…not impossible but unlikely. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Even better lol

Looks like 58-59 degrees too. 
If only that map could actually verify . There’d be a ton of happy folks 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 2” left OTG here will go quicker than Ray’s plate of cheesy fries at Funky Murphy’s 

I don't eat crap like that anymore.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

What do you guys use to measure snow ratios?  Just a rain gauge and melt and calculate? 

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That 77” in Se ORH county looks way off. Which coop was that? I doubt Milford since Milford isn’t that bad of a coop. If it’s Northbridge, beware…I used to toss them regularly.

I was out there for work back then, no way that's accurate.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like 58-59 degrees too. 

It will be 53 here

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What do you guys use to measure snow ratios?  Just a rain gauge and melt and calculate? 

I use the Stratus rain guage with a 1/4" thick piece of cedar siding which I slide under as I take a core. Melt and pour into inner guage

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It will be 53 here

Near 60

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Based on the ridiculous amount of time I’ve spent in my life looking at snowstorm totals and maps, I think the sweet spot was in the 130-140 range in a narrow corridor from Blue Hill to just south of you a few miles inland. Hard to empirically support 150”…not impossible but unlikely. 

Yeah I can role with that. I worked that storm so it’s the only one where I felt that I could be off by 3-5”.  I just remember thinking holy shit did I really get like 33-34”? Especially when I woke up to 3-4” more after that burst of snow we had from 8-11pm on the last night. So maybe I was near 130. It’s super tough in my spot when we have wind. 

[OrangeCTWX]

Looks like there is now an AI version of the GFS on TT. Add yet another model for us to use !

[Layman]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Even better lol

Any likelihood of delays at Logan early Saturday morning?

Our son is taking a redeye out of LAX into BOS arriving at 5:30am.  We're staying overnight about 20 minutes away to pick him up bright and early but am curious what the outlook is for possible delays.  

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What do you guys use to measure snow ratios?  Just a rain gauge and melt and calculate? 

Yes, I use the stratus for that.

[ariof]

19 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

that was a hell of a year, from straight rat to #1 for BOS all time. talk about a back loaded winter

150.8 at Blue Hill

SNE Seasonal Snowfall

95" in 30 days is not only the highest 30-day snowfall in BOS, but more than any 30-day period in any major city in the country. (BUF had 80" in a week in Dec 2001 but very little on either side; Orchard Park has seen more but BUF is a smaller city and the totals are banded mesoscale, not the synoptic 90"+ around BOS.) I think Sapporo has had a couple of 100" months, and it's probably the only large (2m+) city to have ever seen a heavier 30-day snowfall than that 30-day period in BOS.

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Looks like there is now an AI version of the GFS on TT. Add yet another model for us to use !

Fantastic. More A.I. garbage in, garbage out content

[weatherwiz]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Fantastic. More A.I. garbage in, garbage out content

But AI handled the advection of cirrus clouds very well between the hours of 9:00 PM - 12:00 AM so maybe it will do well the next time we have cirrus advecting in!!!!!!!!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Fantastic. More A.I. garbage in, garbage out content

Our robot overlords will remember heresy like this...

[CoastalWx]

I asked @OceanStWx about that and supposedly it had better results over GFS op (early testing anyways) but didn’t perform as well in anomalous events which one would expect when a model is training on past events. 
 

The other thing he said is that each vertical level is trained independently, so it’s possible the 500mb pattern may not match what you’d think to see for MSLP. 

[WxWatcher007]

Hopefully we’re locking into that 23rd period. Would be a nice festive snow for many. Solid chill locks in for the Christmas period immediately after.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I can role with that. I worked that storm so it’s the only one where I felt that I could be off by 3-5”.  I just remember thinking holy shit did I really get like 33-34”? Especially when I woke up to 3-4” more after that burst of snow we had from 8-11pm on the last night. So maybe I was near 130. It’s super tough in my spot when we have wind. 

I think your area had more in 1996...I know I did.

[weathafella]

The thing about 2014-15 is that 100+ happened in a 6 week period.  Absolutely unprecedented for coastal sne.

[brooklynwx99]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I asked @OceanStWx about that and supposedly it had better results over GFS op (early testing anyways) but didn’t perform as well in anomalous events which one would expect when a model is training on past events. 
 

The other thing he said is that each vertical level is trained independently, so it’s possible the 500mb pattern may not match what you’d think to see for MSLP. 

lol what the hell is the point of that then

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hopefully we’re locking into that 23rd period. Would be a nice festive snow for many. Solid chill locks in for the Christmas period immediately after.

Yeah starting to get some model convergence on it. 06z Euro was a little juicier than the 12z GFS but both have it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what the hell is the point of that then

The point is to get it operational and garner experience....like a rookie QB.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The point is to get it operational and garner experience....like a rookie QB.

Exactly!  As events occur, deep learning should ultimately improve the results.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The point is to get it operational and garner experience....like a rookie QB.

I've noticed that a lot of the AI stuff does pretty poorly with anomalous Atlantic blocks. they often struggle to get them to develop and wash them out too quickly when they occur. might make sense with the fact that they struggle with anomalous outcomes and they "smooth" things out a bit 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what the hell is the point of that then

I think it was just a caveat, but it didn’t seem like it was a big concern. 

[dendrite]

34 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Looks like there is now an AI version of the GFS on TT. Add yet another model for us to use !

They had the big announcement yesterday. 

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models

[CoastalWx]

I’d like that Tuesday deal not to rip well into Canada. It’s going to go north, but would like to avoid this ending in 35F drizzle.