December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[mreaves]

7 hours ago, tamarack said:

At the time of the ice storm, we lived about 2 miles southeast from where the Maine Turnpike merges with I-295.  Had ice 1.5"-1.75" and more damage on our 0.8-acre house lot than on the 62 acres of woodland where we've lived since May of 1998.  Much of the precip there bounced rather than stuck.  The greatest accretion I saw was on Greenwood Hill in Hebron, about 10 miles NW from @Dryslot.  Over 2.5", first-year twigs had ice the size of a Pringles can.
The most amazing fact to me, even beyond the NYC/Allagash difference, was the NH "sandwich".  While Gorham was nearly all rain and MWM was setting a new record high temp for January, in between at ~1500-2500 elev. it was total disaster.  When I first saw that the following summer, I thought it was clearcuts.

I remember taking a trip for work up to a paper mill north of Montreal that spring. The damage was stunning. 

[WinterWolf]

Looks like the machines are gonna win this. GFS looks to be caving.

[mreaves]

5 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Radar coverage in this area is abysmal. Still waiting for them to stick a WSR-88D on top of Ascutney. One can dream...

That would do the entire eastern side of Vermont some good. 

[eduggs]

I don't think the 0z NAM is much better aloft, if at all, than 18z. The RGEM is a little worse. The GFS and ICON are a little better. Kind of a wash so far for 0z. I think this is heading towards a scraper or light event unless we see clear positive trends very soon.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I don't think the 0z NAM is much better aloft, if at all, than 18z. The RGEM is a little worse. The GFS and ICON are a little better. Kind of a wash so far for 0z. I think this is heading towards a scraper or light event unless we see clear positive trends very soon.

Ignoring all the AI models?

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ignoring all the AI models?

I was speculating where I think this is heading, not summarizing what all models are showing. I hope some of the wetter AI model solutions are right. But even they are relatively dry outside of southeastern areas. And they haven't shown a clear positive trend either.

The trof is positively tilted and the PV is pretty far east. That's not a great height field orientation to work with... especially as we approach the short range.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian back to a scraper. Big step back from 12z.

 

Im afraid we are moving towards a consensus. Gfs improved, and the models that were pretty good are moving towards the gfs and meeting in the middle, which amours to very little snow 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

CMC went from a solid 3-5” snowfall across much of SNE at 12z to flurries outside the cape at 00z

[brooklynwx99]

the CMC isn’t that far off from the ECMWF, the ECMWF is just a bit deeper

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the CMC isn’t that far off from the ECMWF, the ECMWF is just a bit deeper

No, but if was a step back from 12z thougb

[Torch Tiger]

if I had to choose any models (thus far) to run with, it'd be the 12z/18z euro ai.  Maybe a tad toned down

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No, but if was a step back from 12z thougb

Ukie getting better 

[Torch Tiger]

I don't like that the rgem and ggem are more like the gfs op as the main drivers/features become better sampled lol

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I don't like that the rgem and ggem are more like the gfs op as the main drivers/features become better sampled lol

The GFS just improved. 

[WinterWolf]

35 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

CMC went from a solid 3-5” snowfall across much of SNE at 12z to flurries outside the cape at 00z

But that model is trash…no matter what. 

[Snowcrazed71]

36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No, but if was a step back from 12z thougb

Did yo mama slap you that hard as a child and rename you negative nelly? It's almost impossible for you to pick up on anything good. 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The GFS just improved. 

yeah h5 looked more disjointed last night at this time, at least the eventual evolution. 0z yesterday an initial s/w went through and started to dig, and took the second piece of energy along with it.  gfs doing it's weird shit

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

holding strong on the long range gfs is the mother of cutters

 

 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

holding strong on the long range gfs is the mother of cutters

 

 

Talk about weird shit…that isn’t happening. 

[MJO812]

Euro cut back even down here. Looking like 1-3 here .

[Torch Tiger]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Talk about weird shit…that isn’t happening. 

it's way out there, so the timing is probably off, but it's probably gonna happen. Big changes.  That doesn't necessarily mean "torch", as Dendrite and others pointed out the past few days.  The big relaxation signal is not going away just yet.

Also, not a bad thing if you're in the mood to roll the dice/shake it up 

(Sorry NNE?   or not ) 

 

[wxsniss]

0z EC: can see the worse outcome well before... at 72h 0z Sunday the PV center ticked slightly east over Lake Huron instead of Lake Michigan... that slight tick is enough to smush heights downstream and keep the trough more positive... 

Models are vacillating between SNE graze vs. 1-3/2-5... (and though hard to explain, it does strangely seem to correlate with 6z/18z vs. 0z/12z). Probably won't lock in for another 24 hours or so. I'm still favoring at least advisory in southeast areas.

[wxsniss]

Maybe the most negative steady trend today is both Euro-AIFS and EPS incrementally pulling away for 4 cycles since 6z today

 

[ineedsnow]

6 NAM is meh for all

[SouthCoastMA]

6z GFS is a clean whiff. 

On to 12/21?

[Modfan2]

35F currently in E CT, and very slippery outside. We got about .17” of rain

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Bleh, this sucks. Get ready for the cutters 

[UnitedWx]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

Ignoring all the AI models?

Always... well usually. 

[Damage In Tolland]

All overnight ensembles still have it so we are good for now 

[Brewbeer]

currently 36/28, partly cloudy, occasional north breeze