December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Oh, that just must be a gap then. This was forecasted as recently as this morning to be a change over to rain, but that doesn’t look like it’s happening. Turning out to be a good little refresher.

The beam is too high for western NH and like I’ve said before, the GYX siting is going to hell with trees. View ENX to see what’s west of us, but just remember when the flow flips westerly, the enhanced upslope over VT/W MA won’t make it out way. I think we’re good until about 10pm with varying intensity.

[cut]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Drive up to Aroostook a couple days after…the ice on the way up was immense in central areas.  And yes, that’s why we went up…the northern part of the county was buried.  It was a scene for sure. 

I hit Mad River Glen a few days later - insane. Glades closed as there was massive tree damage and dangling limbs everywhere.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The beam is too high for western NH and like I’ve said before, the GYX siting is going to hell with trees. View ENX to see what’s west of us, but just remember when the flow flips westerly, the enhanced upslope over VT/W MA won’t make it out way. I think we’re good until about 10pm with varying intensity.

A refresher of 2” is a win

[MJO812]

Gfs is a miss

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs actually looks worse than the miss at 12z

[ORH_wxman]

At least we have the old EE rule in effect. 

[brooklynwx99]

euro and CMC keep the main TPV lobe farther west, GFS and ICON have it leaking east which suppresses heights downstream

[dendrite]

That GFS run looks wildly f’ed up. Almost like it didn’t run correctly. There’s all kinds of wtf with the PV and vorticity.

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs actually looks worse than the miss at 12z

 

[dendrite]

Actually it may be a COD mapping issue?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

euro and CMC keep the main TPV lobe farther west, GFS and ICON have it leaking east which suppresses heights downstream

 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That GFS run looks wildly f’ed up. Almost like it didn’t run correctly. There’s all kinds of wtf with the PV and vorticity.

 

They are like one congealed mass of elongated TPV on the GFS/Icon…but esp the GFS. They stay much more independent on euro/canadian and NAM (if we care about clown range NAM)

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

They are like one congealed mass of elongated TPV on the GFS/Icon…but esp the GFS. They stay much more independent on euro/canadian and NAM (if we care about clown range NAM)

Yeah see my post above…COD had some issues. Looks like COD has been doing this for awhile too. I had been using Pivotal more. Maybe Piv has better smoothing of the datapoints.

[moneypitmike]

Just went out to walk the dog.....a fair amount of glaze on the roads.  Even though it's 35*, the pavement must be still cold from the  past couple days.

RN/ZR/SN mix.

35*

Miserable

 

EDIT:  Temp down to 33.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The beam is too high for western NH and like I’ve said before, the GYX siting is going to hell with trees. View ENX to see what’s west of us, but just remember when the flow flips westerly, the enhanced upslope over VT/W MA won’t make it out way. I think we’re good until about 10pm with varying intensity.

Radar coverage in this area is abysmal. Still waiting for them to stick a WSR-88D on top of Ascutney. One can dream...

[moneypitmike]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The beam is too high for western NH and like I’ve said before, the GYX siting is going to hell with trees. View ENX to see what’s wes t of us, but just remember when the flow flips westerly, the enhanced upslope over VT/W MA won’t make it out way. I think we’re good until about 10pm with varying intensity.

Yup--I'm in a area where radar shows me in a state of continual drought.

[dendrite]

So yeah…H5 comparison valid 6z Sunday. We want the PV back toward Mackinac Island…not the QB/ON border.

EC > NAM > GFS > ICON

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Just went out to walk the dog.....a fair amount of glaze on the roads.  Even though it's 35*, the pavement must be still cold from the  past couple days.

RN/ZR/SN mix.

35*

Miserable

Just warm enough here that my road wasn't bad during the dog walk.  Part of it might be the condition of the road... not really smooth is an understatement

[FlashFreeze]

Rain has switched over to snow in Winsted 36°

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

They are like one congealed mass of elongated TPV on the GFS/Icon…but esp the GFS. They stay much more independent on euro/canadian and NAM (if we care about clown range NAM)

The question becomes. Is one more right than the other, and by how much.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Balmy 50F

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The question becomes. Is one more right than the other, and by how much.

If you want some tiebreakers, the 12z ggem, 12z ukie, and 18z rgem all held it back  over the Great Lakes as well.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, dendrite said:

If you want some tiebreakers, the 12z ggem, 12z ukie, and 18z rgem all held it back  over the Great Lakes as well.

Guess that’s a decent sign. I saw the Ukie earlier and thought it could blow it up a little, but it didn’t 

[dendrite]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Guess that’s a decent sign. I saw the Ukie earlier and thought it could blow it up a little, but it didn’t 

18z gefs mean is east with it like the op.

[Lava Rock]

1". Pingers now. 28f

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[Snowcrazed71]

ok... So not horrible ( especially that it's a map from the NWS ). 

[TheMainer]

About 3 inches down and snowing at a good clip, half way to my Wish-cast of 6". 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

18z gefs mean is east with it like the op.

Blek 

[KoalaBeer]

Brick sidewalks are a literal death trap in Portland right now. Almost just died getting home from work, had to shuffle walk like a duck. 32 and light rain.

[MJO812]

Christmas miracle 

[Baroclinic Zone]

20 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

1". Pingers now. 28f

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