December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d love to see snowfall through this date with these types of departures in other years. Bet it isn’t 0

Snowfall though is generally more tied into precipitation departures versus temperature departures at our latitude...though there are exceptions to this too. Right now we are in a snow drought cycle so correlations will be weaker, but once we get back on track for a several year stretch, you will notice the correlation to snowfall is quite high with regard to precipitation anomalies versus temperature.

[MJO812]

Gfs is very weak . Putrid.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs is very weak . Putrid.

The altostratus looks amazing.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually after going through the last few winters...I would much rather than one shortwave every 10 days. 

There clearly is meteorological reasonings and physics involved as to why these fast flows with many shortwaves just don't pan out. I legit am starting to believe the mindset now of "rather having many shortwaves and hoping it pans out" is just a defensive mechanism to try and bring hope to something which just isn't there. 

 

Nominate for best Post of the month, perhaps year.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I do like the cold temps because it allows for snowmaking at my local ski hill.  

I would love for everyone to get snow, but that seems rare lately.

[MJO812]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The altostratus looks amazing.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs doesn’t even have a storm. See ya

[weathafella]

Gfs lost any semblance of an event over the weekend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just check the ens. before jumping.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Gfs lost any semblance of an event over the weekend.

It's still there but it gets ground up by low heights to our northeast. I actually thought it might improve at first because it was lsightly better out west....but the vortex to our northeast keeps the flow too flat to allow the WAA to get going. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

Seems we are in a warm/wet, cold/dry type pattern in SNE. 42 and rain tomorrow followed by frigid temps, again. SMH

Its just like the 80s

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

Its just like the 80s

We actually have 1980s low temps too this time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's still there but it gets ground up by low heights to our northeast. I actually thought it might improve at first because it was lsightly better out west....but the vortex to our northeast keeps the flow too flat to allow the WAA to get going. 

I'm sure it will get going in earnest in advance of the next storm, though

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's still there but it gets ground up by low heights to our northeast. I actually thought it might improve at first because it was lsightly better out west....but the vortex to our northeast keeps the flow too flat to allow the WAA to get going. 

Yeah and so far all the JV models agree so one should expect the euro to follow suit.  GFS AI actually has a better event but also a step backwards.

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

But that's just the thing...fast flows are unlikely to leas to numerous moderate events and even minor ones seem difficult to come by and are typically regulated to either far interior or elevation (depending on thermal profile). But this is the point I am getting at which Ray alluded too. We keep putting hope in these will work out but there are meteorological reasons (which Ray pointed out) which explain why that more often than not, they just aren't going to work out. 

I also don't necessarily think its a concept of letting the past cloud our judgement in the present, but more of a product of better understanding the atmosphere and how it works. Think of how many forecasts there have been these last few winters with maps getting tossed out 3 days in advance with big calls and everyone getting hyped up over amped solutions...then well inside the 3 days the models back off and all of a sudden snowfall maps are being lowered and lowered...right up to the day of the storm. Understanding this type of regime and the bias to amp in the medium range, as a forecaster, you would develop a sense of playing it more safe versus going aggressive, knowing there is a decent chance the models back off. 

But historically a slower pattern with less energy does yield much higher odds and probabilities. This holds true during the severe season too (out west). When you have troughs digging across the Plains but with tons of shortwaves...that tends to lead to destructive interference and hinder what appears to be an environment favorable for numerous supercells and tornadoes (because STP/SCP are off the charts) and the forecasts busts. 

To be clear, I do not like this “torpedo” pattern for SNE. I’m just not convinced that we improve our odds of success or make out better snowfall wise with a dramatically slower pattern.

And certainly it’s better for tracking mentally than having everyone here placing all their chips in D10 long shots and complaining about lack of activity in between.

[CTWeatherFreak]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We finally have a very cold pattern with multiple chances....but if they don't produce, the knives are out even fiercer.

This definitely proves it's all about the snow though....we've said it for years. 90% of the forum doesn't care if you are no longer in a torch regime or if you are -10 departures on the month if it isn't going to snow. 

In past years, everybody hung their hats on the hope that an SSW would materialize.. Well this year, we had one. And it did bring the PV and the cold.  but  the rest of the equation seems to be lacking so far.

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d love to see snowfall through this date with these types of departures in other years. Bet it isn’t 0

You can look up some of these years. Here’s the “bottom 10” coldest Dec 1-8 periods for CON, ORH, BOS, and BDL

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To be clear, I do not like this “torpedo” pattern for SNE. I’m just not convinced that we improve our odds of success or make out better snowfall wise with a dramatically slower pattern.

And certainly it’s better for tracking mentally than having everyone here placing all their chips in D10 long shots and complaining about lack of activity in between.

Canadian torpedos a low into Lake Ontario. lol. I’m ready to turn my Christmas tree into one. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian torpedos a low into Lake Ontario. lol. I’m ready to turn my Christmas tree into one. 

Just take the mean of the GFS and GGEM

[HoarfrostHubb]

1989 is so glaring on that.  I had a job over that winter semester break working at a fish hatchery in Nashua, tagging salmon fry.  That was fun

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Just take the mean of the GFS and GGEM

That would mean something favorable.  

[klw]

Does anyone remember the winter of 81-82?   The Mansfield stake is tracking it very closely so far.  (Not a basis to make predictions but it made me realize I don't remember much about that winter. Though to be fair to me I was living in NJ and in 7th grade.)

 

https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian is a continuation of what we’ve been seeing for weeks. Clipper is potent, but tracks through NNE and rains SNE.

[tavwtby]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Isn’t today the 9th…? 

yeah I wasn't sure what I was thinking there, the plot showed the whole month, made me think it was later date, it was early my brain wasn't working 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, klw said:

Does anyone remember the winter of 81-82?   The Mansfield stake is tracking it very closely so far.  (Not a basis to make predictions but it made me realize I don't remember much about that winter. Though to be fair to me I was living in NJ and in 7th grade.)

 

https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

 

 

That was a big winter and quite cold....esp January '82. Very cold month with decent snow. Same month as the Air Florida crash into the Potomic with lots of ice in the river. Dec '81 was very snowy in New England both north and south. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That was a big winter and quite cold....esp January '82. Very cold month with decent snow. Same month as the Air Florida crash into the Potomic with lots of ice in the river. Dec '81 was very snowy in New England both north and south. 

Wasn’t that also the Philly to Boston April storm?

[codfishsnowman]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For sure. We love each other but regional jealousy and hatred is a thing. Isn't that why the board was broken up into subforums?

I mean, in the Mid-Atlantic the DC-Baltimore folks scoff at the highland folks. The RIC crew have to tread carefully when suppression favors them and bite their tongue when DC cashes in. Even here...I know we joke...but while I'd love to post more about the turn of events that has me getting crushed in SLK, nobody in CT or Mass really gives a damn about my upslope or clipper overperformances or -14 lows, and the NNE crew does not want to see backslapping from Chief Wiggum to Kev on a southern slider. 

The annual wintertime snow wars are unlike any other meteorological phenomena. It is wishing for your brother to fail. It is rejoicing in the ruin of your friend. It is hand to hand combat.

I want everyone to be happy, sincerely, but God as my witness if the folks along the CT coast have to rain for me to get a foot of paste, I want it. If everyone south or east of me blowtorches in a Grinch storm cutting through Binghamton on Christmas Eve while I'm buried in SLK with SN+, I will sleep like a baby.

I know others feel the exact same way whether they want to admit it or not. 

This was a really fun post to read 

 

[dryslot]

I shouldn't have a spine left if i received all the snow that the GGEM has had.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wasn’t that also the Philly to Boston April storm?

Yeah same season....April '82 was the cold blizzard. 

[tavwtby]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a big winter and quite cold....esp January '82. Very cold month with decent snow. Same month as the Air Florida crash into the Potomic with lots of ice in the river. Dec '81 was very snowy in New England both north and south. 

wasn't Feb of 82 one of the KUs we got? I thought 82 or 83 because I remember everyone freaking out because it wasn't far removed from 78